OP deleted. Why? 1) Glaring mathematical errors; 2) I'm dumber than a bag of rocks.

*sigh*

Sorry.

See "Sorry, you're wrong" reply below.

I missed 7 new EC votes in my '08 calculations.

Back to the abacus...

is supposed to be trending Democratic also. Let's hope it's nation wide.

Thanks for the good news.

Montana (!!).

Mark Warner (D) will replace John Warner (R) as Virginia's other Senator.

Colorado (!!).

Nebraska (!!).

22 of the 34 Senators running for re-election in November are GOPers, most of whom have Bush stapled to their foreheads. At least 6 of those look to be Dem pick-ups...maybe more.

20+ GOP House Reps are stepping down.

Dem turnout in the primaries/caucuses so far has been MASSIVE; 2-1 over GOP turnout...and because so many Dem-leaning Senate/House seats are up for grabs, it'll get Dems to turn out in even lager numbers come November.

The GOP base DESPISES McCain, and the GOP doesn't win if the base stays home on election day.

Dem candidate campaign cash/fundraising muscle is beating the shit out of GOP campaign cash coffers. TPM sez: "A Democratic source who tracks media buys tells me something interesting that reflects how bad the environment is for Repubs this year: He says that no GOP candidate has a single ad up on the air in any of the Feb. 5th states, even though Super Tuesday is a week away." (link: http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/source_no_gop_candidate_is_on_the_air_in_any_feb_5th_state.php )

The GOP Establishment will start chopping McCain down before we have the chance. They have to; as much of a sell-out as he's been, a McCain nomination will geld the GOP base's horses completely...and their people run the GOP Establishment these days.

McCain went with Ted Kennedy on immigration (anathema to the GOP base), went with Feingold on campaign finance reform (anathema to the NRA and the GOP base), and called Pat Robertson "an agent of intolerance" (proving that he is Satan to GOP base).

We have the advantage. I like our chances no matter who wins. McCain is the flavor of the month, just like he was in 2000, because he pampers the media with the access and report-grist that journalists covet. It didn't last then, it won't last now.

MHO. ;)

and it will undoubtedly be more. Amazing isn't it?

Who needs thievery or mayhem? The Rethugs only need to make sure that Diebold, ES&S and LHS are counting the votes.

Aren't you assuming that everyone on the other side is willing to play fair.

How many people does it take to steal an election? The answer is not many.

How are we gonna guarantee "No Ohio thievery, no Florida mayhem..."?

As Joseph Stalin is reported to have said:
"The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Joseph_Stalin

We could lose PA. Or MN, or WI, or NM.

We could do that even if the votes are perfectly counted.

This ain't no guarantee.

I'm just trying to remind people that we are not, in fact, doomed and guaranteed to fail should it be a McCain v. Clinton or McCain v. Obama contest.

Far from it, if simple math still works nowadays.

;)

both Iowa and New Mexico were blue for Gore in 2000, and red for Kerry in 2004.

That negates the NH red for Gore, blue for Kerry.

This one will still be close, and I'm still betting it comes down to Ohio, Michigan and Florida.

I hope I'm wrong and people are so tired of these assholes that we do a clean sweep... well as much of a clean sweep as possible.

Ham Sandwich is electable folks. Quit saying it's not! Vote your heart, and your stomach.

Re-apportionment has occurred since 2000 and unfortunately that gave more electoral votes to the red states. Gore's 2000 states plus New Hampshire leaves us 7 votes short.

Correct you are.

Off to delete the OP.

Thanks.

*sigh*

I thought the same thing when I first started looking at the '04 electoral math. I was like all Kerry has to do is win the Gore states and New Hampshire and certainly he can take New Hampshire, it's in his back yard.

Then I found out there had been re-apportionment. Then I realized why Ohio was such a big deal. It was the state where Kerry was closest to Bush that had enough electoral votes to put him over the top.

Gore won it in 2000, and the coal-industry workers have no love for the GOP these days.

Arkansas? Iowa? Colorado?

:banghead:

I got some more state-by-state poll research that needs to be done.

Clinton won it twice by a wide margin and Dukakis even won it.

For some reason after 2000, West Virginia very rapidly turned over to the dark side. The conventional wisdom is that it's over the Clenis and that they sympathize with the GOP on social issues.

I'd also imagine that the GOP can appeal to coal miners by painting Democrats as fringe environmentalists that will pass laws that will put their industry out of business.

by convincing the coal workers that Gore was a tree-hugging environmental fanatic who would, if elected, immediately annihilate the entire coal industry by fiat.

Period. That was the swing.

Since then, the Bush admin's safety-deregulation frenzy got a lot of WV miners killed...so that swing-bloc isn't too fond of the GOP nowadays. It's a potential get, for sure.

If McCain wins their nomination he is going to have to pick a VP from one of the other GOP constituencies. My guess is that he will pick a VP who their religious fanatics like rather than somebody from the corporate wing.

I know there is a fantasy that he will pick Lieberman but I can't see that. He needs to shore up the base.

They all speak the GOP base's language, and there's NO electoral math that has the GOP winning if the base stays home.

Hell, if there is massive Black voter turnout in central-and-deep-South states (which seems quite likely to happen whether it's Obama or Clinton), combined with similar turnout in Mississippi River states like AK and MO, combined with large-volume Dem-base voter turnout in general...combined with a pissed-off GOP base deciding to sit this one out (definitely possible if it's McCain or Romney heading the ticket)...

...it could wind up becoming what the electoral wizards like to call a "Nation-wide political realignment." In other words, we could actually take down a Red stronghold or two...and if it seems too farfetched, ask yourself if you even once imagined it could be possible for Conrad fuckin-fa-chrissakes Burns to lose his Montana Senate seat to a Democrat.

He did.

I dunno. I like our chances.

But back to the original issue: Huck, Brownback or Hunter will probably be the VP pick no matter who wins the GOP nominee. They need the base to turn out, and those three can cajole at least some of those voters to hold their noses in November.

Just misssed it.

Bound to fuck anyone up.

I'm fully sober, just unable to fall asleep (my annual February insomnapalooza festival arrived early this year). No excuse for wide-eyed dumbassery when the blood flows unspoiled. :)

But now I use a downloaded Sumerian glossary. Nothing like words you don't understand and can't connect to provide white noise in a too busy brain. Unfortunately, now I do understand them and I'm moving on to Basque.