Clintons writing off the South is a very risky decision

If they abandoned SC to Obama and Edwards,,,,there is a great potential for it to cascade across the south on Super Tuesday with Obama and Edwards getting the spoils. That does free them up to Campaign in the West or outside her Northeast base in places like Missouri.

The problem is that the Clintons risk making it into a three person race again and that virtually assure we will go to a second ballot in Denver.

So their strategy would seem to be grab fewer states but more of those states... grab as many super delegates as they can and roll into the convention with a plurality.

The problem I see with that is in the midwest. You Give Edwards viability again...he has strong Blue collar appeal in states like Ohio. He gets the "Budweisers drinkers" and Obama gets strong AA support and "Chablis drinkers" (as the pundits called them last weekend) What does that leave the Clintons with in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania?

SHe might play well out west. Thet Polling seems solid...but to me Nevada is like FLorida.... It really is not the West. California is a mixed bag. Obama is closing... but I would gladly settle for a three way split out there. I am just not sure....the Clintons can.

I don't think having Bill and Chelsea campaign for you in SC is writing off the south. Besides HC will be there pressing as hard as ever.

Yours is one of those statements that sounds like an MSM distorting headline.

Because her support in the south has always been shallow.... letting Edwards off the mat gives white southerners a viable alternative to Obama.

South Carolinais a Bellweather.

the south. If the primary were held today, she would win Alabama, IMO - Georgia, too. Democrats down here are very "bluedog" and those DINOs almost always go for the establishment candidate - and that is Clinton. If anyone is counting on Clinton losing in the south, I think they are going to be disappointed - that's just my take...

She is not writing off the south, just putting her money where she can garner the most votes. That's called "smart"!
She will beat Obama with the Hispanic vote, the over 40 vote, and the women's vote.

She used to lead here in Georgia. That's not the case anymore.

I have always has a sense that outside Atlanta... Hillary's support is quite shallow amnog Dems.

Targeted races, targeted states, just one or two more than Bush won in 2000.

Minimalist and inherently defeatist, it is.

It also writes off all Democrats downballot from her in the South (and elsewhere). They can't be liking their chances as much with her at the top of the ballot. Negative coattails.

She revealed this strategy first in Nevada, where she spent most all of her time campaigning in Clark County (Las Vegas) and on election night, sure enough, she carried that county and lost almost all the rest of the ones throughout the remaining areas of the state.

This is a path to the nomination, but not the White House. Gore and Kerry in 2004 are proof of this failed strategy. Yet we seem doomed to repeat it in 2008.

:banghead:

I just thoughught it through and wrote it myself.

you pulled it out of your ass

looking for Super Tuesday votes.

Florida does not count. They have no presence in VA. I live in VA and I have not seen a Hillary Bumpersticker yet.

Tied in a state where she lived for 20 years is not a good sign.

this is really the 1st closed vote.............only republicans and Democrats can vote........this means alot without the Indies......it'll show the strength of all 3 canidates...........

just curious...

AP) Florida's presidential primaries could almost be decided by the time most polling places open next week.

That's because early voting started Jan. 14 and absentee ballots started hitting the mail last month. Half a million people or more may have voted before primary day actually gets here Jan. 29 - a candidate who reaches those early birds could build a formidable lead.

That has some Republican candidates trying different strategies to reach voters who aren't waiting to cast their ballots (the Democrats aren't campaigning here because it moved up its primary in violation of both parties' rules). There are Web sites, rallies and mailers pushing early voting.

"There's no playbook on this because it hasn't been done in Florida," said David Johnson, a GOP strategist and former executive director of the Republican Party of Florida. "The campaigns are trying to learn as they go along what that playbook might be."

More than a third of the votes cast in Florida in the 2004 general election were cast early or by mail, taking advantage of a 2000 rule change allowing absentee ballot requests without having to prove that voting in person would be a hardship. As of mid-January, more than 176,000 Democrats and more than 225,000 Republicans had requested absentee ballots.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/21/politics/main3734796.shtml

if no one has campgned there and no delegate are awarded. The media will completely discount whatever resul there is

:D

I think someone need a geography lesson!

to Florida. Florida really should not be considered the south.

You may be on to something.

~

It's no wonder they wouldn't understand the idea of being competitive everywhere. I suspect they've always conceded the South, which is why the party atrophied during the Clinton years, I would speculate.

Polls are all over the place. By Saturday, depending on the turnout, we may have another story altogether in SC.

They get this:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Since you were categorizing voters by what they drink, I thought you were saying that Edwards gets Bud drinkers and Obama gets Chablis drinkers and people who have quit drinking (AA). For a minute I was like

:wtf:

Anyway, good analysis.