Nader's Ballot Access Requirements

Of the battleground states, it appears that Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Tennessee are the biggest slamdunks for Nader. Missouri doesn't look too tough either.

What about the rest of them? I think Florida ain't gonna happen.

Courtesy of votenader.com:

AL: 5,000 signatures by 8/31/04.
AK: 2,878 signatures by 8/4/04.
AZ: about 14,694 signatures by 6/9/04.
AR: 1,000 signatures by 8/2/04.
CA: 153,805 signatures by 8/6/04.
CO: No signatures needed. Submit form and $500 fee by early June.
CT: 7,500 signatures by 8/1/04.
DE: 5,205 signatures by 7/15/04.
DC: 3,600 signatures by 8/17/04.
FL: 94,000 signatures by 7/15/04.
GA: 38,567 signatures by 7/13/04.
HI: 3,677 signatures by 9/3/04.
ID: 5,016 signatures by 8/24/04.
IL: 25,000 signatures by 6/14/04.
IN: 29,552 signatures by 6/30/04.
IA: 1,500 signatures total, from at least 10 different counties, by 8/13/04.
KS: 5,000 signatures by 8/2/04.
KY: 5,000 signatures by 9/7/04.
LA: No signatures required. Submit form and pay $500 fee.
ME: 4,000 total signatures by 8/15/04. Signatures must be verified by individual counties or towns.
MD: 28,000 signatures by 8/2/04. However, Maryland Nader 2004 is attempting to be recognized as a political party, which would reduce this number to 10,000.
MA: 10,000 signatures by 8/31/04. Signatures must be verified by individual towns by 8/3/04.
MI: 30,000 signatures by 7/15/04. At least half of the congressional districts must have 100 signatures each.
MN: 1,710 signatures by 9/14/04.
MS: 1,000 signatures by 9/3/04.
MO: 10,000 signatures by 7/15/04. Also must identify one delegate from each congressional district.
MT: 1,489 signatures by 8/18/04.
NE: 2,500 signatures by 8/24/04.
NV: 5,015 signatures by 7/9/04.
NH: 3,000 signatures by 6/2/04. At least 1,500 signatures must come from each of the two congressional districts.
NJ: 800 signatures by 6/8/04.
NM: 14,527 signatures by 9/7/04.
NY: 15,000 signatures by 8/10/04. At least 16 congressional districts must be represented by at least 100 signatures. Petition drive cannot begin until 7/6/04.
NC: Not listed at Nader's website, possibly because he may have already failed? NC Board of Elections says he needs (needed?) 2% of registered voters by what looks like 5/7/04. If true, this comes out to over 100,000 signatures.
ND: 4,000 signatures by 10/3/04.
OH: 5,000 signatures by 8/19/04.
OK: 37,027 signatures by 7/15/04.
OR: 15,306 signatures by 7/2/04. First attempt FAILED- 1,000 signatures at a petition assembly on 4/5/04.
PA: 25,697 signatures by 8/2/04.
RI: 1,000 signatures by 9/3/04.
SC: 10,000 signatures by 7/15/04.
SD: 3,346 signatures by 8/3/04.
TN: 275 signatures by 8/19/04.
TX: FAILED- Needed 65,000 signatures by 5/10/04. Signatures must come from people who did not vote in either major party primary.
UT: 1,000 signatures by 9/2/04.
VT: 1,000 signatures by 9/2/04.
VA: 10,000 signatures by 8/20/04. Must have at least 400 signatures from each congressional district.
WA: 200 signatures from a nominating convention, by 7/5/04.
WV: 12,962 signatures by 8/1/04.
WI: 2,000 signatures by 9/7/04. Cannot begin petition drive until 8/1/04.
WY: 3,643 signatures by 8/23/04.

Any thoughts?

-MR

Wyoming, Wisconsin, Washington (only 200!!)RI, Utah, TN, Ark, Iowa for example, but others will be very tough--like Texas where he has already failed and even Oregon may be difficult--Michigan too. But some states where he was a big factor in '00: Wi, Ia, Wa, and MN. should be easy for him.

...could be very tough. Can Nader identify at least one delegate in every congressional district in Missouri? 400 signers in each district in Virginia?

with only a $500 filing fee and no sigs needed.

Nader must NOT get on the ballot in OH, WI, MN and MO. He likely will fuck it up for Kerry if he does.

...if we're competitive in LA and CO. If Bush only ekes out victories in those two states, Kerry wins.

-MR

Most of those signature requirements he will definitely reach. I doubt Florida though.

