47 % of all votes in California will be cast by mail and Clinton still leads Obama by 6 %

During a conference call with state reporters, the campaign noted the importance of early voting by mail. Fabian Nunez, speaker of the California Assembly, said more votes will be cast by mail in California than were cast in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina combined. “In some cases, enough votes are gonna be banked to win the contest,” Nunez said.

The most recent figures obtained from the California Association of County Election Officials (CACEO) show that 1,132,877 mail-in ballots have been returned, out of the more than 5 million that were requested. But CACEO president Steven Weir estimates that the actual number of returned ballots is already over 2 million. Weir also predicts that 47% of all votes will be cast by mail.

In 2004, just under 3 million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, while 2.1 million votes were cast in the uncontested Republican primary. For that primary, as with this one, there were also ballot initiatives driving some of the turnout. Weir says some of the ballots that have been returned actually indicate no choice for president. “ came out to vote for the props,” he said. “But this is being driven by the top of the tickets.”

Capitalizing on these early voters was clearly a strategy of the Clinton campaign. “The more votes we can lock in now while she’s still leading with double digits, is what some would all an insurance policy,” said Luis Vizcaino, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign here.

Vizcaino said state voters are fiercely independent, and wouldn’t be swayed in significant numbers by Obama’s significant win in South Carolina. Participants in the conference call today were also asked several times about the endorsement from Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said that she spoke with Kennedy last night, and that he denied rumors that his endorsement was a reaction to former President Clinton’s recent comments about race. “He said that … Obama really has this strong sense of inspiration and hope, and this has always been part of the Kennedy legacy,” Feinstein said. “I take his statement at face value.”

Feinstein later forcefully rejected the idea that Bill Clinton’s role would hurt his wife. “Bill Clinton is not running for the presidency. Hillary Clinton is running for the presidency. And there should be no spin that confuses the two,” Feinstein said. “Hillary speaks for herself, and hers is the voice that should be listened to.”

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/29/61984...

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Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama's 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race today after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night's interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards' supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton's popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104044/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

You should be.

The Latino vote will solidify it for Hillary.

Survey USA Clinton 49% ....38 for the other guy
Politico/CNN 49% 32 ""
USA Today/Gallop 47% 35 ""
Field 39% 29 ""
PPIC 43% 28 ""

Ha! We've already got you!

Since some 34 states allow some form of early voting you think its a bad strategy to court those voters aggressively?

Obama's campaign certainly does not think so.

Obama's campaign said it has placed 500,000 "neighbor to neighbor" calls trying to lock in early voters in California and Arizona. Absentee voters in Phoenix have gotten visits from Obama canvassers. In Obama's home state, Illinois, elected officials in Chicago helped to kick off early voting activities for the senator.

The Obama campaign said it also has pursued early voters in Tennessee, Utah and Georgia.

"All Obama supporters have been reminded about early voting and been given the tools to do so," said Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt.

He has basically lost !

Here in CA the best I am hoping for Obama is to pull 40% and get a fairly decent split in delegates. But so many votes have already been cast for Edwards, for example, and others no longer viable that even a 50-40-10 (Clinton-Obama-Others) may be a tough climb.

There is no doubt about Clinton's lead in the mail-in ballots due to her long-time strong polling here and the relatively recent Obama climb in polling