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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:19 AM
Original message
Bush Leads In New Hampshire
Edited on Fri Mar-19-04 11:22 AM by Bombtrack
In New Hampshire, another battleground state, President Bush leads John Kerry in 45% to 39%, with Ralph Nader at 8%, according to a new American Research Group Poll. Without Nader, it is Bush 47% and Kerry 45%.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/presballot/

I figured that last college poll with Edwards and Kerry both leading Bush by double digits was crap. ARG is NH based. Unfortunatly we still have an uphill battle in NH. We need to flood it with the rest of New England democrats.
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stepnw1f Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. American Research Group
Whatever...
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Uh, it's based in New Hampshire
it's better than that crappy college poll that was last done.
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Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. ARG was pretty accurate
during the primaries, I believe.

Their daily tracking polls accurately predicted the trends.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Uh, no
Edited on Fri Mar-19-04 11:32 AM by mobuto
ARG is well respected. I believe this poll. Kerry had a great run for a couple of weeks, and then he screwed up some this past week. Its natural his numbers will fall a bit. The point is, that this race will be incredibly close.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
3. Who are these 8% folks
me thinks they a little :crazy:
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Really. I've yet to meet one Nader voter. Why don't they freaking
speak up.
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tobius Donating Member (947 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. i'm no nader voter, but they may be scared to stick their head up
because they feel it will probably be chopped off.
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flaminbats Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #4
30. I've known some...
Edited on Fri Mar-19-04 05:33 PM by flaminbats
most of them voted for Nader in 2000 but Democratic locally. In reality most of them are really Democrats who are having second thoughts about voting for Nader again..another reason for us not to drive them out!

The real question should be why doesn't Kerry favor IRV?
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LeftPeopleFinishFirst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
7. The interesting numbers there are..
The 13 percent of Republicans voting for Kerry vs. the 9 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.
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maisey03 Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
8. New Hampshire
I'm surprised that Bush could be doing so well in a state like NH - aren't they liberal up there? But, he did win NH in 2000, right? Sorry, I'm pretty new to the world of politics. I do think the liberal states, particularly the New England ones, are just as important as the midwest. They don't seem to be getting much attention! That's the only reason I'm hesitant about Clark and Edwards. If Kucinich were only more popular, I'd say put him on - he's got the liberal and trade issues all in one.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. No
not really
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #8
14. There is only 1 swingstate and 1 longshot in New England
New Hampshire is a swingstate, a tossup. And Maine is a longshot bluestate, meaning it's a longshot for the GOP.

As far as NH being liberal, it isn't. I sort of liken it to Indiana. The midwest and New England used to be the strongholds of the GOP, but that's really withered away and your left with New England being heavily democratic, with one republican-leaning swingstate left(presidential-wise, they're still far right w/ congress), and the midwest leaning slightly democratic, with one heavily republican state(Indiana) and a bunch of tossups.
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maisey03 Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Vermont
Edited on Fri Mar-19-04 11:56 AM by maisey03
Is anyone concerned that VT will rebel and go the Nader or Dean write-in route? I know they would normally be in the clear, but they seem to have so much loyalty for Dean...

That's interesting about NH - they're in a bad location for a moderate state! :D
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. No.
Vermont will vote Democratic.
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Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. New Hampshire used to be very, very Conservative
but it has changed in recent years, as many people from Massachusetts have moved there.

But it's not a Dem state; it's a Republican state that sometimes votes Dem.
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Atlant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. The trouble with that theory is that...
> New Hampshire used to be very, very Conservative but it has changed
> in recent years, as many people from Massachusetts have moved there.

The trouble with that theory is that it's the only the Right Wing
Assholes who chose to move from Massachusetts to here (to join their
Right Wing Brethren already here); the liberals know what they've
got in Massachusetts and stay there. NH is still anathema for
liberalism.

Atlant
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Atlant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #8
19. NH is the home of the Republican Party. We're also the chosen site of...
> I'm surprised that Bush could be doing so well in a state like NH -
> aren't they liberal up there?

I think you have us confused with Vermont, home of Howard Dean.

NH is the home of the Republican Party. We're also the chosen site of
the "Free State Project", an invasion by Libertarians. We're the place
that all the Massacusetts Republicans move to in the hopes of paying
less tax. Being a liberal may actually be some kind of crime in this
state.
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delhurgo Donating Member (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
10. Kerry has had a bad couple of weeks.
First there was the "liars and crooks" remark, then saying foreign leaders are for him, then the heckler incident,...I can't remember what all else. But it all seems to have occurred at the same time. I'm surprised he's made so many mistakes. He was so sure footed during the primaries, and he's normally a very careful politician.

And also the negative ads are starting to take effect: they're making him look especially bad re taxes and national security.

The earlier polls weren't wrong; they've just changed that much. His campaign needs to get a grip.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
12. who is voting for Nader
More Republicans than Democrats according to this poll--9% of Republicans vs. 4% of Democrats. That is interesting.
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
13. What's wrong with these people?
Edited on Fri Mar-19-04 11:42 AM by Jacobin
Did the entire rural population of Alabama move there?
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Atlant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
18. Why do you think NH "Democrats" voted for Kerry?
Could it be that a significant fraction of the vote in the NH
"Democratic" Primary actually came from Republicans who want
Bush to win?

Iowa and NH are *TERRIBLE* places to pick Democratic "contenders".

Atlant
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:16 PM
Response to Original message
20. WTF?! How nice for Mr. Bush and his elf, Nader.
:nuke:
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TheStateChief Donating Member (232 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:16 PM
Response to Original message
21. Wasn't Kerry Up 15% Last Month?
Losing that much support in one month is just amazing. How can this be happening?
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. No he wasn't
In fact a January poll by the Concord Monitor showed Bush up by 14 points, so Kerry's actually doing quite well. This race will be close and Kerry's had a rough week, but his poll numbers look good.
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PA-DEM Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. voters (157 Republicans, 130 Democrats, and 176 undeclared voters)
Is it just me or does this seem a little off balance?

voters (157 Republicans, 130 Democrats, and 176 undeclared voters)





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Atlant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. That wouldn' be at all surprising.
"Undeclared" is very popular in NH; it's tres chic for all those
angry white men who are Republicans but don't want to admit it
to themselves, their wives, or anyone else.

And the best part is that THEY GET TO VOTE IN OUR PRIMARY! :(

That's why you got Kerry instead of someone who would actually
stand up for anything. :( :(

Atlant
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rumguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
26. check out the new Zogby poll in GD
Kerry is ahead.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 03:49 PM
Response to Original message
27. Nader may not make it on NH ballot
Edited on Fri Mar-19-04 04:29 PM by zulchzulu
From Nader site:
"Need to submit 3,000 valid signatures, 1,500 from each of two congressional districts therefore our goal is to collect 4,000 signatures - 2,000 from each district - by June 2."

So if you see someone trying to sign up people for Nader, do your job. Sign up as George Bush.
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mot78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Be careful with that remark
Or else FR and Neal Boortz will quote it.
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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-19-04 04:11 PM
Response to Original message
29. im an hour from the border
let's get to it!
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