Poll: Who has the momentum going into Super Tuesday?

TeamJordan23

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Thu Jan-31-08 11:51 AM
Original message

Poll question: Poll: Who has the momentum going into Super Tuesday?

Obama or Clinton

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SteppingRazor

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Thu Jan-31-08 11:56 AM
Response to Original message

1. I think the momentum is clearly on Obama's side. The only question is...

whether that momentum is enough to put him over the top. I don't know that it is.

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scheming daemons

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. There are no "winner-take-all" states.....

...in the Democratic party.... so it doesn't matter if he gets "over the top".

There are 441 delegates in California. Based on the polls, they're each going to get at least 200 of them.....

...so for the "horse race"... it really doesn't matter except for a P.R. perspective.

There are 1600+ delegates up for grabs on Tuesday, and I suspect that each candidate will get at least 750 of them.

If it ends up 850-ish to 750-ish... the "winner" will spin it, but in reality, it will decide nothing.

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SteppingRazor

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. I'm aware of all that. Hell, just yesterday I posted this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4293096&mesg_id=4293096

In any case, you're dismissing the "PR" aspect of this as though it's not important. If one or the other candidate wins 18 or 19 states, even if it's really close, that candidate will have a massive advantage in the states that vote in the rest of the month and into March.

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jefferson_dem

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:12 PM
Response to Original message

4. Hillary is desperately trying to run out the clock.

Not going to work.

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redqueen

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:13 PM
Response to Original message

5. These results are surprising...

I would have guessed Hillary, based on the stuff I hear from everyday people (not politics junkies). All they're talking about is "the snub".

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Metric System

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. Well, you have to remember that DU is not representative of the public at large. If you went by the

number of Hillary supporters on here you'd assume she was a fringe candidate.

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Bitwit1234

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:22 PM
Response to Original message

6. gee winning one state two weeks ago is momentum

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Flabbergasted

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. Momentum?

http://www.pollster.com/USTopzDems.php

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Jai4WKC08

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Thu Jan-31-08 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #8

12. Ummm... that graph is four days old

Not a very good measure of momentum.

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Flabbergasted

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Thu Jan-31-08 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #12

13. There appears to be upward swing lasting for months. That's momentum.

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Jai4WKC08

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Thu Jan-31-08 06:49 PM
Response to Reply #13

14. Point taken. However...

The beginning of the upward trend seems to start when the pollsters stopped including Gore as a possible candidate. Clinton and Edwards pretty much hold steady from that point forward. I wonder if it isn't more that Gore voters have tended to slowly settle on Obama, which isn't the exact same thing as momentum, altho I suppose it contributes to it.

When I think of momentum, I think of the force that builds from one primary or caucus win to the next, which is why I discounted numbers that were not completely up to date. But I will grant you that momentum can also include pre-primary trends.

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Freddie Stubbs

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Thu Jan-31-08 12:30 PM
Response to Original message

9. Obama clearly has momentum, but one thing to keep in mind is that

many of these states have early and absentee voting. Many people have already cast their ballots.

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Hawkowl

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Thu Jan-31-08 01:43 PM
Response to Original message

10. Momentum is one thing

Momentum is merely a trend. HRC simply has to play defense and run out the clock. Obama has to come from behind and make it overwhelming or the Clinton's will continue to snipe at him and attack and smear with surrogates. He has a VERY difficult task.

And as people have pointed out, many have already voted by mail.

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grantcart

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Thu Jan-31-08 01:45 PM
Response to Original message

11. Obama

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