The Wall Street Journal
For Democrats, Nevada Is a Throw of the Dice
A Win Would Provide a Boost, but Candidates Must Gamble That Voters Know the Caucus Game
By JUNE KRONHOLZ
January 16, 2008; Page A7
LAS VEGAS -- The voter-registration office here in Clark County says it received 4,025 new-voter registrations last week and 2,240 the week before that. In a presidential race where new voters are trending toward Barack Obama, and in a state where Saturday's Democratic caucus may attract no more than 50,000 people, those new voters could tip the balance... But what could decide the winner here is whether Nevada voters can figure out what a caucus is and then decide to attend.
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When Nevada's Democrats caucused four years ago and just 9,000 voters showed up at 17 caucus sites around the state to endorse John Kerry, the nomination was already sewn up. For this year, under pressure from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid -- of Nevada -- the party made the state one of four early-decision contests. Republicans piggy-backed the date and called their own caucuses. In an affront that Nevadans still complain about, New Hampshire leapfrogged Nevada to vote second and steal the nation's attention. In a further affront, the Republican candidates have largely ignored the state, conceding it and its substantial Mormon population to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. But Mr. Obama's first-place finish in Iowa and Mrs. Clinton's in New Hampshire have added some sizzle to the Democratic race.
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The Las Vegas's 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union, which represents workers on the Las Vegas Strip, is an organizing force here. Among other things, it claims to have accounted for 20% of Clark County's new citizens last year by shepherding them through its citizenship program. In a bow to the union, the Democratic Party last March agreed to set up so-called at-large caucus sites in nine Strip hotels on Saturday to accommodate workers who can't attend caucuses in their neighborhoods.
Under the party formula, the casino caucuses also could elect 10 times the delegates of a neighborhood caucus that draws the same size crowd.(snip)
Nevada's caucuses are patterned after Iowa's, with each candidate's supporters gathering in a different corner of the room. The union's endorsement could make it uncomfortable for members to gather in any other corner than Mr. Obama's... The caucuses' timing during a holiday weekend adds to the unpredictability. Sen. Reid initially predicted a turnout of 100,000 Democrats, or about one of every four in the state. But Nevada has notoriously low turnouts, and thousands of people working elsewhere than the Strip won't get off from work to caucus. Mr. Reid also has promoted the importance of the state's caucus by insisting that Nevada "looks like America" because of its Hispanic population, now 24% of the state.
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