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Can Obama make in-roads in NY?

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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:31 PM
Original message
Can Obama make in-roads in NY?
And cut into Hillary's huge lead in NY?

Or will this be a definite Hillary blowout?

Obama may get some very strong support in New York City and the surrounding boroughs. Hillary will probably blow Obama out of the water in every other part of the state.

Will that make NY a respectable state for Obama, or will Clinton take NY by a blowout 20+ point margin?
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. Obama has a decent chance to win NYC.
Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 03:33 PM by Bleachers7
The most recent poll has him 4 points behind. He'll be able to cause Hillary delegate problems in NYC, and probably LI too.
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neutron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Just Like He Won Florida
Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 03:37 PM by neutron
Sorry O. This is Hillary Country.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. This isn't.
She's going to have trouble in 4 out of 5 boroughs. She will also probably not break 60% in CD 3, 4, and 5.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. What recent poll?
Do you have a link?
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. Marist: Here you go
Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 03:38 PM by Bleachers7
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4266505&mesg_id=4266505
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Thank you
The most recent poll, from USA Today/Gallup, shows Hillary with a 56-28 lead. Two very different results from polling. It will be very interesting to see how this develops.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Actually, those are the results from New York City
Hillary still leads the rest of the state by a wide margin, 48-32.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:52 PM
Original message
That's correct
That was my original point. Obama might be able to suck up a lot of delegates.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 04:08 PM
Response to Original message
24. Do you have any idea of how delegates are awarded in NY?
Are there alot of delegates to be had in NYC?
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. 6 per congressional district and there's a lot of them.
Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 04:19 PM by Bleachers7


Obama should be good for 3-4 delegates per district in most NYC districts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_congressional_district
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Thank you
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leftynyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
18. The city - maybe
Long Island - no way. His only chance is in the 5 boroughs.
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Fredda Weinberg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. I'll predict a blowout, but she might take my election district n/t
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Azathoth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
3. It won't be a blowout...she'll win, but not by anywhere near the same margin that Obama will win IL
n/t
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
5. He already has
You dismiss him doing well or maybe even winning NYC, but if he does he will get more delegates from just NYC than many other states offer. I also think he will do pretty well in the burbs.
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neutron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. You don't live here, I take it
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. I do live in NY.
Where do you live?
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. But you didn't answer my point if Obama does well in NYC
he wins a bunch of delegates. I don't live there but I did read that.
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jaysunb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
10. Obama will play well in Buffalo,Albany& Rochester
as well as NYC.
The Clintons may well be in for a surprise....
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
11. He won rural NV
He has already proven himself with rural voters. He's a natural for city voters. If he can get in there with working single moms, he'll have it made.
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ieoeja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #11
21. He also won rural New Hampshire and Iowa. Hillary has been winning the cities.

But that was before she started losing the African-American vote. The question is has he now lost rural Caucasians, i.e. will New Yorkers think of Obama as the "Black candidate"? They didn't in the previous three primaries, but if things changed for blacks they may well have changed for whites as well.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. I don't see it that way
She hasn't won a typical Dem city which is typically minority and liberal. Rural voters in the north and west are not the same as rural voters in the south. Nobody thinks of him as a black candidate. Most of what you hear on MSNBC is just kooky and is not what I'm hearing where I live at all, northwest rural. People trust him and think he's a good man and are going to vote based on that.
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
15. if he can do well upstate, he'll get at least 40% of the vote
I think he can go 50-50 with Hillary in NYC. I think Hillary will take Long Island 60-40. If Obama can hold Clinton to 55-45 upstate, than he has a shot to break even with her essentially.

I predict, overall, the NY total will be Hillary 53-47 over Obama.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
16. He's got to make a play... won't get the win but delegates are
proportional. If he can gain a virtual split in delegates by dominating IL and being relatively competitive in NY and CA (the three big states), then Obama might be able to get enough wins and delegates out of the other 19 states (many of whom he was leading even last month - GA, AL, MS, CO) to come out the Super Tuesday overall winner in delegates. And that's a WIN at this stage.

That's my (and likely his) super Tuesday strategy.
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:45 PM
Response to Original message
19. He could get some districts in NYC
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KennedyGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
20. NYC..Maybe..the rest No way...
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H2O Man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
23. In the 2006 re-election
to the US Senate, Hillary Clinton won almost every county, including the very republican upstate ones. No other democrat has done anything close, including RFK and Moynihan. Her margins were way beyond the independents, meaning that she had significant female republican support.

It is possible that Barack Obama can get some support downstate. But Senator Clinton should have a large margin of victory.
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