TEAM EDWARDS! The JRE Tsunami Tuesday Strategy Thread

First off, please consider this an open thread to suggest your strategy ideas here for the Feb. 5th primaries. The more ideas floated, the better.


Now, a bit lengthy but just wanted to lay out in some detail a few conclusions we came up with on pivotal campaign strategies: a few of us were hashing out ideas for the best strategies for JRE to pursue for the Feb. 5th primaries and caucuses. We were discussing 3 major questions: Best demographic groups to whom to gear JRE's message, issues to focus on, and above all, which states to most aggressively campaign in. It bears repeating that for Tsunami Tuesday and the later states, the key is attracting core Democratic voters as detailed below-- if JRE can increase his appeal among the Democratic rank and file, that will provide a major boost for the states after Feb. 5th.

As always, keep those donations rolling in, and remember, due to public financing and matching funds, every dollar you donate to JRE's campaign is doubled: https://www.johnedwards.com/action/contribute/form

#1 In terms of demographics, as written prior to South Carolina, seems like Edwards most hits pay dirt when he focuses on the groups listed below. Again, the heart of the strategy is for JRE to become the most attractive candidate to those classic yellow-dog Democrats and rank-and-file Democrats in general:
a. Seniors citizens/retirees (AARP or similar office/convention appearances can be great media attention-getters!)
b. Women
c. Latinos
d. Working-class people especially the "urban backbone Democrats" who keep cities running
e. Union members
I wrote on this in a prior post for SC, same holds true prior to Tsunami Tuesday: http://tinyurl.com/26hpfa

#2 As far as issues, we all agreed tonight that the theme was "bread and butter, hold the fancy additions":
a. Protecting Medicare and expanding health insurance access
b. Social Security
c. Medicaid
d. The economy and protecting assistance and job training/placement programs for the poor
e. Women's reproductive rights
f. Education (for example, finding a more sensible replacement for No Child Left Behind, which has been a disaster in practice).
g. A smooth and sensible exit from the War in Iraq.
These issues overlap very well with JRE's ideal demographic groups-- Latinos for example, rate each of these very highly on their list of important concerns. Again, this is all about attracting rank-and-file Democrats, and JRE can position himself as a chief advocate on each of these issues. The more he can do this, the more that JRE will
While things like campaign-finance reform and lobbyist money have appeal in the Blogosphere, out in Middle America it's the basics that attract votes especially from these core demographics, and the 6 issues above are really the heart of a good campaign.

#3 Which states to focus on? This was the toughest area to reach a consensus on since there are good arguments for many possible strategies, and allocating resources during such an intense week has so many dimensions to it.
To help overcome the logistical challenge of which states to campaign in most, definitely regional campaign ads hitting particular time zones for example, and as always focusing in on the demographic groups discussed above, can help to spread JRE's populist and progressive message in several states at once-- many TV networks and radio stations are poised along state lines in e.g. the Midwest and Southwest, and these "big regional" outlets aren't too expensive to advertise in compared to full national ads, making them ideal tools for targeted messages.

Also, Spanish-language ads and ads in Latino media in general are critical in the Southwest and in some other states such as Georgia, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, possibly even Alaska, all of which have rapidly growing and politically important Latino populations. So anyone with Spanish-language skills who can help with ads, canvassing and campaigning, this is a great time to jump in!

Again, this is a battle for delegates rather than states (since we use a proportional allocation system), which is why it's critical for JRE to really hit all the Tsunami Tuesday states and not focus in on just a few. Also remember, there are some primaries but also some caucuses. As a reminder, here's the 2008 primary calendar:
http://tinyurl.com/38roz3 and http://tinyurl.com/2s3gpj

Which states should JRE focus on? Well, for logistical reasons among others, we more or less settled on these:

1. The Midwest really is a "linchpin region" and considering JRE's strong performance in Iowa, his progressive message and populist campaign have special appeal here. Possibly the best Midwestern states to focus on: Missouri (a nice populist heartland state with a high population of the "yellow-dog Democrats" that should be JRE's main demographic focus), Kansas (similar reasons, and also JRE can just swing into Kansas same day as Missouri), and Oklahoma (lots of yellow-dog blue-collar Democrats). Minnesota and North Dakota are caucuses and this is one reason why we didn't quite put them up there with the Missouri/Kansas/Oklahoma triad, but they also have a "heartland populist" feel to them with a strong yellow-dog Democrat presence to boot, much like Iowa, and should still get visits (also a same-day "interstate barnstormer" opportunity here) and a lot of attention from JRE and our surrogates. Really, the Midwest in general might be JRE's "power base" for the Tsunami Tuesday primaries.

