Zogby basically calls the election for Kerry

http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html

The Election Is Kerry's To Lose
By John Zogby

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.

In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

...more...

So take that for what it's worth.

I could NOT resist... :spank:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=1567935&mesg_id=1567935

:)

Very nice...maybe true, way to early to say. Too bad there're six months to go.

Bush is going down. Kerry is up.

into the arms of Sanity and Reason. She will welcome them with open arms into a place very comfortable...away from the Madness that is Conservatism.

He's right...if we all do our jobs...

if martiaL Law is not decLared, and eLections are heLd... it's kerry in a LandsLide. i caLL a LandsLide even with the possibiLity of dieboLd rigging.

president john f. kerry

disgraced former president george w. bush

and GOTV then Zogby is right, Kerry will WIN!

Even old dick morris is digging up old bones...still on the Clintons.

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So far all I hear is "bring our allies in."

Meanwhile NATO just said, "I'm not touching that with a 10 foot pole."

They don't trust him and don't like him.

and we know this from past elections and debates. There is no - absolutely NO DOUBT in my mind that he will win this election.

The Kerry campaign needs to be able to make ad buys that are similar in size to the GOPs in the final weeks.

Keep shaking the trees for fundraising sources. That's where the campaign will be determined.

Bush has a horrible record to run from.

It just seems to me that giving voters real choices is the way to go.

Huffington and Zogby seem to think so at least.

he's GOOFY and STUPID and IGNORANT and EVIL - certainly not charismatic.

Going back to spring 1980 - "Desert One" - the disastrous attempt to rescue US hostages in Iran - was the campaign killer for incumbent Jimmy Carter. He never recovered.

12 years later:
In spring 1992 - aftermath of the first Rodney King verdict; the LA riots - incumbent Poppy Bush went on TV to try to calm things - seen as out of touch with everyday people in the midst of a recession. He never recovered.

12 years later:
Spring 2004 - the incumbent is Poppy's boy - those pictures of torture and humilation NOT going away no matter what spin is put on them. As NY political boss William M. Tweed used to say about his constituents re illustrator Thomas Nast "...maybe they can't read, but dammit, they can see pictures..."

Maybe, just maybe - this Iraq fiasco will kill it all for *'s re-election bid. It's now up to Kerry and the Dems to take the knife and hand it to * to commit hara-kiri.


:kick:

The Republican Poster Boy William Kristol called the election for Kerry as well. He stated that there wass simply a history of events that Kerry would be able to make a very big case against Bush with, taking the lying about WMD's and using bogus evidence to make the case for war, to the coverup of the abuses oon Iraqi prisoners and the lack of "knowledge" about the abuses by the administration to make the case that the Bush administration simply wanted to go to war with Iraq from the start and ever even bothered with getting good intelligence both before and after the invasion.

AS long as Kerry keeps his hand hidden and keeps a good poker face, he has avery good chance of exposing the incompetance of the Bush administration at the best time, the weeks before the election, when the administration will not have the time to put togetther a counter offensive against the case Kerry will make.

The latest polls are indicating that support for Bush is finally starting to soften up in his two strongholds. In the south, and aong Republican women.