WP, page one: Candidates Narrow Focus to 18 States

Candidates Narrow Focus to 18 States
Battle Has Begun In Most-Contested Areas of Nation
By Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, March 15, 2004; Page A01


The election-night mapmakers created an indelible image of political America in 2000: red states for Republicans, blue states for Democrats, and a handful of states, crowned by disputed Florida, that remained competitive until the very end. Campaign 2004 begins where 2000 left off....

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Judging from interviews with strategists on both sides and with outside analysts, 10 of the closest states from four years ago are seen as the most competitive as the campaign begins. Bush and Gore split them five-five. The Bush states that may be most vulnerable to Democratic takeover are Florida, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire and Nevada, while the five Gore states eyed by the GOP are Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico....

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Four years ago, the loss of one more state of any size would have cost Bush the election. That is no longer the case because of reapportionment after the 2000 Census. If Bush were to win all the states he won and Kerry won all of Gore's states, the electoral count would be 278 to 260, an advantage of 18 electoral votes for Bush rather than four.

But another set of numbers could push some states toward the Democrats. Those are figures relating to unemployment and job losses. Democrats say their formula is simple: Any toss-up state from 2000 that has suffered a net job loss or whose unemployment rate is above the national average is a prime target....

(much more in this analysis)


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58663-2004Mar14.html