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What would constitute a Super Tuesday win for Obama?

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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 08:57 AM
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What would constitute a Super Tuesday win for Obama?
Knowing that he's going against a front runner who led him by double digits as recently as last Saturday, what type of victory would give Obama momentum heading into the post Super Tuesday primaries?

In the same vane, knowing that Hillary was the national front runner, what constitutes a loss for her?
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 08:59 AM
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1. Roughly same number of delegates for Obama. A close vote in CA. Bringing in Vermont
Edited on Thu Jan-31-08 09:02 AM by cryingshame
as a 'white' state to shut up the perpetual comments and also a southern state to do same.

The Clintons can try to lower the expectations game all they want. Unless it's a clear, decise victory, she's weak. Her numbers are crumbling nationally anyway. If she has to depend on the fact so many races were heaped into one day so close after NV, what does that say about her as a candidate?

Clintons have to depend on making sure voters don't get a chance to see Obama in person. HOW FUCKED UP IS THAT?

If Obama keeps it close, then he is in the catbird seat. He will win most other states afterwards.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 09:02 AM
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4. We don't vote here on ST and no one cares what VT does. At best
we're considered quirky and at worst, we're the damn socialist state of latte drinking volvo drivers. And we'll definitely go for Obama on town meeting day in March. We voted for Jesse Jackson in 1998.

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billbuckhead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 08:59 AM
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2. And what constitutes a win for Hillary as well?
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 09:01 AM
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3. A better delegate count...
the media seems geared up to actually talk about delegate counts instead of only focusing on state wins. I read a great article(which I can't find anymore :cry: ) that talked about how California is set up in a such a way that Obama could lose by a large single digit but still come out with more delegates if he plays his cards right and Hillary plays her cards wrong.
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Meshuga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 09:03 AM
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5. Obama needs to come up with a significant number of delegates
almost splitting with clinton. He doesn't have to beat Clinton but getting 40% of the delegate pool would be a huge victory.
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Apollo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 09:04 AM
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6. California is looking close.
Obama needs to win at least 5 States on Feb 5th to stay in the game.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 09:04 AM
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7. Coming within 125 delegates would be a huge win for him
Winning NYC would get a lot of press. Coming close in CA, MA, CT would be a big blow to Hillary's campaign. Winning 8 or 9 states outright would be good too.

If he's close, it's bad news for Hill.
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LVjinx Donating Member (711 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-31-08 09:26 AM
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8. With Edwards out
No one really knows what those states look like now. Last weeks polls are completely irrelevant unless Edwards supporters split 50/50. We know they won't, and we know some won't even vote without their man in the race.

Realistically, Hillary has to win by at least enough, and Barack has to win by at least enough, to keep their delegates as close to each other as possible to avoid "losing." If one of them pulls away to a 100-vote margin or more that can be construed as a "victory." But then there's those blasted superdelegates to worry about. They're supposed to mostly break to Hillary, but publicly a lot of them seem to be endorsing Obama (govs and senators).

If Hillary can't gain a lead coming out of Super Tuesday things won't be going well for her - but I expect her to do well at this point. The debate may settle a lot.
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