Serious question about the mechanics of Super Tuesday...

Sir Jeffrey

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Sun Jan-27-08 06:44 PM
Original message

Serious question about the mechanics of Super Tuesday...

no candidate slamming please.

What kind of ground game do Clinton and Obama have in the Super Tuesday states? I know the polls will be in flux for a few days, but I am trying to get a sense of what to expect vis a vis turnout. Are we looking at an even matchup in most of the states, or does the Clinton machine have a significant advantage here?

Thanks.

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tekisui

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Sun Jan-27-08 06:49 PM
Response to Original message

1. Clinton has had the lead in 15 of the 22 states for awhile.

Things have tightened considerably. Obama has strong leads in 7 or so states. They will both be campaigning as much as they can and expect a lot of money spent on big ad buys. Some National Ads, etc.

It will be an exciting night, but I expect things to be about as close as they are now on the morning of Feb.6.

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Sir Jeffrey

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Sun Jan-27-08 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. I can't wait to see if SC has any carry-over effect...

or if it will be like Iowa. Obama seems to have momentum right now, but this stuff changes so much it is hard to keep up with.

I'm like you though. I really don't see us being any closer to finding out who will actually be the nominee on Feb 6th. I'm expecting them to finish 1-2 with little margin between them in most of the states. And with assigning delegates proportionally, this really looks like it could come down to Super Delegates. At that point, it would appear that we're back to the smoke-filled rooms and the party bosses picking the candidate instead of us...which would suck.

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sfam

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Sun Jan-27-08 06:56 PM
Response to Original message

2. Clintons have the advantage

They have worked the state party officials for lots longer than Obama has. This is the value of early money and name recognition. Nevada was a good example of this. Expect similar party structures in most of the Super Tuesday states.

Obama can win, but my guess is the "get out the vote" operation will be in Clinton's favor. One thing perhaps not covered enough is the weird state of the independents in California. The Republicans have blocked them from the primaries while the Dems have allowed them in. This clearly favors Obama, and might be able to make up for some of the Hispanic and state structure advantage Hillary has.

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