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Would it be wrong to call Senator Clinton the presumptive nominee at this point?

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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:52 PM
Original message
Would it be wrong to call Senator Clinton the presumptive nominee at this point?
In Rasmussen Markets, she now has 65% odds to win the nomination. Barack Obama has just 33$. Intratrade is 66-32 in favor of Senator Clinton.

I think the title "presumptive nominee" needs to start being thrown around. She's ahead 7.9 points on average nationally but she probably has a bit of a bigger lead than that. She's won 3 of the 4 nominating contests thus far. She has a slight financial advantage as well fundraising wise.

What do you think? Time for that title or not?
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maddiejoan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:53 PM
Original message
Too early in the game
I'd not yet call her the presumptive nominee.
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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. Yes.
Edited on Sun Jan-20-08 01:54 PM by ronnykmarshall
It's too early to say that.

If Obama wins in SC (and I think he will), the momentum will once again swing back to him.
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Evergreen Emerald Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. It is wrong. There is a long way to go until the convention, and from
day to day the polls shift depending on which way the wind blows!
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burythehatchet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
3. I prefer Empress
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The Velveteen Ocelot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
4. Yes, it would be wrong.
The fat lady hasn't finished her aria yet; she's still just warming up. A whole lot can still change, and the pundits and the pollsters turn out to be wrong more often than they're right.

Fasten your seat belts; it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
5. She's always been the presumptive nominee
That's why Obama's numbers are a serious threat. In fact, when he had an honest media, he won. It wasn't until the media started with this picking on Hillary garbage that he started losing.
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shayes51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
6. I wish we could, but
I think that kind of talk actually hurts her campaign.
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
7. just say no to corporate war mongering tools... go kucinich!!! n/t
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
8. YES! We've just started the process! nt
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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. The process of what? nt
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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. Isn't Intratrade a corporation that deals in corporate stock?
I mean... uh....
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cobalt1999 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
10. We'll all know after Super Tuesday.
Obama will take South Carolina, but how much momentum does that give him going into Super Tuesday? If it's enough to split with Hillary, then it will make the states that stayed back in the primary calendar look pretty smart.
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kstewart33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:00 PM
Response to Original message
11. Way too early, but things seem headed in that direction. nt
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:00 PM
Response to Original message
12. 2/3 odds are not "presumptive," though she is the frontrunner.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
14. At this point in the campaign...
...the American people are getting to know the candidates. Everyone
is formulating opinions, based on what is going on in the campaign.

I think it is very clear---that distinctive, almost opposite ways of
governing are being brought forth by both Clinton and Obama. Their
personalities are very different, their ideas are different and their
level of experience is different. They represent different generations.

With that said, I think we are learning a great deal about each candidate,
as they campaign. How they campaign is under a microscope as well as the
way their surrogates, spouses and others act as well.

America is at a crossroads and it appears that the Democratic party is as well.
These two candidates represent completely different directions.

I think all of us are so traumatized by BushCo. What a nightmare it has been
for all of us. It has been so horrendous, and now we have a chance to end
it all and start a new direction. Do we go with the more experienced, establishment
candidate, or do we go with a candidate who represents a new vision and big change?
Both candidates have very strong positives and you can make a case for their
negatives. It's going to come down to what America--and the Dems want--at this
point in history. A time when we are all so shattered at what has happened during
the last 8 years.

I'm confident that America will make the right decision, in the end.

We just have to let this play out, and we have a long, long way to go.
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
15. It is wrong. Many more innings to go. Let all Dems have a voice in the selection. /nt
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okasha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:08 PM
Response to Original message
16. Too early.
Maybe after Super Tuesday, if things go very well for her.
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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:14 PM
Response to Original message
17. Interesting thoughts all
I'm not quite ready to call her that yet either. I want to see the results of S.C. first. If she loses by 8 points or more, then things tilt back to post Iowa pre New Hampshire. This next week will be critical as some of the pundits said last night on the election coverage. We have a debate. We have MLK day. And the battle will likely be joined between President Clinton (42) and Senator Obama.
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
18. You think it even know it, but politically it is best not to say it
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Crunchy Frog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
19. Yes. n/t
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Fresh_Start Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:25 PM
Response to Original message
20. yes, not to mention counterproductive to whoever you support NT
NT
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
21. Intrade has Obama's odds to win NH at 92 percent. How did that turn out?
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Fabio Donating Member (929 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
22. Front runner, yes
presumptive nominee, no.

Without predicting anyone's demise, I still dont know how this would all shake out in a head to head obama versus clinton matchup.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
23. Yes
It is too early.
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
24. Would it be wrong to call McCain the next president yet?
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