Great Super Tuesday preview:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831

Super Tuesday Preview, 1/31/08
by poblano
Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:40:17 AM PST

Man, I’m glad I waited a couple of days to do this. Or maybe I’m not. I can’t recall an election when so many things were coalescing on any one point in time:

#1. Clinton effectively ends the race on Super Tuesday (10%). Clinton limits Obama to winning Illinois, Georgia, and 2-3 smaller caucus states. She wins a couple of states that Obama was supposed to win, like Alabama and Colorado. She wins California by at least 12 points, and New York by at least 20-25 points.

#2. Clinton has the lead, but it’s anybody’s nomination (25%). Obama wins Illinois, Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Utah, and Kansas, and keeps the California margin to some reasonable number, but Hillary wins all of the states she’s supposed to win, plus sweeps most or all of the swing states like Minnesota and Connecticut.

#3. The race is truly too close to call (35%). Something like the base case scenario I’ve outlined above.

#4. Obama has the lead, but it’s anybody’s nomination (25%). It might not take a whole heck of a lot to go from #3 to #4, because the media will be quick to anoint Obama with the momentum if he beats expectations, and his expectations remain lower. Also, as we discussed last time, the rest of February is probably the most favorable part of the schedule for Obama, so he could consolidate this momentum by winning the Beltway states on February 12th. If Obama wins California by any margin, he will probably be regarded as the frontrunner, even if he has a couple of small stumbles elsewhere. He might also be regarded as the frontrunner if he loses California narrowly, but he wins at least two states from the following group: Arizona, New Mexico, Missouri, Tennessee, Connecticut, Massachusetts. By the way, another underrated advantage for Obama is that if John McCain effectively ends the Republican nomination on February 5th, Obama will get the bulk of independent support in any remaining open primary states.

#5. Obama effectively ends the race on Super Tuesday (5%). Obama wins California, plus at least four out of the six states in that "leans Hillary" group above. If, for example, Hillary were limited to wins in New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Arkansas, New Mexico, and Tennessee, that would probably cause enough consolidation around Obama to effectively end the race.

Happy politicking.