Anyone see this latest poll

But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their votes; Kerry gets 39%.

Are they sampling more Republicans? The base is registered voters (not likley voters), so it can't be liklihood of voting. Is the Nader factor?

the poll is commissioned by Investor's Business Daily.
Doh.

...I see a lot of stock being placed on polls here in DU. Here are some things to keep in mind about polls.


Polls may look convincing yet be completely worthless:

- Public opinion is subjective and can change rapidly.
- Consequently, polls sometimes produce conflicting or meaningless results, even when they are carefully written and presented by professional interviewers to scientifically chosen samples.
- Pollsters can also set up surveys that deliberately shade the truth.


Here’s the link for more on this:

http://www.sfasu.edu/polisci/Abel/PollEvaluation.html

... been posting on the Gallup numbers. They both are likely accurate for what they are. It's how they are being portrayed that's the issue.

Here's the IBD story (http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?v=5/11).

Read through it. BOY, that's not biased reporting, huh?

- "Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%... In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race." (That's the "increase" they're talking about? 1%?! Possibly 0.1% with rounding off?)
- "While Bush dominates among the early deciders (58% to 37%), Kerry is gaining among more recent deciders (70% to 24%)." (Doesn't that mean Bush just keeps the staunch Republicans, but Kerry is attracting the undecideds by a vast majority?)
- "Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry" (DUH!)
- "Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies." (aren't all three of these basically a different measures of the same thing? That Republicans automatically vote Repub, while Dems and independents actually think about their votes?)
- "Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are "somewhat satisfied." (SO. Maybe the Repubs are satisfied with Kerry as a choice, too? A meaningless poll question painted to look good for Bush)
- Then there's this: "Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, also rose - from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a gain of 4.5%. " (Fuzzy math, I guess)

Look at the graphic in the article. Bush's "Presidential Leadership Index" (whatever that is) is still on a steep decline, in the big picture. One-poll bumps mean nothing in the big picture. The Gallup poll of yesterday means a lot because it is a continued decline after the last poll, and it confirms the overall trend of all of their polls of the last several months; a trend that is replicated in every other poll, including this IBD/TIPP poll.

Of course, the reporting on yesterday's CNN/Gallup results has been biased as well. Funny how a statistically meaningless change is always reported as "Bush increasing his lead" when it's in his favor, and always "Bush stays even despite problems" when it's not.

But either way, the results are still bad for Bush.

To paraphrase in horse racing terms, "Just when you think he will be an 'also ran,' he comes from behind to win."
In the article titled "The election is Kerry's to lose," Zogby said "Kerry knows when his homework is due."
www.zogby.com
Polls give us the trend, but the only poll that really counts is the one on election day.

I like that.

And, even tho I was (maybe still am, a bit) suspicious of the early Kerry primary wins - point is, he came out on top. Dean even makes the point of Kerry being a "strong closer."

Never considered I'd draw confidence from the early Kerry wins in our primaries, as much as it frustrated me at the time, but now I do derive confidence from the fact he came from being written off as nominee to winning.

I am confident in Kerry's ability to kick bush's ass. I guess that's what I'm trying to say. And it felt good to say it.

:D

side almost daily. No matter what your beliefs, in the bible you can find some words (when taken out of context as most bible quoters do)that support your beliefs.

These days you can find a poll that shows Bush losing ground and polls showing Bush gaining ground. In one night while watching the cable news shows I saw on Scarborough a debate on why Bush is beating Kerry and later on a CNN news show, why Bush is losing support. Now which is it?

"...Bush gaining ground."

That's because we are at a point in Bush's popularity where he is crossing the threshold where more people disapprove than approve of him, the threshold where Kerry and he are converging with regards to voter preference.

As such, some polls will have some good signs for him, and some (often the same) will have some bad signs for him.

The key point, however, is that he is (and has been for most of his presidency) experiencing a steep decline in popularity. Each new series of polls only confirms that trend is continuing.
(http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm)

ON EDIT:
A clear demonstration of this very consistent trend is in the following graphic of Gallup Approval & Disapproval ratings for Bush. Note that the current levels are 46% approval, 51% disapproval; the lines have crossed (the graph only goes up to October 2003):

In todays IBD poll Kerry is now ahead:

IBD/TIPP (5/12-18) 43% 42% Kerry +1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

This article was published on 5/11 - the poll was done 5/2-5/8.

----------
Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq

Tue May 11,10:45 AM ET

Investor'S Business Daily

Despite the Iraq (news - web sites) prison scandal that has rocked the Bush administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.

The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.
---------------

Current issue of same poll has KERRY up by one point (see post #9).

Guess the torture scandal (and a general rising awareness of the regime's character) IS having an effect.

Edit: Ack! I'm editing my prior edit. The results of the poll cited in this thread are over a week old, and the current results from the same poll show a weaker bush, and a stonger Kerry.

no more edits - :D