A quiet plea for steadiness in the storm

The newest poll numbers for Bush - both official and unofficial - are very good news for Kerry, especially since he is doing a run-silent-run-deep campaign at this point. For what it's worth, I agree with that strategy; if Kerry kicked into full campaign mode tomorrow and went blow for blow with Bush, he'd be out of cash by July. As of now, he has overtaken Bush in the polls by letting events campaign for him, has weighed in ("Iraq war a failure") with effect when necessary, and will have the necessary funds down the stretch.

But that's not why I'm writing.

Bush will come back in the polls, either because the media will boost him, or because polls are so easily skewed and a close race pays the bills for a lot of whore-types, or for a lot of reasons. But it'll happen. Bank it.

Right now, there's a lot of "Woo Hoo!!" about the poll numbers, and I am woo-hooing right along with you. But I am refraining from too much celebrating, because it's gonna change.

So...calm in the storm is my advice. We have somewhere around 150 days to go in this thing. Just my 2 cents.

at a time like this! We've got Bush polling in the 30s, and we're now pushing for the 20s!. So your either with us or against us. Go clear brush if you don't want to join us.

As a BOSOX fan I've learned to be forever optimistic.

But I am refraining from too much celebrating, because it's gonna change.

There's quite a distance yet to go. Change will follow change will follow change.

Me? I drink. :)

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* will probably get some bounce, but I can't help but think that things are unravelling too much out of the Rethugs' and their media lackeys' control. You are very correct that Kerry's "run silent, run deep" tack is very clever.

"Kerry has been unable to connect with the voters or find his message." I hear this daily on the local CBS affiliate radio station here in LA. Actually, I think it's brilliant - like a top boxer toying with an opponent who is using up every ounce of energy flailing around, delivering punches into the air that miss the mark wildly. I hope in round two, Kerry delivers a couple of right-on-target knock-out punches that put this contest away.

I agree

-P

run to November.

I can understand so well why we all need to feel that the W.H. will return to being the people's house. BUT, I have gotten VERY FRUSTRATED hearing the sort of "chicken little" frenzy about second-guessing Kerry at EVERY tiny turn, or just wailing in the wind.

We need to keep calm and strategically focused on the task ahead, and take a page out of the playbooks of some priceless leaders in our recent history,e.g. the 2 Kennedy brothers, Martin Luther King, Adlai Stevenson, Dag Hammerskjold, Patton and so on ... It's the kind of reassuring feeling I get when I think Kerry/Clark (just IMHO).

I've yet to see a lot of excitment behind these numbers.

This is a time to be energized and excited. Of course polls will change and we have many months before the election but Kerryhas done a great job so far. I'm happy for him.

Kerry challenged Bush to a series of debates on the issues. Bush has been silent on this challenge. This is the one thing I think Kerry should be agressively making some noise about, right now. Kerry is holding some good cards, and the lower Bush goes in the polls, the more leverage Kerry has on the the structure of the debates and how many there will be. He should be calling Bush out.

The convention will introduce most Americans to John Kerry. The debates will spotlight Kerry and Bush on the same stage.

After the debates...the real "woo hoo-ing" can begin!

While certainly polls will continue to fluctuate, something has happened in the past week that I think is important: conservatives are starting to criticize Bush. From George Will to Andrew Sullivan to certain members of congress, the fact that the admin's usual supporters in both the media and congress are starting to express doubts is not something we've seen before.

That could also turn around, of course, but I think that's going to require a miracle in Iraq and/or major changes in/by the administration. We'll see.

Because the war is a disaster, & everyone knows it.

Some are now telling the truth, some are still lying, but some have gone silent.

Have you noticed there are fewer right wing shills out there?

we've still got a long road ahead. The presidancy will be a sweet victory, but it is only the start...

in Semptember. I agree with you because there is still a lot of time to go and the numbers can change all the time. Back in 1992 Perot was beating both Bush and Clinton in the polls just as an example of how polls mean nothing right now.

is an excuse to redouble our efforts.

mode of the Kerry campaign doesn't get it for me anymore. The days of sitting back and waiting for the implosion to occur should come to an end, that strategy is worn out at this point. Kerry should be thundering away at bush* and dismantling the cabal everyday in a calm, reasoned manner that stresses any differences they may have. I think his campaign thus far has been wimpy and his "vote for me, I'm alot like bush*, but only better" routine is getting really stale.

but at this point, with as much stinkie as whoosh* has on him .. lots of folks are going to be looking for some sweet clean air to breathe. Be strong, not pushy, *right now*. But stay flexible.

I KNOW NOTHING about winning elections.. proven in another DU thread. Just my gut talking here ..

wasting all of our resources now being loud and pugnacious will get us a bump in the polls now, but it will not win us the presidency, for that we need a bump in the polls (or resounding victory) in Nov.

