GENext poll (also in Newsweek)Bad news 4 George

Live Vote

* Percentages may not total to 100% for each question due to non-responses

How closely are you following the presidential race? * 18842 web responses

RESPONSES WEB GENEXT POLL

Very closely 64% 25%
Somewhat closely 29% 45%
Not too closely 5% 21%
Not closely at all 2% 9%

Do you approve, dissaprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? * 18877 web responses

RESPONSES WEB GENEXT POLL

Strongly approve 26% 25%
Somewhat approve 9% 10%
Lean toward approval 3% 12%
Still have mixed feelings 3% 1%
Lean toward disapproval 2% 19%
Somewhat disapprove 4% 8%
Strongly disapprove 54% 25%

If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? * 18840 web responses

RESPONSES WEB GENEXT POLL

George W. Bush, the Republican 38% 42%
John Kerry, the Democrat 59% 45%
Ralph Nader, the independent 3% 11%

Does it matter who wins the presidential election this year? * 18895 web responses

RESPONSES WEB GENEXT POLL

Yes, it matters a little 7% 10%
Yes, it matters a lot 91% 90%
No, it doesn't matter 2%

And it is interesting how there is a definate trend towards not approving of Bush's administration. Bodes well for Kerry, imho.

Does it matter who wins the presidential election this year?

Yes, it matters a little 7% 10%
Yes, it matters a lot 91% 90%
No, it doesn't matter 2%

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That's a good sign for Kerry. Incumbents tend to draw from those who are content and those who are ambivalent (so they stick with what they know, like toilet paper). Challengers tend to draw from those who think it's very, very important (because they're pissed off about the status quo).

In general, it's also a good sign for the nation, since it suggests the "not a dime's worth of difference" red herring that (strategically) drives down turnout is losing traction. I want a highly motivated electorate for every election, even when we have incumbency and are threatened by it. It's a healthy sign for a democracy.

To Lefty Pragmatist,
I think you're confusing the question "Is this election important?" with "Is the country heading in the right direction?" The results of the former are neither good nor bad for Kerry or Bush: they merely gauge the apathy of the voters. Both Bush's and Kerry's partisans should feel this election is important: righties afraid of a Kerry win, and lefties afraid of a Bush win.
The "right direction" question is exactly to what your first paragraph should refer: those who are worried about the direction of the country generally go for the challenger.
I readily agree with your second paragraph. It's good for our democracy that voters believe that their vote matters, and that voters aren't just "going through the motions."