Obama and the Hispanic-American vote Part II: Take #3 and final thoughts

Believe or not, this is the third time my long and detailed post about the topic has been somehow lost. First, power went out for a couple of seconds while I was typing, and somehow just now I closed the window in which I was writing this. So, my patience is gone, and I'll try to make my post as brief as I can, because I'm quite angry right now. I have spent about 2 hours on this and I won't spend more time on this.

Anyway, in Latin America, since the conquest, whites have for the most part dominated the political processes in the region. The only times non-whites have been elected to high ranking positions (including the presidency) have been times in which certain events have shaken up the process in a way that has allowed these figures to gain power. In other words, most non-whites that have been elected in Latin America as presidents have been elected under very special circumstances, and that includes the elections of the 3 current non-white presidents in Latin America, Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Republic (1996, 2004), Evo Morales from Bolivia (2005) and Hugo Chavez from Venezuela (1998, 2006).

Instead of going over each of the three cases to illustrate my point, I will let a fragment of this editorial piece by Dominican journalist Alcides Pimentel Paulino let you see what is the impact of the racial issues in Latin American politics in the Latin American electorate, in this case, Dominican Republic. Keep in mind however, that the Dominican Republic is probably the "darkest" country in the Latin America, with 90% of the population identifying itself as either mulatto or black. Also consider that the country has had, since its independence in 1844, more than 45 presidents, and only 4 of them have been either black or mulatto:



http://www.elnuevodiario.com.do/app/article.aspx?id=56403

What can be concluded is that the idea of a non-white president is a bizarre idea, or at least a rarity or a dream, for a enormous amount of Latin Americans of all races because of the reasons I explained in my first post.

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-What does this mean for Barack Obama in term of the Hispanic vote?

Well, it means several things, including that Hispanics in general will NOT automatically connect with him just because he's a non-white person like them. In fact, it has to be very shocking for many Latin Americans, my parents included, to see a country that they probably consider way more racist than their own (most Latin Americans consider their countries as much less racist than the US) very close of electing one. Add to that the fact that his main opponent on the Democratic side is a woman, and you have a very interesting situation in your hands.

However, Latin America has recently elected several women as presidents, and has shown to be way more open to the idea. Puerto Rico, Chile, Nicaragua, Panamá, Chile and Argentina have had (or currently have) a female president in the last 20 years, which is a great thing, but something that favors Hillary Clinton for a reason: like Hillary, the women that have been elected in Latin America have similar characteristics to her- white, economically and/or politically powerful women that have been in the high spheres of goverment for years, including the role of 1st Lady. Hillary Clinton is not only something that is already part of the Latin American political landscape, but she's also the wife of one of the most popular presidents this country has ever had. So, sexism among Hispanics will not really be a factor for Hillary, in my opinion.

Now, there is another interesting factor that WILL favor Obama among Hispanic voters: What Hispanics vote in the US? The most important voting blocs in the Hispanic community are:

-Cuban Americans
-Puerto Ricans
-Mexican-Americans
-Second generation Hispanics of other descents

If we think about it carefully, Barack Obama could be more succesful among the Cuban American community than Hillary Clinton for several reasons. First, old school Cuban American voters are overwhemingly Republican (and many of them sexist and racists) who will NOT vote for a Democrat. However, second and third generation Cuban Americans are much more liberal than their elders, many of them being moderates and Democrats who are tired of the old anti-Cuban policies we have seen from many administrations. These younger folks are much more open about racial and social issues, and Obama's message can resonate easily with them, especially with those right-leaning moderates who don't like the Clintons and those who are young enough not to remember those years.

With Puerto Ricans, Obama is doing quite well. He visited the island recently has the backing of fellow Chicagoan of Puerto Rican descent Luis Gutierrez, a very respected man among our community. Puerto Ricans and African-Americans have had, historically, a very good, solidary relationship, and for that reason Obama might also be quite appealing to second, third and fourth generation Puerto Ricans, while Hillary might be more appealing to recent Puerto Rican immigrants who are more influenced by the Latin American political school of thought and might be less receptive to the idea of a black man as president.

With Mexican-Americans, things are a bit more difficult for Obama. Sadly, the relationship between African-Americans and Mexican-Americans has not been as solid as we all would like for several reasons. The tensions and distrust between the two communities in big cities like NY, Chicago, LA and other places leads me to believe that many Mexican-Americans will look to Sen. Clinton much more favorably than to Sen. Obama, although that doesn't have to be the case: Obama's message in my opinion is much better than Sen. Clinton and he might be able to win many Mexican-American votes, but honestly, I don't think so.

