Kerry's polling numbers go down when the media folk show a video of him?

Rasmussen says lttle change over last 70 days - a 45 to 45 poll - because over 70 separate samples have both candidates within 3 percentage points of the 45% mark and a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points -a close and stable race.

But Rassmussen observes that Bush loses a bit when bad news comes from Iraq ,but a week later is back to 45%. And He claims Kerry loses a bit everytime he gets focused on - which I believe means whenever Kerry gives a 10 minute answer to a yes/no question - or tries to play the "middle" as with the abortion and judges response - folks just do not respect that this cycle - but when the light leaves Kerry and goes back to Bush, Rassmusen says Kerry's numbers bounce back. All this leads Rassmusen to believe that events in Iraq and the economy will determine the outcome.

I really do not like that comment that Kerry's polling numbers go down whenever the media folk show a video of him making his latest statement.

Does anyone else see this cause and effect?

so it's not surprise. but it's expected.

a turnoff.

:-)

and at least he answers rather than ignores the question as bush does such as when asked why he has to testify with dick cheney at the 9/11 comission. he gave a short answer "because i want to help" yet that did not answer why he testified with cheney.

Paul Wellstone was right about that. Who knew?

to that analysis?

First, any link to this? I'd be interested to no whether Rassmussen (and keep in mind it IS Rassmussen) is doing a focus group, or is just speculating.

Keep in mind that Bush's strongest point is his attack. So any time Kerry speaks, Bush and his whole mob unleash their attacks, which turns the attention away from Bush's failures, and into his strength-- being petty. So his numbers rise.

Kerry's strength right now is his silence, or at least his knowing when to stay silent. Or, as Will Pitt put it, his staying out of the way of a good trainwreck.

So unless Rassmussen has focus group data showing Kerry tanking when he speaks, I think all he's done is proven what a lot of DUers are saying-- that any attack Kerry leads against Bush now only helps Bush, because it turns the focus away from Bush.

Later, obviously, Kerry will have to speak, to capitalize on the Bush decline. But for now, he shouldn't make W's job easier.

He does not claim focus group - just that he sees this correlation over last 70 days and says so on his site.

Indeed to better say only what he said - it was more like:

On days when the focus moves to Kerry, he drops in the poll

so his aren't as scientific or accurate as others. although it's good to keep a watch on it. his machine polling means a kid can pick up the phone and end up "voting". zogby's is more scientific in that he makes sure to get an accurate sample of population and calls back if nobody is there rather than just skip as rasmussen does.

First America has to decide is they want to re-elect Bush. Then they have to decide if they think Kerry is better.

Most Americans are now deciding Bush should not be re-elected (42% approval rate). Then they will decide to vote for Kerry...but they haven't gotten to that point, yet.

Most of the time when the focus is on Kerry, it's ignorant Judy Woodfluff blather. Or, it's Kerry taking aim at Bush which immediately causes the Bushlickers to rally 'round their guy. That's why Kerry has to continue to be very careful going against Bush. If people are allowed to draw their own conclusions, they will decide to dump Bush. If they are forced to draw conclusions before they're read, they'll bristle at the damned liberal Murica-haters and stick with their freedom-loving Bush.

...Kerry wins.

We really need that right now and I think John Edwards will bring that to the ticket like nobody else can. Kerry has the leadership and wisdom, Edwards has family values and American optimism. I think it's the best possible ticket.

i saw edwards on tv a few weeks ago representing kerry on the issue of iraq. and while you can tell he doesn't have as much knowledge as kerry , he was still able to answer in a way that helps kerry. most of his answers were things like "if kerry had been in office that would never have happened, or kerry has the knowledge and experience to deal with this". and since most vote based on who the presidential candidate is, i think edwards being able to be a good campaigner for kerry is a good thing.

Oooh, oooh, that should be the slogan... Trust in America Again, or Building Trust in Amerca... or something like that. Whaddya think?