What's your take on John Edwards effect on the campaign?

(Yes, John Edwards DOES exist.)

The great mystery of the campaign right now is who Edwards helps or hurts.

Edwards himself is tonally more aligned with Obama. But the people who have actually voted for Edwards so far are natural Clinton supporters, tending, on average, to be working class and/or lower-middle class moderates.

Some think Edwards splits the anti-Clinton vote with Obama. Others think Edwards splits the traditional lunch-bucket Democratic coalition with Hillary.

What's your take?

but my guess is that his delegates would be fairly evenly split. So much can happen between now and the convention, it's really hard to say.

He was the VP candidate in 2004. He's been running for President since before Obama was a Senator.

Maybe?

No way around it.

out he'd have a chance at the nomination.

but in my experience people vote their demographics more than they vote policy. Edwards' real-world support looks nothing like his progressive support on the internet. His voters are the most conservative, not the most liberal.

So it's almost beyond argument that his presence in the race is helping Senator Obama.

To presume that Edwards and Obama are splitting the anti-Hillary vote suggests that the anti-Hillary vote is 60% of the party. I know that on DU it seems like 90% of the party, but there is no evidence in the real-world of that kind of antipathy toward Hillary within the party. The actual anti-Hillary vote in the Democratic primaries is probably about 20%. (Bear in mind that much of Obama's support is said to be positive... to be FOR something. So it's weird to assume his support is built on being against some individual. In the real world, Hillary is popular among Obama supporters, and visa-versa.

and say hello to President McCain

if that is true (that Edwards voters are the most conservative). I don't think there's much question that he's more liberal than Clinton or Obama. The Edwards voters I know are the most liberal and progressive. But maybe it's the down-home Southern persona that the conservative voters respond to. However, that's only good news for Edwards supporters, because it shows he has crossover appeal.

Look at how many Americans think Hillary is a communist, though around DU she's considered right wing.

on BOTH sides of the aisle. Getting them to talk about progressive issues first and foremost.

I really don't care about the media chosen candidates they are trying so hard to foist on me.
I've been at this too long and faced too many agonizing defeats to care whether Queen Hillary or Flavor of the Month Obama go down in flames.
I'll choose a Third party alternative first.
And yes, that may mean we get another Republican in the Whitehouse, but if that happens don't blame me, I'm supporting the man even Ralph Nader calls the Democratic party's best hope!

"People should not be afraid of their Governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.

That's right Baby, it's my way or the highway!

Obama is holding his own and may surpass Clinton regardless. With Edwards remaining in the race, it ensures those supporters remain loyal behind a candidate other than Hillary. Edwards won't advise his delegates to support Hillary in the end, that's a foregone conclusion. Where will they go? To Obama. In a nutshell, it's a means of ensuring Obama gets 'all' the Edwards supporters rather than just 'the larger half.'