JK needs to build a team, get state offices open and get some cash in hand. He is doing fine and will be ready this fall

better to let the country stay focused on the mess o'potamia and get your act ready for the road while the spotlight is on scandals

(hope hope)

Oh the irony!! <snarf>

I can't wait to watch people like you get turned to ash by what is coming at you in the general election. You're pathetic, unable to recognize good press and interesting allies when you see them, and you are going to get laid waste. Win or lose, you are in for a rough road, and I'm going to laugh my ass off watching you. Pathetic. Totally pathetic. --Will Pitt

You don't seem to be half the warrior you expected fellow Deanies to be if our man got it.

No surprise here.

Julie

let's see, "good press" Kerry throwing his medals over a fence or his voting record? "interesting allies" John McCain or John Warner.

Gee, I miss all those warm and fuzzy little posts we used to get on a regular basis telling us how pathetic we are and how we will be laid waste if we don't tow the DLC line. Yep, those were the days.

Nice post JL.

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but that would be a waste of breath.

You should provide the context for that quote. Nah, that'd ruin your point.

We have a long way to go. I have no doubt that the Bush campaign still has some rabbits to pull out of the proverbial hat.

I also have no doubt that Bush is going down. If Kerry runs a good campaign, it's his.

taking over the leadership role. He has the opportunity, he has to take it.

Bush isn't going to give it to him.

...eleciton. You beat expectations.

Bush runs on really low expectations.

I agee with Kerry's strategy too. You don't want to be up by 40 points now, because if Bush closes 5 points, it will be portrayed as Bush closing rapidly, and then the story will be Bush is closing, and not that Bush is losing by 35 points.

So, silent and deep today, and then pulling away from Bush out in late October is the way to go.

Run silent run deep has me so convulsed with laughter I can barely type.That French guy, Quisling, should have made that HIS defense...I was not colluding I was running silently and deeply....

I do not want a candidate who allows the most heinous of administrations in american history a free pass because he hasnt the money to speak out...what the hell does that mean anyway? Press conferences are free, one doesnt need full page ads in every major newspaper to make a point. Apologising for his votes wouldnt cost Kerry a penny and just might persuade folks to take him more seriously as well.

For three years the Democratic Party, with a few notable exceptions, has had its opposition head up its opposition ass, thats what cost it the mid term elections and that is what convinces many that, should Kerry win the election, it wont make a damn bit of difference.

If you search around you find articles of Kerry all over the place:

Kerry assails Bush on Iraq Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22443-2004May12.html

Kerry calls the Iraq War a Failure

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20807-2004May12.html

Don't Rush trials for Iraqi Prisoner Abuse

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/nationworld/orl-aseckerry13051304m ...

He is bashing Bush and winning in the polls.

If anything the whore press is getting to their push point of picking up the Repuke line that Kerry is trying to take advantage of tragedy for political gain.

Ok, yes, he is doing historically very well and usually if your beating an incumbent this early in the game you got it made.

Think about it real hard. The scandal stuff will blow over. The Repukes control the the legislature and the courts and push the whore media around the room like a cheap bully on a schoolyard does to the kid who eats paste. Come on someone in the Administration committed treason and outed a CIA official and people out there in the world most of them do NOT even know.

Also, Kerry is ahead in the polls against an incumbent during a time of war before the convention. That does not suck, period.

However, here comes my kick in the gut. We are never going to get a huge lead.

The country is idealogically divided. There are at least 40% of the people in this country that could watch Bush blow the brains out of an American soldier on live tv and piss on the corpse that would still vote for the shrub. It is that bad. Oh yeah it ain't just the South the margins especially in a handfull of states are much closer than the solid West without the coast.

It is going to be closer than we want. He will never lead in the polls by huge comfy amounts. He is doing well against an incumbent at this point of the game and this does bode well.

What should Kerry be doing that he is not?

Many will disagree but he cannot go cut and run just yet. The Repukes would murder him on it. But he can start talking about a real exit strategy. He can talk about setting reasonable goals, achieving them and then getting the f*ck out.

He can give people the light at the end of the tunnel they want.

He has been so articulate and wordy about other positions but not Israel? Don't get caught in the "I can out-Zion you" contest with the Repukes. Talk about going back to the Clinton policies of engagement and getting everyone involved in the peace process again.

Come on throw the base some bones you have to get out the vote Kerry on election day.

http://www.mnc.net/norway/quisling.htm

"Quisling, Vidkun (1887-1945), Norwegian politician, whose collaboration with the Nazis...during World War II (1939-1945) made his name synonymous with traitor. In the 1930s he found the Nationa Union, a Fascist party that received subsidies from Germany... "