2. The Southwest: Another competitive and important region where appeals to the demographic groups above, especially Latinos (who are still mostly undecided), can pay massive dividends. Outside of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado might have the most affinity for the JRE populist, progressive message. AZ is a primary, CO a caucus, but both have lots of delegates and a sizable working-class Latino population in which JRE, thus far, has been demonstrating quite a bit of appeal. New Mexico is a smaller delegate prize and a caucus, but logistically it's a place JRE could easily visit on a swing from Arizona, and ads between the two states can overlap without too much extra cost. We couldn't decide on Utah, but apparently there is a decent base of support for JRE within Salt Lake City which is the Democratic heartland of the state, so an appearance at an AARP meeting and a nice rally perhaps with a city labor union group, with targeted ads to these groups, can at least help JRE to gain some delegates. Obviously, Spanish-language and Latino-focused regional ads, focusing on the issues above, are critical.
California of course is an entity unto itself, but we've noticed more and more people especially among the senior citizen, labor and especially Latino communities gravitating toward Edwards as a "consensus choice," and of course JRE has the Fresno Bee endorsement among others. We all agreed that California shouldn't dominate over other Southwestern states for JRE's campaign, but that instead, JRE should focus ads and campaigning on particular precincts rich in the Democratic demographics listed above, and just follow an efficient, precinct-by-precinct strategy.

3. The Southeast: A natural "base" for JRE as well, though for fortuitous reasons, not quite as big on Tsunami Tuesday as the Midwest and Southwest (though important in later primaries, of course). We recommended singling out Georgia and Tennessee for particular attention and, once again, hammering home messages appealing to the groups mentioned above, focusing intensely on the Medicare/Social Security/Medicaid issues that are so important to them. Naturally, inexpensive regional ads on TV and radio would also reach Arkansas and Alabama, and since this region has the fastest-growing Latino population in the country, Spanish-language ads are a critical component of the campaigning.

Elsewhere? There should definitely be a "Northeast Day" in there as far as on-the-ground campaigning, and the Northeast is definitely yellow-dog Democrat country though not really JRE's power base. Targeted appearances with Labor Unions and senior citizens' groups and analogous targeted ads are great, we just thought that JRE would get the most out of doing more physical campaigning in the other regions. As far as where to appear-- in our humble opinion, not much sense spending a lot of time in New York, though southern New Jersey and Delaware (all those old factory and industrial towns, lots of senior citizens in these places) might be better picks. In New England, Connecticut and RI might be better places to focus than on Massachusetts itself, though naturally ads there can cover the whole region. Idaho is a caucus state but worth a stop in the southern portion of the state along with Colorado.

An "Alaska campaign stop" was an interesting possibility that got mentioned, since an "Edwards surprise" in Alaska might get a good deal of press, and there's a very large, blue-collar working-class base in the state, plus a rapidly-growing Latino population. Alaska is a caucus though with not many delegates at stake, and we questioned whether flying all the way out there from the heartland, with the attendant jet lag, made sense. Maybe just lots of focused ads-- this was a real toss-up in our view, but at least as far as physical campaigning, makes more sense to focus on the heartland and regions of Edwards populist appeal.

It gets interesting after Feb. 5th. For the Saturday Feb. 9th states, Louisiana has a primary and JRE could net delegates in quite a few of the parishes, so that'll be a critical state to target those demographic groups as above-- Louisiana really could be a nice delegate prize for Edwards, whether or not he wins the state. Also, Edwards has big appeal in Washington state and there's a realistic chance that he could even win that caucus. Nebraska, less sure about.

Again, it's all about scooping as many delegates in competitive precincts, as feasible, and doing it with the backing in particular of core Democrats. JRE is in this thing through the convention, and he has to be-- we're depending on Edwards to be the standard-bearer of progressive causes and the true progressive voice at the convention, the one who serves as the critical decider no matter where he is in the standings, and so we have to do everything we can to supply him with the delegates to have that power. Let's go Team Edwards, as always let's keep our eyes on the prize and our feet on the ground!

btw - I think the plan looks like a good strategy. I saw him live (in DC, a while ago) and he's so very electric.

Someone mentioned at some point that this was being done at least in good fun as a response to you-know-who's Youtube video. Would be interested to hear suggestions on just who it should be! :headbang:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGSVxPQjY8g

Nice.