Obama is rising in California according to the latest Rassmussen poll but

What does that mean when there are so many people in California who already voted? I am hoping that Obama takes as many delegates as he possibly can but I think Clinton already has CA locked. Would you agree?

It would be huge if Obama manages a win in CA given all that is going against him. And it would be a huge blow to the Clinton campaign.

the race is stacked in her favor as a result.

Its a shame.

Or a shame that people voted before the MSM created faux "momentum" for Obama?

That's a pretty fucking pathetic thing to say.

Now go start a negative thread so you can have fun with your little buddies. Stop pissing in this one.

I think Obama has a good shot. He still might lose, but it won't be by much.

But I am expecting him to close the gap and taking a nice chunk of the CA delegates.

HRC had a 5% lead at that time, it's most likely that the votes skewed in her favor around 5% (of course depending demographic of the early voters as well). I think from this moment on, things begin to tighten - and by Election day, I would imagine Obama will be ahead in votes cast (for that day), or tied. I'm thinking the delegates awarded are going to be very close. Unless there's some blowout factor between now and then that tilts to one or the other.

And that's a victory for Obama. An actual win would be HUGE! :-)

She should be doing it every single day though, and not on the 4th. Spend the whole weekend at it.

as many delegates as he can, whether he "wins" or not.

there is yet to take in any response to Hillary's very good vote tally in Florida, plus what surprises the debate throws up tonight. After the last 2 debates over 50% said it was an important factor in who they voted for.

Polls in this last week are useless i think, we better just wait until next Tuesday to see what happens.

If the % spread was huge it would mean someone was about a million ahead or more. If thats the case, its a landslide for delegates. If its a small percentage then the vote tally spread is still a large amount but not as huge but still makes a big difference in delegates.

so say Clinton gets 1.5 million and Obama 1 million, then its 60% to 40%, if its 2.5 million for Clinton and 2 million for obama then its 55 to 45%. Edwards will still be a factor, because of early voting and probaly will take about 10%

The real problem is estimating the turn out, if its huge, then there could be a big difference in spread, if its a low turnout, then there probably wont be. but with California, if someone wins bt 1/2 million, it reall means roughly about 5 to 10 %.

the people who are most likely to vote early are those who have solidly made up their minds and probably won't change. I think undecideds and weak identifiers are more likely to wait till the last minute to send in an early vote.