Something interesting I noticed in the last three polls

posted on http://www.pollingreport.com

Kerry's lead is exactly the same with and without Nader.

Just thought I'd pass that along. :)

Nader seems to be taking a few points from each now, rather than 6 or 7 just from Kerry. Wonder what it means?

be turning to Nader as a protest?

...when I was visiting my folks. Their area is full of Nixonian "silent majority" types, conservative to the core. There were more than a few who told me they were planning to vote for Nader because Bush was a moron. These are old folks who have never voted for a Democrat and would probably have their arms fall off if they tried to.

So yes, there will be a lot of GOP votes going to Nader, especially since he's now been picked up by the Reform Party. There will be far fewer people to the left voting for him, because the stakes are just too damned high this time.

In 2000, 90% of Nader preferers (and there were lot -- almost 25% of voters liked Nader more than Bush and Gore) ended up voting for someone else. For 95% of them it was Gore.

Whether someone says they'll vote for Nader at any given time correlates to two factors, I believe: (1) whether they perceive the race is close (for those who vote strategically), or (2) whether they wouldn't vote at all if Nader weren't in the race.

I think people remember 2000, and will always feel this race is close, no matter what the polls say. Furthermore, the race IS close right now. Nobody feels like Kerry is a lock, whereas many people probably thought Gore was going to win even when the polls showed that Bush was in the lead.

So, the only people voting for Nader in the polls now are people who wouldn't vote at all if not for Nader. So they won't affect that the Bush v Kerry number at all.