Can/will Obama win California?

We all know how important Super Tuesday is to the democratic nomination. It's almost a sure thing that Hillary will win her home state, New York, can Obama win an equally important (or even more important since there is more delegates to be had) California?

This is a two part question:

a)can he win California? (or will Hillary run away with CA?)
b) will he win California?

He's built up a lot of excitement there from what I've read.

They've been of little/no help so far.

They were trustworthy In Iowa (See the DMR poll), and the Republican polls for NH were pretty spot on as well.

opposite of reality.

Anecdotal, I know, but most Dems I know are voting Obama. You don't see many Clinton stickers around here.

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The LA and Bay areas seem chock full of Bam endorses and supporters. Not sure about the other areas though....

I have no idea if he will. The old polls were based on familiarity like the national polls.

Mass has a lot of delegates as well. I thought Clinton would have the advantage there until Obama scored a couple of important endorsements. That could be the difference on who wins the feb 5 delegate count.

but i don't remember by how much. could he win here, i think yes and we have a lot of pissed off people here right now over the Governors proposed draconian budge cuts.

But that was the only the second one to show the trend breaking away from Clinton. I don't know if that's continued or it stalled or reversed or what.

i'd like to see where the republicans are at as well.

Californians have a way of going with the crowd and loving one liners. You have to win the PR war here. TV matters and so do stupid forwarded e-mails

There has been no poll since the end of last year but Hillary had commanding leads then. The "poll of polls" average is 50% for Hillary, 23% for Obama, and 13% for Edwards. Kucinich and Richardson were at 4%. One reason Obama is in trouble in the Golden State is he is doing poorly among Hispanics. It is hard to see him winning when losing by nearly forty points among Hispanics. You can expect the Obama campaign to put everything it has into California, though, since it is by far the biggest state and that may result in a win. Even if he loses getting 30% of California's delegates is much better than 20%. It is a better investment to get that extra 10% in California than to try to win a given small state or two.

and all of them are for either Hillary or Edwards.

Still leading, but no longer commanding. The situation may not have stayed that way, though. We won't know until new polls are taken.

He has no chance in some Super Tuesday states. California is not one of them. His lack of Hispanic support places him at a severe disadvantage, though in California. He is almost forty points behind among Hispanics. If he doesn't close that gap it is unlikely that he can win the white and black vote by enough to overcome the Hispanic vote.