Does anybody here live in Wisconsin

Tell us about the Badget Poll. It is the only poll that has Bush ahead in that state, and by double digits. Even the Rasmussen poll has Kerry ahead, and they had him ahead by double digits. Kerry has been ahead in Wisconsin until the first Badger poll came out, and that had BUsh ahead in double digits. When Kerry started polling in double digits in Wisconsin, the Badger polls seems to immediately do a poll to refute any poll that shows Kery ahead.

Got the skinny on this poll?

I remember reading somewhere that it is a Freeper poll, not that you don't know that, but I think it is. Sorry; I'll try to find a link for
you. . .

I'm not sure why - perhaps they identify a higher number of Repubs as likely voters.

They did the polls for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and I do not know the nature of that paper. Perhaps they are a more conservative leaning paper. But I don not know. Only been to Wisconsin once and didnt stop to read a paper.

sponsored by the Madison Capitol Times which is a liberal newspaper which always supports democrats and the Milwaukee Sentinel-Journal which is considered an Independent newspaper.

also, the poll is conducted by the UW Wisconsin Survey Center and here are their last two surveys. The most recent one is on Feingold re-election. 50% would vote to re-elect Feingold, 19% say they want someone else.

http://www.madison.com/captimes/badger/74513.php

Here is the survey which has Bush ahead by 12-points, but note it is an old poll from last month.

http://www.madison.com/captimes/badger/73383.php

If you look at all of the Wisconsin polls, every other poll has had Kerry ahead.

Bush 50% Kerry 38% Nader 6% Badger Poll 4/20-28/04 4% other 1%

Bush 42% Kerry 50% other 3% Rasmussen Research 4/28/04 4.5%
Bush 41% Kerry 45% Nader 8%

Bush 40% Kerry 49% Nader 2% Lake Snell Perry & Assoc. 4/25-27/04 4.9%

Bush 42% Kerry 49% Nader 7% WPR / St. Norbert 4/14-21/04 5%

Bush 49% Kerry 45% other 2% Badger Poll 3/23-31/04 4%

Bush 47% Kerry 41% Nader 5%

Bush 43% Kerry 46% Nader 4% American Research Group 3/23-25

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Except for the Badger poll, and even in other local Wisconsin polls, Kerry has been considerably ahead.

And the Rasmussen and Lake Snell & Perry polls coincide with when the Badger poll was done. And Rasmussen's even a Repub himself.

My guess is this. Even though the poll is done for a Madison Liberal paper (and believe me the Capital Times are, I wish they'd deliver same day to me up here in Oshkosh), there are a lot of rural areas right around Madison and I am thinking they call mostly out of the city to try to "balance" the voters out.

Look Kerry has Madison and Milwaukee in a walk, no issues there. But the paper's polling group is probably thinking they need to pull an Appleton Post Crescent, i.e. if you don't have enough difference on views, fish for some.

So in their attempts to try to get people of all political persuasion in the poll they call the rural areas which are likely solidly Bush even though Republicans have attempted to slaughter the family farmer for years.

To me that's the only way Bush is polling ahead of Kerry. Even in Oshkosh-Appleton-Green Bay which is really the only swing area in WI, it seems like everyone's leaning Kerry. GB is more of a question than the other two, but I think Bush has worn out his welcome.

In La Crosse which may have gone for Bush in the past, it looks as if it will go for Kerry.

In fact the only cities I see swinging Republican are Sheboygan and Fond Du Lac. And those are Republican strong holds from what I can tell.

Rp

Thanks...

To me this still sort of validates my idea that when republicans see that a candidate is polling way above Bush, they hire someone to do a poll in order to show Bush is not doing so poorly, in order to effect effect public image, and this frequently has an effect on the undecided. There tends to be a tendency in Social Psychology which states that you cab only change the mind of people who have not made a decision, and also, of herd mentality, which indicated that most people will want to support a person who seems most likely to win. Wisconsin is an important state, and so Bush is very very interested in trying to look like he can win a race in that state, at least among the undecided. This has happened in a number of states. They clue to me lies in the fact that the compnies that they hire to do the polls are not the same ones that have don other polls, like ARG, or Zogby, but someone like Mason Dixon, Elway, or this Badger Poll.

Kerry was doing very well in both Oregon and Washington State IN Oregon in ppolls like Research 2000, done 5/8 -5/14 Kerry does 50 percent to Bush's 46 percent in a poll with a 4 percent MoE.

Right after this polls dates are over, Riley Research Associates does a poll showing Kerry with 39 percent and Bush with 44 percent in a polls done 5/5-5/10. And if you go back and look at all of the past polls n that state, Oregon. you see:


Bush 44% Kerry 39% other 6% Riley Research Assoc. 5/5-10/04 3.51%
Bush 46% Kerry 50% other Research 2000 5/6-8, 10/04 4%
Bush 45% Kerry 47% Nader 3%
Bush Kerry 68%
Kucinich 18% Nader
Bush 46% Kerry 48% other American Research Group 5/3-5/04 4%
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Nader 5%
Bush 46% Kerry 48% other Research 2000 4/25-29/04 4%
Bush 45% Kerry 46% other 6% Rasmussen Research 4/25/04 4.5%
Bush 43% Kerry 43% Nader 8%
Bush 47% Kerry 45% Nader 1% Univ. of Oregon 3/19-4/7/04 4.7%
Bush 40% Kerry 45% Nader 5% Tim Hibbitts 3/4/04 4.5%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Virtually every poll in this state show Kerry in the lead, but because of the results of this latest Riley and Associated poll, they have given Oregon a Pink, leaning towards Bush rating.

Which I find most amusing


If you look at Washinton State, which early on was a Kerry given, you have almost no polls with Bush in the lead.

Same thing in California, where Kerry had double digit leads against Bush until one recent poll by SUSA. for Several tlevision outlets.

But I greatly distrust local media outlets, as a local university in my state whose head is the local mayor who just left office due to local term limits, and is a republican, without a doctorate, who was made president of this university in rather suspect circumstances, has the University do a Florida poll, which results in a polls Showing Bush with double digit lead in FLorida, which is contrary to every other poll.

several weeks old why don't we just wait and see what the next one says. If that one is still showing a sizable Bush lead in Wisconsin after everything which has happened lately then something is screwy.

ANd then they will do another Badger Poll to make certain that it looks like Bush is doing well. Tis has happened twice so far.When Kerry was ahead earlier, they did a Badger poll which showed Bush about 4 point ahead of Kerry, but this occured when Kerry was only polling a anywhere from 4 to 9 point against Bush, then it started looking Like Kerry was gaining a significnat lead, getting near double digits, they do another Badger poll showing Bush with a double digit lead. It has happened in several other states where Kerry was polling well ahead of Bush, particularly in battleground states.

that Bush leads Kerry 50-38% in Wisconsin. I've heard that the Badger Poll is conservative, but I have no proof or links.