Bans on gay marriage on state ballots could benefit Bush

Bans on state ballots could benefit Bush
Conservatives would gain most from get-out-the-vote campaign

Marc Sandalow, Washington Bureau Chief
Monday, May 17, 2004

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Washington -- Whether or not President Bush ever utters the words "same-sex marriage,'' strategists from both parties believe the topic is a potent weapon that could contribute significantly to his re-election.

It hardly matters that most voters say the issue will not be a factor in whom they support, or that Bush and Sen. John Kerry, his Democratic rival, oppose the sorts of marriages that begin today in Massachusetts.

With as many as 14 states placing same-sex marriage bans on their ballot this November, some strategists believe hundreds of thousands of voters who might otherwise have stayed home will show up at the polls. And they expect those voters -- many of them religious conservatives -- to vote overwhelmingly for Bush.

"You don't have to squint very hard to see that if this is on the ballot in November, this will be a huge get-out-the-vote boost for conservatives and Republicans,'' said Jeff Wunrow, executive director of PROMO, a gay rights group in Missouri, where the Republican legislature placed a constitutional ban Friday on gay marriages on the November ballot.


more... http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/05/17/MNGMO6ML0V1.DTL

Interesting. Do you think that this will really be an issue, and that the Republicans will make sure they get out and vote because of this? Will they still vote for bushie. I know the ultra conservatives will, but the moderates seem to be pretty fed up with him, or at least that is what the polls seem to show. What do you think?

they are desperate

While Kerry gets more and more to jump, Bush has to keep the base
happy

You tell me what campaign is doing well ok

even make it to the November election.

<http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4999734>

Be sure to read the memos with links in a box. One for the legal determination by WH lawyers and one by Powell.

"The pre-election polls were all off by over 20 points because we didn't anticipate the
depth of the feelings against gays. There must have been tens of thousands who
came out of the woodwork to vote for Bush, and somehow our pollsters missed them all."

"The exit polls are not available due to 'bad data'. The data is sooo bad, we couldn't
possibly show it to you. In fact, it's so bad that we're just going to give up on the whole
idea of exit polling, because it's just too unreliable."

It is somewhat of a worry. Radicals on both sides will vote this issue hard, but they're already voting and nothing is going to change their affiliation.

However, the center has a non-trivial population of Christian moderates who have sympathy for Dem prairie populism but who are balls-to-the-wall against Gay marriage. So to speak.

The states with more of those "conflicted Christians" also tend to be the purple.

So gay marriage is a WMD the GOP will use again and again, and it's a concern. But hopefully, the concussion will be lessened by months of end-of-the-world declarations from our bigoted friends on the other side of the aisle. In the end, Americans are pretty tolerant of your behavior as long as it doesn't raise their taxes or jam up traffic. Gay marriage does neither. Let's trust our citizenry a little on this one.