Obama Pulls Into Virtual Tie With Clinton In California & Massachusetts

Polls show Obama surging in three states thought to be sure-fire Clinton wins and winning among white voters in California...

Talk about a good day for Barack Obama so far. Two new polls from Rasmussen have him surging in California and Massachusetts.

Rasmussen's California Democratic primary poll has Obama and Hillary Clinton now in a statistical tie, with Clinton at 43% and Obama at 40%. This is the closest Obama has ever been in California and confirms other recent data that he is making up ground fast in a state that was always thought to be a sure win for Clinton.

Rasmussen's Massachusetts Democratic primary poll has Hillary Clinton now holding on to a small lead, 43% to 37%. The stunning news from this poll is that another poll done LAST WEEK of Massachusetts had Clinton winning by 37 POINTS! This obviously seems to indicate that Obama's national movement, as well as the Ted Kennedy endorsement, has led to a massive surge for Obama in the state.

The two polls follow yesterday's Connecticut poll that shows that state is now a 40%-40% tie. It should be noted, though, that all three of the polls were daily polls which tend to have a higher margin of error. Regardless though, they do confirm upward movement for Obama.

Both California and Massachusetts have long been thought to be sure wins for Clinton, and most figured that Obama just needed to stay within 10-15 points of her in both states in hopes of getting a fair share of the state's delegates. Obviously he is now doing better than that. Should he pull off a win in CA, it is very likely that the media will focus on that story above whatever else happens on February 5th. Though it should be noted that over a million people in California have already voted via absentee ballot, and those votes will probably heavily favor Clinton who has had large leads in the state up until now.

The key number from the California poll -- Obama is beating Clinton among white voters. The racial divide that happened in South Carolina does not seem to be happening in states outside of the South (as evident by this poll and the recent poll of Connecticut), which is very good news for Obama and very bad news for Clinton who purposely played the race card in hopes of rallying white voters behind her. This also confirms what I wrote about a few days ago -- that the racial divide story was more of a media fabrication than an actual truth.

The other big number from the California poll is that while 69% of those polled said they had made up their mind, the other 31% said they still could change their mind. That, coupled with the 9% that said they supported John Edwards (who is now out) and the 4% who said they aren't sure, leaves a lot of room for movement in the final days before February 5th. The one-on-one Clinton vs. Obama debate in California tonight should play a huge role in who ends up winning the state.


link: http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/68139/Obama-Pulls-Into-Virtual-Tie-With-Clinton-In-California-&-Massachusetts.htm

Which, in a nutshell means that it will probably go up some more over the next few days.

Gobama!

already have voted.I think it's like 40% absentee these days

That 40% is divided between Republicans, Democrats and Not Commited.

...at least according to Patt Morrison:

Early Birds Miss The Point

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-morrison31jan31,0,6303108.column

Just thinking about Obama beating Hillary next Tuesday is exhilarating!

I sure hope he wins the democratic nomination, cause Hillary would be hard to support.

Well said. I don't want to have to be Hillary supporter.

:rofl:

It's the most obvious truth out there, and its amazing how blind some people can be.

There is one thing, and one thing only that can unite and rally the Republican Party this year - and that's a Hillary / Bill Clinton nomination.

I think both candidates can win in November. McCain is weak. He can be easily aligned with Bush and the candidate who would continue the blunders of this current administration. We are going to have either a Woman or an African American working in the oval office in January of 2009.

There is one thing and one thing only that will unite Republicans behind John McCain. And that is their absolute fear and loathing of Billary. I use that term on purpose to emphasize how they see it.

A McCain vs. Clinton election becomes an "Anybody but Clinton" election for the Republican Party.

It's not rocket science.

And frankly, I think its overconfidence like yours that is the biggest threat to victory in 2009. It is not a shoe-in.

He has the means to inject a lot of dough in the later primaries and win the nomination.

is looking good but maybe instead of placing one poll then maybe two to three so we can see the variables in different polling. Never fully liked the rasmussen polls because rasmussen does the polling for fox and there could be a lil slant and then again when you have dick the toe morris and robert the outer novak in your group then something is off...way off

from the polls i see and i do see rsmussen his polling is so out of line with the others...survey usa clinton 57 obama 33 taken 1/30
in Mass.... in california survey clinton 49 obama 38 taken 1/29 and will not list rasmussen as it has already been posted in the main thread.

rcp poll averages clinton 45 obama 33 and edwards not included...california
rcp poll averages clinton 47 obama 31 and edwards not included ..new jersey