For those who seem to think Obama can win a landslide victory and Clinton can't...

Look me straight in the face and tell me Obama can win the following states in A GENERAL ELECTION when it's all said and done:

ONCE AGAIN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION:
Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho.

Granted, he can win a nice win without these states, and Hillary can't win these states with the exception of Arkansas either, but I keep hearing from Obama's supporters that he can win a 60%+ win. I just don't see it. I can see Hillary winning Ohio, Iowa, and states of similar red/blue splits as can Obama. I don't see a 400+ EV win for either one.

Really? Do you actually believe he can overcome the Republican nature of those states?

I've had it with people screwing this stuff up.

DO CAPLOCKS MAKE YOU FEEL BIGGER!??

On edit: My point btw was lowered expectations.

And I've had it with people that launch poorly veiled ad hominem attacks based on their "concern."

I've discovered that people engage in selective reading.

Because that is what I think the race will be if we nominate her.
My feeling: no she can not.

Most of his voters don't vote anyway. Yes, he had an impact in 2000, but reasonable voters won't make that mistake again.

like Hillary. That is why Bloomberg is more likely to get in the race if we nominate her. You have seen how many DUers claim they would vote for Bloomberg, right?

I'm calling bullshit when it's all said and done. I think the Republican smear job over 9 months will make this another close election.

Independents - Obama 41%, Clinton 31%

A 10% difference = "barely" according to you. So what do you call Hillary's 2% win over Obama in NH? I can't wait for your response.

That's with the most favorable media coverage I have ever seen. Let the Republican smear machine get a hold of him.

They knew in 2000 that they could take this election away from the Dems, and after they did it- there were many who were proud of it. I wouldn't count him out for a second.

I'm in Nebraska, and NO - I don't think Obama can win here (i KNOW Hillary can't).

My concern is with the swing states.. the OH, FL, etc... in those states, I feel like Obama can win by 5% - 10%, and Hillary will lose by about that margin. Because people HATE her.. and she will rally the republican base. Few independants will cross over to vote for her.. they either vote for the Repug, or stay home.

Obama doesn't bring up that level of resentment in people. He won't rally the republicans - in fact some are actually lined up to vote FOR him.

Nebraska? No.. any republican will take my state (again, as per usual). But the states that matter.. the purple states seem to me to be the dealbreakers.

I don't see any difference between Obama and Hillary in their ability to win here.

Perky and several others keep hinting at the ability of Obama to win a huge mandate. I just don't see it. I think they are both equally electable. I don't think there's a difference.

I meant to say both Hillary and Obama can win Ohio and Florida.

It's very unlikely that any Dem could win those states. Clinton might be able to win Arkansas, especially if she picked Clark as a running mate.

No matter who gets the nomination, the election will be close. Hopefully not close enough to be easily stolen.

landslide unless Romney is their nominee. He offends rural Republicans which opens it up to us for a big win.

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is possibility. Projections are not such a lock. To argue from the optimistic side I would say, particularly in a national race above local racist focus, that the minority vote would be self-energized in way unparalleled since MLK "quietly" marshalled the South for JFK and the white dem pols saw advantage in that for them. JFK did not make such a big public deal about that and Obama doesn't even need to. To judge from the Black Caucus emotionally backing Obama in the specter of race issues arising in the campaign(A Black Caucus that did not exist in 1960) there will be a significant increase of black support- immune to the vicissitudes of ordinary campaign ups and downs. In other words. the South is in play and any state with a significant minority presence further augmented by actual representation and organization. It is not the epic heroics of the past but more simply a mountain in motion that cannot be stopped.

Call me an optimist although they will NEED that big momentum to overcome direct GOP assault on that constituency. If he puts ALL states in actual play with the 50 state strategy, he wins. If he goes South he will crack that GOP electoral base and win big. If Obama is going to go a bit vague and generally positive it must not be reflected in a cautious electoral strategy. The reason any of us would back him as strongly as Edwards is if he simply does that above all other things.

2000.2002,2004,2006. The difference is that a huge margin and overall effort is NEEDED to win at all.