Some really wild figuring based on state of SC stats and using an average of most polling.....

suston96

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Sat Jan-26-08 05:32 PM
Original message

Some really wild figuring based on state of SC stats and using an average of most polling.....

Edited on Sat Jan-26-08 05:44 PM by suston96

registered non whites 629000
X 80% non-white turnout 503200
x 62% non-white vote Obama 311984
add 20% white vote Obama 127400

Total Obama 439384

white voters less Repubs
who voted Repub Primary 1274000
x 50% turnout 637000
less x20% to Obama 127400

80% split Clinton Edwards 509600
plus 38% non-white vote 191216

Total split Clinton Edwards 700816

NotE Total turnout: 1140200

Neither Clinton nor Edwards can beat Obama, depending how they share that 700,816 votes.

Turnout is everything. Missing variable: women - non-white and white and where they will go.

I am editing and adding percentages. Please compare with other threads.

Obama 38% Clinton/Edwards split 62%

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GodlessBiker

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Sat Jan-26-08 05:34 PM
Response to Original message

1. You forgot to carry the one.

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hayu_lol

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Sat Jan-26-08 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. This is as good a guess as any I've seen...

other variables are including machines that don't work at all, that only work occasionally, and those that are fixed by parties unknown.

Otherwise, may be just the result you estimate.

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