With the newcomers, recent naturalized citizens from Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina and other places, I have noticed they WANT to be informed and to participate in the process. My girlfriend is from Argentina and even though she's not a citizen yet, she is very interested in the American political process and would like to vote as soon as she becomes one. She has been watching the debates and news channels very closely, and many Hispanics from other places who CAN vote are doing the same thing (politics is being the main topic of discussion around the Latin markets in Tampa lately). And, guess what? Most of these people SEEM TO BE UNDECIDED, AND ARE BASING THEIR OPINIONS ON WHAT THEY HEAR ON THE NEWS, HOPING THAT THE INFORMATION THEY GET WILL HELP THEM MAKE UP THEIR MIND. My girlfrend, for example, is impressed with Obama and doesn't like Hillary (that's why she's my GF... hehehehehe!), my best friend is Chilean and will vote this year, and likes Barack very much, but seems to be leaning towards Clinton, so are some Venezuelan female friends. My Cuban friend who will vote for the 1st time likes Edwards but will vote for Obama.

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Final thoughts:

*Barack Obama might have a tough time winning the Hispanic vote over, because of how Latin Americans perceive politics, especially in terms of race. However, he has what it takes to win many Hispanic votes over, especially those of young Hispanics born here in the States, who are way more comfortable with seeing blacks as role models or in positions of power and influence.

*Hillary Clinton might benefit from the Latin American political experience in winning the Hispanic vote, because she will seen as a much more "possible" scenario than Obama by Hispanic voters who have been influenced on how things are run back at home.

*A Barack Obama victory would send shockwaves throughout Latin America and would force the region to look at itself and think about how power has been distributed down there. It might serve as a source of pride and inspiration to the masses of non-whites and poor people who have been disenfranchised and kept away from political power in most Latin American countries for centuries.

Hell I bet Hugo could have beat Alan Keyes in Illinois if given a chance.

has everything to do with your OP. Hugo Chavez has already been there, done that.

and I want to add, that a vote for Barack is a vote for the world
....as he best represents many of its facets!

OBama's Stepfather, Mom and 1/2 sister


OBama and his father




OBama and his grandparents at his High School Graduation



Obama and his sister, Maya


Obama and his wife and their babies

I think the ongoing war will tend to sway the Hispanic vote somewhat away from Hillary. She can't back out of the fact that she voted for the IWR and Obama did not vote for the IWR.

When the US invaded Iraq, illegally, none of this should have surprised Latin Americans so much, as they should know rather well the history of US imperialism in its self-proclaimed 'backyard' invasions of virtually every Latin American country at one time or another.

With Hillary, can the Hispanic voter fear an invasion or covert operation against Venezuela to topple Chavez? Another 'Allende' coup in the works somewhere in South America which threatens a US business monopoly somewhere? Those are justified reasons to not support Hillary. Ask the Argentinians what they think of the former British Prime Minister Margarite Thather (i.e. the Malvinas Islands war). If the average Hispanic fears that Hillary will become a battle-ax as POTUS, she might not get as much support from the Spanish voters as one should expect.

Important point: Latin American female president, the socialist Michelle Bachelet of Chile, has treated victims of torture and she was a former torture victim herself. When you say Sept. 11 in Spanish and in Chile, it means something totally different in the mind of the South Americans.

Maybe the Hispanic voters have reason to hesitate voting for an African-American as POTUS, but I would also guess they would have a more stronger reason for voting against a war-mongering imperialist into office, too.

The pacifist-leaning President Jimmy Carter received 60% of the Hispanic vote. If Obama can contine to become identified with pacifism, and it's clear he's the only consistent pro-peace candidate outside of Dennis Kucinich, I believe he will be able to steal a significant percentage of Hispanic votes away from Hillary, maybe getting as much as Carter received in the 1976 campaign. If Jimmy Carter endorses Obama, maybe these political dynamics will change quite a bit in Obama's favor.

Thanks again for providing information and perspective!

someone knowledgeable providing a periodically updated list of prominent Latinos, including in particular Mexicanos, who have endorsed either HRC or Obama. Figures like Tony Anaya are very important.

Another factor is that some expect Hillary might well choose Richardson as her running mate. It's of course hard to gauge, but it is a question how much impact any such expectation might be.

Another issue that has been significant of late is the Repuke anti-immigration crusade. This is clearly emerging as a major issue in the 08 elections, and will shape (not sure how) the Democratic as well as Repuke campaigns.

At any rate, to future posts and research on this important topic.

It's unfortunate how the front-loading of the primaries to Tsunami Tuesday doesn't provide Obama with the time he needs to cultivate a broad political coalition. The inertia favoring whoever was best-known and the presumptive nominee at the outset of the election is enormous, in my arrogant opinion (IMAO)

I think Obama has wide appeal to Latino voters just like everybody else. I don't think it is necessary to speculate much about what that group would do, we know the general trend back to Dems as a result of typically overly hyped up Rep statements on immigration. That said, I support Richardson for VP because of his unique experience and his unusual crossover appeal that comes without a pricetag of principle, but as a side effect, it seems like it wouldn't hurt with Latinos.