Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq

Despite the Iraq (news - web sites) prison scandal that has rocked the Bush administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.

The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.

In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race.

In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to 40%.

But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their votes; Kerry gets 39%

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1471&u=/ibd/20040511/bs_ibd_ibd/2004511feature&printer=1

Again, what alternate universe do I live in? How is he widening the lead?

the majority of the people polled knew diddly about the prison scandal. Most people didn't start paying attention until after Rumsfeld testified. That was May 7th.

It would be hogwash in any case be cause it is Invester's Business Daily.

The CNN poll showing Bush going from even with Kerry among RVs to losing by 6 was done May 7-9. We'll have to see what happens in other polls this week.

Is that a magazine? I wonder if they only polled their subscribers? I would think most readers of something called "Investor's Business Daily" would love Bushy's pro-BigMoney policies.

:bounce:

The small variations in these polls are meaningless. It's a tie right now, which is bad for Bush. If I remember correctly, in the last poll published before the 1980 election, Carter was leading Reagan. It's gonna all depend on how swing voters decide late in the race. If things keep up the way they are, Kerry should do quite well.

Bush, Kerry Nearly Even in Poll on Iraq

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=4&u=/ap/20040511/ap_on_el_pr/iraq_poll

Investor's Business Daily or CNN-USA Today. It's not like CNN or Gannett are on the bleading left.

awhile. The TIPP poll included days when it wasn't nearly as publicized.

Hare and the Tortoise. He likes those come-from-behind stories. :eyes: The only problem is that Bush is a Jackal, who likes to toy with his prey, not an innocent but inexperienced Hare.

Geeze, a poll over that long a time with this much happening is completely useless. Imagine them calling all Democrats in the first half, and all Republicans in the second half, as the story escalated. The Republicans wouldn't accurately reflect how the average person received this story.

It's bad polling and nonsense. I'm not against polls, nor do I think it impossible that Bush could still be leading (it takes time for people to change their opinions), but this poll is a waste of bytes.

3-Way Race:
Bush, 49%
Kerry, 44%
Nader, 7%

2-Way Race:
Bush, 54%
Kerry, 46%

Note that something like 5 points of the Nader vote are always given to Bush. That assures "ammo" for Naderites and Conservatives alike who deny that most Nader voters are liberal/progressive/radical. (The "They-Wouldn't-Have-Voted-For-Gore-Anyway" Effect.)

Global warming is Junk Science, but polling is Science Moft Rigourous.

--bkl

advertising, leader image, and support for Iraq.

OK - these do not seem to exist with such high numbers in other polls.

I'll grant you we are down to only 1.5 million jobs lost under Bush - and 5 more months (including Sept) will be known by election - we may have a Bush break-even - no jobs lost and no jobs created during presidency despite the 3 year Boom (since 11/01) - which with media help can be sold as a "positive" result of tax cuts.

But all other pollesters saw the Bush campaigning and heavy advertising in the Midwest and key swing states as ONLY kicking up Kerry's negatives - this fellow sees an actual swing to Bush - interesting?

Now the idea that most Americans (80%) see Bush as a resolute leader, so as Iraq gets worse he gets better poll results - is a little silly - perhaps resolute should be stubborn?

And an apple pie desire by folks for support for U.S. military action in Iraq (stable at 57%) does not explain the shift in their poll results.

This fellow is trying to sell folks not blaming Bush directly - a handful of people were responsible for the prison incidents and folks accepted Bush's apology.

Seems a lot like a Fox Cable News report!

:-)