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PP Poll: SC - Obama 44 - Hillary 28 - JE - 15 - Undecided - 12 - MOE 4.1

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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:04 PM
Original message
PP Poll: SC - Obama 44 - Hillary 28 - JE - 15 - Undecided - 12 - MOE 4.1
Edited on Tue Jan-22-08 06:10 PM by wlucinda
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_012208.pdf


NOTE: This was taken on the day of the debate. Any post-debate shifting will not be shown here. But it is new data, so I posted it. :)
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. Woo Hoo! Thanks for the info! n/t
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #1
20. You're welcome.
Looks like it's going to be a pretty great day for Obama. I think it will be a bit closer than anticipated though.
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
2. taken before the debate, MLK III's letter, and CWA endorsement
lets see if that changed anything for Edwards
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Edwards is at ONE percent with black voters. 20% is the best he can realistically do in SC now
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I also expect a change...just posting what was there. :)
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #2
24. I hope he finishes second.
I don't think he'll win the nomination but it would be nice to see Hillary get really trounced again.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:06 PM
Response to Original message
3. Gets 70% of the black vote and only 17% of the white vote
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Playing the race card is a two way street as Obama is learning
It worked in South Carolina but may come back to haunt him in a very big way on Super Tuesday.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. HA!
Neither campaign played the race card.
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #6
41. I'm in SC...I am a white...How did Obama 'play the race card' here????
Just wondering how you would know??
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. That is a concern. But I doubt it will hold throughout the South and Midwest. n/t
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Doubt or "hope"? He is at 16%, tied with Edwards with whites in Florida
While dominating with blacks.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. In non-southern states he will do a lot better with whites
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
26. He is tied with Edwards among whites in the latest CNN poll
It is his huge lead among blacks that is giving him high national poll numbers. It obscures the racial disparity in his support.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. But his numbers havent dropped. Obama was at 17 percent in October, and now hes at 25.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:03 PM
Response to Reply #30
35. October is when Hill began to decline. Edwards is up just as much with whites during that time
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guerrillafiter Donating Member (15 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
8. My impression is that Obama wins SC and Hillary wins Super Tuesday
When I say "wins" super tuesday I mean winning the most delegates that day.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. Welcome to DU! I think SC may be closer than anticipated
and will depend a lot on getting the vote out.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. I Suspect Obama Wins Most Of The Southern States That Vote That Day
~
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Probably...she'll take Arkansas.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Good Point
I doubt she loses Arkansas...
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #13
29. ROFLOL!
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. If Obama Is Winning Among African Americans 5-1
It's extremely difficult for HRC to win in states whose Democratic parties are predominately African American... It's just math...
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. If it comes down to race it is just math.
Edited on Tue Jan-22-08 07:11 PM by William769
And I'll stand by ROFLOL.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
14. Obama's leading Hillary in women, 45% to 29%
Interesting.
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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
15. Think I'll wait for the gameday polls.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. It's the smart move. The last two polls I've seen had a larger sample of black voters, so
the race may be tighter than we think, depending on GOTV efforts.
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
16. i heard that Obama will spend much of his time in SC in mostly White areas for the next four days
to pick up more support also we don't know yet the effect of that debate had on voters.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. That is a very smart strategy. n/t
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. That would be a smart thing for Obama to do.
I'm curious to see how the post-debate polling looks.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:27 PM
Response to Reply #16
28. He doesn't want the story out of SC to be him a distant third with whites but at 70% with blacks
Shades of Jesse Jackson with that. It is too little, too late, though. He may improve a point or two with that swing but the bottom line is the Clinton campaign will successfully be able to spin and minimize his win as a race based victory that says nothing about Super Tuesday.
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #16
43. Obama has no shortage of white voters here in SC...and that is a fact! nt
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goodgd_yall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
21. Oops!
Edited on Tue Jan-22-08 06:20 PM by goodgd_yall
I asked a question that was answered in the OP.

How many "independents" are there in S.C., I wonder?

I'm not surprised Obama is ahead there considering the demographics and his appeal to the self-described Christians.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. This poll had 12% undecided...and about 4% more black voters polled
Edited on Tue Jan-22-08 06:21 PM by wlucinda
So there is shifting capability. But Obama still has a nice lead.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. I'm not sure about estimated undecides. And the polling has been all over the map
Obama leads in all the recent ones...but the percentages tighten up a lot in other polls. SC is a nail biter. :)
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krabigirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:55 PM
Response to Original message
31. Sadly, Obama, not Edwards will win. And Hillary will win Super Tuesday, by far..
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #31
40. I support Hillary - but I would love to see JE do well in the states ahead.
Even if he isn't the nom...a lot of JE's agenda needs to be incorporated into the platform.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
32. Where's Curley and Shemp?
Nyuk nyuk nyuk!

:P
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:10 PM
Response to Reply #32
39. LOL
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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 06:58 PM
Response to Original message
34. Uh, not so fast.......
Get ur calculator out or take off your shoes and use your toes and do some figuring.....

http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/96vr?countykey=ALL...

1,617,142 white
629,100 non-white

Now use those percentages in the poll and have fun.

Blacks: Obama 70%, Hillary 15%, Edwards 1%, Kucinich 1%
Whites: Hillary 43%, Edwards 30%, Obama 17%, Kucinich 1%

Women: Obama 45%, Hillary 29%, Edwards 12%, Kucinich 1%
Men: Obama 43%, Hillary 27%, Edwards 18%, Kucinich 2%


If they all voted here is what I came up with: Obama 735,914 Hillary 761,521

Check me out, fer sure. If I am correct then voter turnout is what will pick the winner.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. Those numbers are everybody, not just dems, right?
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #37
42. *snort*
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #34
38. Yeah. I went digging through previous SC voter data last night
which is why I said elsewhere in the thread that it could easily be different outcome than the polls are showing. IMO, Get Out The Vote efforts, and the fallout from the debate will both be factors.
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