Article: Look past the headlines to see real primary picture

Headlines declared Hillary Clinton’s result in the New Hampshire primary a “stunning victory.” John McCain enjoyed a “very personal victory,” according to CNN. And who won the Iowa caucuses? A headline from the Jan. 4 New York Times answered definitively, “Obama takes Iowa in a big turnout; Huckabee victor.” These framings are typical — virtually all media coverage of the primaries and caucuses focuses on winners (or “victors”). What exactly did these candidates win? To be precise, in Iowa Barack Obama won 16 out of 45 delegates and Mike Huckabee won 17 out of 40 delegates.

Obama “rolled to victory,” Adam Nagourney assured his New York Times readers; yet the actual result was 16 delegates to Obama, 15 to Clinton and 14 to John Edwards (who slightly edged Clinton in votes). In New Hampshire, Clinton and Obama tied in the result that matters, as each won nine delegates (Edwards won four). Meanwhile, McCain won seven delegates, to four for Mitt Romney and one for Huckabee.

Because there is no office at stake in any given state primary (or caucus), and the real prize for which these candidates are tussling is a national nomination to run for president, a fair read on the Democratic results so far is: one virtual three-way tie followed by a two-way tie. Meanwhile, five GOP candidates have already won some delegates, and the vast majority of the nearly 2,400 delegates are still to be chosen.