Analysis of Virginia: A Critical Battleground

As any student of political history knows, it has been a long time since Virginia has voted for a Democrat for president. In fact it has been since 1964. The state's mixture of fiscal, social, and military conservatives has made it a powerful state for Republicans for the past forty years. However, times are changing.

Since 2001, the Democrats have won most of the major statewide races. These were the governor's race in 2001 when Mark Warner won by roughly 6%, the governor's race in 2005 when Tim Kaine, a relatively liberal candidate, won by even more than Warner, and the 2006 Virginia Senate race in which Jim Webb unseated previously popular incumbent George Allen. Mark Warner's win, despite seemingly heralding this shift, actually is not a particularly good illustration of it.

Warner's 2001 victory was without winning the rapidly growing suburban counties in Northern Virginia of Prince William and Loudon. Instead, Warner won southwestern and south central rural counties en masse including Lee and Buckingham counties. He marginally carried important suburban counties including Henrico county, north of Richmond, and rather decisively carried Fairfax county outside of Washington D.C. by 10%. Warner focused heavily on the rural areas during the campaign, touting his moderate stance on gun control and even advertising during NASCAR events.

Tim Kaine's victory had a decidedly different character to it. Kaine did not hide his opposition to the death penalty, which is widely supported in Virginia. This was potentially problematic for rural social conservative voters, who by and large strongly favor the death penalty. Indeed, Kaine did not win the rural areas as these shifted heavily towards Republican Jerry Kilgore. However, Kaine more than offset these losses with decisive wins in the urban and suburban areas of Virginia. Kaine won Fairfax county, the largest in the state, by 20%, a massive improvement on Warner's victory in 2001. Furthermore, he also won Loudon and Prince William, two of the most rapidly growing counties in the country, by slim margins. These had not voted for a Democrat for any office in a competitive race in years. He also expanded Warner's margin in Henrico county, and reduced the Republican margin in the southern Richmond suburbs of Chesterfield county.

Kaine also improved the Democratic showings in southeastern Virginia with wins in previously heavily Republican Virginia Beach and Chesapeak City. Even while he got crushed in the rural portions of the state, the gains he made in these suburban areas more than offset his losses elsewhere as he expanded on Warner's victory margin, albeit slightly.

Webb's narrow upset over George Allen once again confirmed these trends of the populous parts of Virginia shifting rapidly to the Democrats while the rural areas continue to drift more Republican. Webb won Fairfax by 19 points and carried Loudon and Prince William once again, though he did a full 5.5% worse statewide than Kaine did. This indicates that even with a stronger overall Republican vote statewide, these counties are trending Democratic. Webb won very little in the southwestern portions of Virginia and got creamed in the Shenandoah Valley. Allen defeated Webb in Henrico county narrowly and crushed him in Chesterfield by 18 percent. However, Webb's big wins up north, particularly in Arlington and Alexandria gave him a 60% to 40% win in the decisive region of Northern Virginia, cancelling out very weak showings in rural Virginia.

On the presidential level, the seemingly large shift of northern Virginia in the direction of the Democrats has yet to be seen. However, in 2004, John Kerry was the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson to win critical Fairfax County and Virginia proved to be his best showing in the south outside of the atypical Florida. Additionally, Bush's margins in Prince William and Loudon counties dropped between 2000 and 2004 by mid single digits.

One thing that appears to be driving Virginia's shift to the left is the abundance of postgraduates in the state. 24% of Virginia voters in 2006 were postgraduates versus 18% nationwide. This percentage is also far higher than all other southern states. These voters are concentrated in the north and vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Jim Webb won 57% of the vote from this growing group. This correlates nicely with the other trend which is that income earners over $100,000 in income are becoming increasingly Democratic in the state. Webb lost voters with less than $100,000 in income by 2 points and won those with over $100,000 by 6 points.

At the margins a growing Asian and Latino vote is making an impact. The two groups together make up about 10% of Virginia's population and yet only 5% of the electorate in 2006. However, they vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats with nearly 70% voting for Webb, providing more than his margin of victory. While whites are still around 75%(+ or - 3% from election 2004 to 2006) of Virginia's total electorate, they are only 70% of the total population. If voter turnout among non-whites, particularly Latinos and Asian-Americans rises, Republicans will have a hard time winning the state.

Secular voters are very critical to this new Democratic coalition in Virginia. 10% in 2006 professed no religious affiliation versus 7% in the South as a whole. While that does not sound significant, they voted 73% for Jim Webb. With Republicans in 2004 and 2006 carrying nearly 60% of the Protestant vote, this group is key to offsetting Republican strength among religious voters. Webb additionally reduced the Republican margin among Catholics from over 20% to just 2% while the Republican share among Protestants remained the same from 2004 to 2006. This trend has to be confirmed by this year's election as it may have been somewhat of an aberration.

There are a great many forces at work in Virginia that make it a competitive battleground state this year. With 13 electoral votes at stake, it is a critical state for both parties. While the Senate race between Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore(R) is pretty much a foregone conclusion, the presidential race is not.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html

This was posted from my blog at http://bqreport.blogspot.com/

Recent SurveyUSA polls indicate either Hillary or Obama stand a decent chance here.

critical for this election.