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I think the Democrats will have a nominee with the prerequisite delegates in March or April. Pennsylvania is the last big state with a primary on April 22, so it might take that long. For prerequisite delegates, I include 50%+1 of delegates for both scenarios; stripped delegates seated and not seated.
I think a floor fight over delegate seating, could, unfortunately result in a walkout reminiscent of the 1948 Democratic National Convention where the Dixiecrats walked out a then proceeded to nominate Strom Thurmond for president.
As for the GOP, they'll probably choose theirs at Minneapolis. One must remember that when a nomination is brokered at the convention, a candidate who did not originally run could end up with the nomination. I can easily see the GOP factions choosing MS Gov. Haley Barbour or SC Gov. Mark Sanford as their nominee.
As for our side, I doubt that a brokered convention will occur due to the fact we have three main candidates left with two (Obama and Clinton) getting the lion's share of delegates. This despite the fact that mathematically speaking, we are the most likely of the two parties to have a brokered convention. Our delegate allocation is via proportional representation with a 15% minimum threshold whereas the GOP has a winner-take-all system. However, should I be proven wrong in my analysis and a DNC brokered nomination result with a compromise nominee selected and acceptable to all sides, one possible nominees is KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. She has a proven track record, is a proven vote getter, is acceptable to the grassroots and the moderate wings and would be acceptable to both the Obama (reformer) and Clinton (moderate, experienced, female) camps.
What sayeth you?
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