|
Edited on Sat Jan-19-08 05:43 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
(Written in response to a statement that the party isn't "ready")
Win or lose, Barack Obama's candidacy is not a referendum on race. There are some Democratic voters who will vote against him over race, and some Democrats who will vote for him over race. The net effect of race is probably about even. And the great majority of primary voters seem to be voting with unprecedented color-blindness. There's no cause or reason to view the biggest racial good news story in American political history as negative.
Senator Obama is a fantastic politician who happens to be less tested and less experienced than the usual Presidential candidate. That's not a knock on his character. The guy is 46 years old and brand new to the national scene. Even JFK had been a congressman for a decade. Bill Clinton was the longest tenured governor in the whole country.
The question whether he is less experienced than Hillary or Edwards doesn't change the fact that Senator Obama has a non-racial electoral handicap that accounts for at least half of people's relative discomfiture with him in a head-to-head match-up with a woman (as historic an exception as race) who is associated with the only Presidential electoral success most Democrats have ever known. If Hillary is perceived as very experienced then that's the perception, and politics is all about perceptions. (And that perception isn't because she's white, it's because she's one of the three or four most famous and familiar figures in the party.)
Senator Obama is not doing well by the standards of a protest candidacy like Jesse Jackson's. He is simply doing WELL. Very well. Like ten times better than a very good-looking white male who was our VP candidate four years ago. And if Senator Obama wins it won't mean the Democratic party isn't ready for a woman... everyone has their own problems with Hillary that transcend gender.
Obama may yet gain the nomination. And if he does not, it cannot be attributed solely to race. Given the flow of national attitudes, there is no doubt that when Senator Obama is as old and familiar as the usual Presidential candidate he will be a preeminent force in the Democratic party.
The Democratic Party has had a female VP candidate, but has never had a person of color in a ticket at all. If Obama's great success shakes out to force a Clinton/Obama ticket it would be doubly historic, and would all but guarantee an Obama Presidency at some point. (Even if a Clinton/Obama administration was a failure, he would still be viable going forward.)
So it's all good, and it's not all about race.
|