Poll: Kerry Edges Bush Among N.J. Voters

ASSOCIATED PRESS

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is slightly ahead of President Bush in a poll of registered voters in New Jersey, a state that Democrat Al Gore won in 2000 by almost 16 percentage points.

Forty-six percent of the respondents support Kerry, 43 percent support Bush, and 5 percent say they support independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday.

Among independent voters, Kerry and Bush were about even.

Kerry's popularity is low in New Jersey. Twenty-seven percent viewed Kerry favorably, 28 percent unfavorably, and 33 percent had mixed feelings, according to the poll.

more: http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/bw-elect/2004/may/20/052006921.html

If we don't win New Jersey we have alot more problems than those 16 college votes. NJ is about as solid as you can reasonably ask for.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

I live in Jersey and I will most definitely vote for Kerry. And we'll win this state too, I'm positive of that.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

:wtf:

what I worry about is Kerry not doing as well as Gore did in New Jersey. If Gore won the state by 12-points and Kerry gets by winning by five or six points that could also be an indication that he could be in trouble on election night.

I don't see it as a problem. Most New Jerseyans know full well that Bush is a buffoon.

I hate these undigested 'registered voter' pollings. They necessarily sample in a way that makes the challenger's numbers appear weaker relative to an incumbent than they really are. You have to translate them into a 'likely voter' sample equivalent.


Bush's numbers (as the incumbent) are his approval rating, equal among those voting and those who don't. So, Bush = ~43% with likely voters.

Kerry's numbers (as the challenger) are an average of the rating he gets with the ~50% actual voters, and the 38% baseline lean with the other ~50%. So, Kerry at 46 means Kerry = ~54% with likely voters.

Nader's support is notorious 'bottom heavy', ~10% with non-voters and ~3% with likely voters. The error margin is large.

So, translated into a 'likely voter' poll, Kerry is up about 54-43. Without having spent a dime in the state.

you shouldn't look at Kerry's numbers in this poll since he is a challenger that does not have that much name recognition yet. The number you should focus on is that of Bush. 43% is horrible for an incumbent president. I would only worry if Bush had 50% or more support in NJ.

Some thought NJ was in play in 2000 and some of the polls showed the two candidates close, but Gore won easily. Hopefully, this year will be similar.

And I know of only 4 people that plan to vote for bush*

I have NEVER seen Bush/Cheney 04 bumper stickers, i have seen a great deal of John Kerry/ Howard Dean/ Kucinich/ Edwards/ Moveon and Kiss my Ashcroft stickers