Election Projection updated electoral map - bushie ahead

I posted this link a few weeks ago when they had Kerry ahead in electoral votes. Yes, I know it is a right wing site. Their 4/30 map has bushie ahead 274 to 264 in electoral votes, stating he has taken Florida but lost New Hampshire.

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

State by state polling data here...

http://www.electionprojection.com/data.html

On their Edicts and Commentary page they state they have overhauled their formula. I guess that is why it took them so long to update their map. They had to find a formula giving bushie the winning numbers.

http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html

No way in hell Bush is taking Arizona (my state) Judging by the fact that elected a governor who openly said she is "liberal and proud of it"

I really don't think that this scenario will play out. The only thing I agree with is that we will gain NH. But Bush will not get Ohio. Not this year. He won't get Nevada, or Arizona. He may well lose Missouri too.

They have Kerry winning by a greater margin than Gore in 2000.

did you read his blurb at the bottom of the page? I hate rosy projections from both sides. Just the facts please.

Polls with different sample sizes, different margins of error, et cetera? Kind of makes his results a bit unreliable.

& lose electorally, there will be hell to pay!

they have to admit Kerry will get more of the popular vote. What's up with that?

He has Kerry ahead by 1%, double Gore's lead. That means that Kerry will win by at least 1 million votes. It is extremely doubtful that he would lose the Electoral Votes with this lead. After all, Gore won the popular AND the electoral votes (he WON FL). Bush stole it.

His analysis is fallacious. He apportions the Nader votes to Gore (50%) and Bush (20%). That is a 30% differential (.90 million votes) which would have put Gore over the top in Florida (although he didn't need it) and NH.

So his numbers are inconsistent. He is a X-tian fundie getting his jollies living in a dream world. Deep-down, he is hoping that Bush will STEAL it again.

Right now, my best estimate is that Kerry will get at least 53%, so he will defeat Bush handily in the EV. Kerry will beat Bush by at least 6 million votes. Here's why.

Kerry is slightly ahead now and the trend is his friend. He is fine-tuning his speeches. He hasn't spent his money yet, while Bush has shot half his load. Bush scandals are mainstream now. Iraq is a mess. REAL jobs are not being created. Bush is sinking every month in the polls. Dems are united; Repubs are deserting Bush. That's why.

Bank on it.

... The Culture War divide is unbridgable, meaning it is probably the case that both candidates are starting from a stronger base than at any time since Reconstruction.

Still, everything you say about the trends and forces likely to be effectual is true. But I look for a Kerry win in the 50-47 or 49-46 range, in the 283-255 range in the Electoral College.

He seems like a nice kid, but apparently his parents die yet the voting population as a whole remains immortal as demographics and intransigent over a 4 year span.

In the course of the four years between that election and this next one about 10 million people will have died. Almost all of them elderly, and most of them politically quite conservative or ambivalent. About 6 million of them voted. They are now replaced by people who grew up in more Modern times and apply more Modern standards to American politics. In the '90s this process meant a margin change of +3 million votes and +3% for Democrats every Presidential election year while Republican vote numbers were close to stagnant. And Gore got 48.5%....

This poor kid is batting .150 in Double A imagines he's got the stuff to make it to the majors. I'll buy a clue for Scott for $150, Pat, and then we'll spin....

Oh, he's wrong on West Virginia, it's a swing state. Missouri, OTOH, is a long shot at best for Democrats- it's more Southern than WV or Florida. And he should be looking at the Incumbent Rule a little bit and the upper limits to voting percentage when compared to Approval percentage, because tallying Ohio and Florida as Bush wins isn't warranted by the numbers. So he's off by 48 EVs already and at least 2% in the popular vote. It's just not going to be his year.

and unsupported. I'd like to know how they derived it.

I would like to know how it worked releative to other elections before I buy into it.

It seems the more direct, who are you voting for in November, and how sure are you? would probably produce better numbers than the elusive logic in the formula.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/04%20Electoralcollegescoreboard.pdf

Sorry about it being Adobe but ... :shrug: