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Survey USA--North Carolina Obama 36, Clinton 32, Edwards 21

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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:34 PM
Original message
Survey USA--North Carolina Obama 36, Clinton 32, Edwards 21
Interesting poll out of NC. Why is it that Edwards is so far behind in his home state?

Tracking Poll #2 / NC Democratic Presidential Primary -- Obama Doubles Support to Overtake Clinton: In a Democratic Presidential Primary in North Carolina today, 01/15/08, 16 weeks to the vote, Barack Obama edges Hillary Clinton 36% to 32%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 10 weeks ago, Obama is up 17 points, Clinton is down 11 points. Clinton had led 2nd place John Edwards by 18 points, now trails Obama by 4 points, with Edwards falling to 3rd place. Obama leads by 9 among men. The two are tied among women. Among black voters, Obama leads 3:1. Among white voters, Clinton leads Edwards by 6. Clinton runs strong in Charlotte, where she is up 12. Obama has a double-digit advantage in Raleigh, Southern NC and on the Coast.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=e0dae417-eda6-47ec-82ab-1ddf46c4a303
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. I live in Charlotte, NC
Edited on Wed Jan-16-08 04:35 PM by BrentTaylor
A lot of people really like Obama around here. He leads our local news on Politics. Not Edwards.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:39 PM
Response to Original message
2. Statistical toss up then, its anyone of their 2's game
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
3. Edwards does have time to make it up but however you spin it
this is not a good sign for him. Doesn't show much home state loyalty or affection.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. No, it shows we have three very strong candidates n/t
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. no it doesn't
Edwards may be a strong candidate in so far as policy goes, but he has not been strong as far as being competitive with Clinton and Obama in the vast majority of polls. Even granting there are polling inaccuracies, he's lagging behind, and polling that poorly in your home state is not a good thing.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. If you wish to see a negative pattern, you will
You're an Obama person. Naturally you're going to see a positive pattern.

Home court advantage is not great when it comes to politics. Many people don't carry their home states.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:45 PM
Response to Original message
5. Holy crap taht is a big shift
it mirrors what is polling in Alabama and Georgia and obviously SC
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Horse with no Name Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. Because it is a very red state
and he is a very blue Democrat.
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
7. good.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
9. How can anybody take Edwards seriously
If he can't win his home state and he couldn't win the state where he spent the last 3 years in?
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Most people do not carry their own states. Home court advantage is a myth n/t
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. links?
can't just make a sweeping assertion as if it's fact and not post any evidence for it. I beieve you're wrong, but one thing I know is that Dean took VT well after he'd dropped out of the race.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. It's not my job to inform you on basic statistical information
Go forth and study
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. bzzzzt. wrong as you could possibly be.
and you know it. When someone makes a claim here it is up to them to provide evidence. That's the standard at DU- not just pulling stuff out of thin air and then refusing to back it up. poor form indeed.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. No, I don't know it. If someone steps up and says "give proof someone said that", fine
You're walking up to an astrophysicist and saying "prove to me the earth WASN'T created in seven days".

It's not my job to inform you on basics.

End of thread -- have your last Obama word.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #16
27. basics, what crap
damned straight I'll have the last word. You pulled something out of your rear, and got defensive when you were called on it.
It's not called home state advantage for nothing. Why the hell do you think Clinton's way ahead in NY? Obama in Illinois? Damned straight there's a home state advantage and it's widely acknowledged as real.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Welcome to my ignore list. n/t
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. LOL!
Do people actually think anyone gives a damn that some poster puts them on ignore?
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Obama has a Huuuuuuuuge lead in Illinois, when he doesnt have a huge lead anywhere else
Gee Skippy...I wonder why.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:36 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. Maybe because he's mainstream in his state whereas Edwards is an actual progressive in a red state?
Hmmm, could be. ;)

You know, Obama is my second choice but based upon his obnoxious supporters, I'm really reconsidering my choice.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #18
28. Edwards is my second choice
I find many of his supporters obnoxious and sanctimonious to boot but I hope to hell I'd never be dumb enough to be influenced by that.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Ok, so how about you stop dodging my question?
Where is Edwards going to win? What big state will Edwards win?
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. How about you Obama people stop going around DU like a primate pack?
I'm sorry, but this is ludicrous. You all line up against anyone who isn't "on your side".

I have a Hillarian ignore list -- this thread is giving me my Obaman one. Everyone post on here
who wants to be ignored.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. I'm not an Obama supporter
nor am I am Hillary supporter.

You keep dodging my question. Which states will John Edwards win?
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. I don't care how many he'll win -- I'm voting for a President, not a racehorse
Aren't you?
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. You'd better care.
If he can't win a state, the odds he'll win the nom is 0%
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Why should I care? This isn't the stock market
I'm supporting the person I think to be the right person for the job. I don't care about backing
the "winning" person in the primary. Whomever gets the Democratic nomination, I will work for (and
I mean that physically, as if volunteering). Until then, I'm with Edwards because he's the most
progressive.
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Andy823 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #23
33. Problem is
What good is it to win the nomination if you can't win the general? Who cares if we elect the "first" black man, or the "first" woman as the nominee if we can't take back the whitehouse? :eyes:
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red2blue Donating Member (70 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #23
34. correct me if i am wrong but...
Gore couldn't carry Tenn. in 2000
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. You say that he still has a chance to win the nomination
Well, I ask, what states will he win to aid that process? You can't keep finishing a distant 3rd and expect to win the nomination.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Yes, he has a chance. One of the other two could take a big tumble and Edwards could win.
I'm supporting him because he's the lone genuine progressive in the race and I'm a liberal. I'll support him
until he drops out.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. Barring a catastrophic event...
That's an awful big if. Is that what you are pining Edwards hopes of winning the nomination on? A candidate suddently withdrawing? A scandal?

What states will he win?
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #31
35. Why do you think we should only "back" someone we feel can win the primary?
This isn't the Superbowl. We're not handicapping here. I'm not seeing your context.
Are you saying there's some kind of acid test in picking out the one who is going to win
rather than merely backing the candidate we feel best represents our views?
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
19. A good chunk of delegates there...
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-16-08 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
32. NC is only Red in Presidential races
But the State Government is Democrat.
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