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Okay ... I am putting my HRC partisanship away for the time being. Let's talk strategy from an objective point of view. (And Obama supporters should take comfort in knowing, if they already don't, that my tongue will be licking envelopes for Barack if he wins. There has never been any doubt of my support in my mind.)
Obama has campaigned in areas that have been in a state of flux for Democrats. Nevada especially has undergone tremendous changes in just the last decade. New Hampshire, similar. And South Carolina's Democrats have only been newly-energized -- in large part thanks to Obama's efforts.
But the Clinton strongholds have weathered through 15 years of criticism, rout, and loss. They are not going to be easy coconuts for Obama to crack to reach the milk. He is going to have to present an agenda that is clearly better than HRC. As yet, he has been considerably less precise in laying out his agenda than Hillary, John, or even most of the Republicans. The hortatory approach has been powerful, but these are different kinds of voters.
Most of the big, delegate-rich states are still clearly in Clinton's camp. Barack has nine days to make his case and convince a large chunk of the Hillary supporters to vote for him. Instead of holding their noses, long-time Clintonians will have to grit their teeth. It as a fundamentally different experience to trade long-time loyalty to excellence for a risky choice that could have a far better payoff -- or end in grief.
And Obama's surrogates will not be able to rely on "Hillary is a liar" and similar tropes we have seen here on DU. In newly-Democratic areas, that will work fine (provided it's not used as a all-purpose cudgel). In places that have supported Hillary for years, it will result in an instant backlash. By the same token, if Hillary sticks her foot in her mouth again (ditto for Bill), the damage will be much longer-lasting among the younger voters who have never been laughed at by the Republicans at work. Hillary has a little more leeway to criticize Obama, but she risks alienating nearly all of the newer voters. I strongly suspect that there will be two or three smallish skirmishes in the next five days, but angelic behavior thereafter. The probability of who-starts-what runs about 50/50, though I am confident that Team O will blame Hillary and Team C will blame Obama.
Speaking of Bill, I don't think he will be nearly as critical to Super Tuesday. The long-term Clinton strongholds are now focused on a NEW Clinton. They assume that Bill will be at her side, but the cynical "co-president" accusation is not flying among voters who remember the 1990s. As I am one of those voters, I can tell you that, at least in my area, we assume Hillary will assign Bill as an ambassador sans portfolio to keep him busy and out of the way. We also assume Hillary is considerably more liberal than Bill was. That topic, though, can be argued over in another thread.
Nationally and party-wide, both approaches are badly needed, but different areas hunger and thirst for different kinds of agendas. And that will present Obama his biggest strategic difficulty. He has to be able to win over those groups who have been supportive of the Clintons through thick and thin.
Obama supporters make the case that South Carolina saw an enormous turnout of previously disaffected voters who wanted to vote for BHO. But this has been the overall trend so far. We've seen it in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. How much of this turnout is Obama's OR Hillary's is anyone's guess. Then, too, John Edwards is looking better with each passing day.
So Hillary is going to solidify her long-time support -- to "Obama-proof" her partisans. She will also be seeking to convince the new, uncommitted voters. And a few Obama supporters will probably switch over as well, but that trend has been with BHO (and JRE).
What would I do if I was Barack Obama? I'd spend the next 9 days talking about policy and weaving that, and the philosophy of hope, into an unbroken cable. I would also make it a point to not complain about Hillary whatsoever, since the biggest mistake his camp has made has been to portray Hillary as a female version of Zod, Xenu, and Satan, combined in the person of a middle-aged woman. An evil superhero, if you will. It makes him look like a tender lamb among wolves.
Policy talk and an air of invulnerability will get him much further from now on.
That is how I am seeing it. Sure, I could be wrong. So, what are you seeing from your vantage point? Statistically, as of right now, Hillary has the advantage. Because of yesterday's results in SC, that number could change dramatically in the next 72 hours. And it's 216 hours and 15 minutes until the polls start to open on Super Tuesday.
Nine days. The life of a fruitfly is an eternity in politics.
--p!
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