...while Nader got 5.25%. We're a perfect example of how the Nader wedge can skew the numbers (granted, not all of those votes would have gone to Al in the first place; shit, I almost broke for Nader myself before I realized it was going to be close, and began to fear my judgment before the Final Arbiter....) :)

Doesn't matter = if that state is won by the non-obvious candidate, it will be a 350+ electoral college blowout anyway.

All of the following assumes no large scale help by the Republicans.




AZ: about 14,694 signatures by 6/9/04.

- 45,645 votes in 2000. Given that he needs 1/3 of his 2000 voters and the due date is relatively early, the chances are probably pretty small.

AR: 1,000 signatures by 8/2/04.

- 13,421 votes in 2000. He only needs 1/13 of his 2000 voters, and the due date is relatively late :(. He probably makes Arkansas.

CO: No signatures needed. Submit form and $500 fee by early June.

- Unfortunately, his campaign has $500...

FL: 94,000 signatures by 7/15/04.

- 97,488 votes in 2000. Not likely.

IA: 1,500 signatures total, from at least 10 different counties, by 8/13/04.

29,374 votes in 2000. He needs a relatively small proportion of his 2000 voters. Iowa has many more than 10 counties, but I would guess that his voters are concentrated in counties with cities. Given the late due date, he probably has a good Iowa.

LA: No signatures required. Submit form and pay $500 fee.

- Unfortunately, his campaign has $500...

ME: 4,000 total signatures by 8/15/04. Signatures must be verified by individual counties or towns.

- 37,127 votes in 2000. I fear he will make the Maine ballot. ~1/10 of his 2000 votes and late date.

MI: 30,000 signatures by 7/15/04. At least half of the congressional districts must have 100 signatures each.

- 84,165 votes in 2000. The sheer numers and medium due date make it not certain, but unfortunately quite possible.

MN: 1,710 signatures by 9/14/04.

- 126,696 votes in 2000. He has probably already made the Minnesota ballot :(.

MO: 10,000 signatures by 7/15/04. Also must identify one delegate from each congressional district.

- 38,515 votes in 2000. 1/4 of his 2000 voters by a mediumish date is possible. Given that Missouri has 9 congressional districts, if he can find 10,000 signers, he can probably find 9 delegates :(.

NV: 5,015 signatures by 7/9/04.

- 15,008 votes in 2000. 1/3 of his voters, by a medium/early date. I would guess that Nadir voters are concentrated in Las Vegas, so that might make it easier.

NH: 3,000 signatures by 6/2/04. At least 1,500 signatures must come from each of the two congressional districts.

- 22,198 votes in 2000. Hopefully not. The due date is very early and the 2 congressional districts requirement probably raises it, practically, to at least 3,500 or 4000 signatures.

NM: 14,527 signatures by 9/7/04.

- 21,251 votes in 2000. 2/3 of his 2000 voters are unlikely, but the date is too late for my liking.

OH: 5,000 signatures by 8/19/04.

- 117,857 votes in 2000. He will most likely make Ohio.... :(

OR: 15,306 signatures by 7/2/04. First attempt FAILED- 1,000 signatures at a petition assembly on 4/5/04.

- 77,357 votes in 2000. He probably has a decent/good chance at Oregon. The failure at first is heartening, but not as heartening as I would like.

PA: 25,697 signatures by 8/2/04.

- 103,392 votes in 2000. Date is pretty late, 1/4 of 2000 voters... If he has good organization, he can pull off Pennsylvania :(.

WA: 200 signatures from a nominating convention, by 7/5/04.

103,002 votes in 2000. Unfortunately, this one is a lock for Ralph... On the bright side, Gore won by 5.5%, despite Nadir taking 4% in 2000.

WV: 12,962 signatures by 8/1/04.

- 10,680 votes in 2000. That's MORE VOTES than he got in 2000. Not at all likely.

WI: 2,000 signatures by 9/7/04. Cannot begin petition drive until 8/1/04.

- 94,070 votes in 2000. 2000 signatures is a very small number. Our best hope is that by that late a date (August), the reality of the election will have set in to people's heads.

and is currently launching a lawsuit to get on the ballot in TX? Whether he's getting 6% in national polls or not, it won't matter one bit if he can't get on a ballot.

Current Number of State Ballots Nader is On: 0
Current Number of State Ballots Nader is Not On: 50

Nader filed suit (tantrum) in Texas to get the requirements overturned. Hopefully he will spend thousands of dollars and even if he wins, it's Texas and nobody cares how many votes he gets in Texas. It is very unlikely he will influence the electoral count here. The important thing is that we are hitting him where it hurts, in the purse.