Should Kerry bother with Florida?

I say no because Jeb is still in power. He shouldn't spend one dime there. It's hopeless, period end of story. No chance whatsoever of winning Florida. There's a better chance in Utah.

This state is in play, big time.

n/t

The crowd down here has turned on Bush, imo. I have no idea what the polls show, but I know what I see and hear. Very little of it can be construed as good news for Bush. He will lose Florida...again.

Florida is still in play, even more so than in 2000! There are lot more pissed of Democrats here now because of 2000.

make a plan to win enough states to win the electoral votes need without florida . but he can still campaign there and put some resources. but don't put it all in there as terry mcauliffe did in 2002 wanting revenge on bush by getting rid of jeb. it would have been good if some of those resources had gone to new hampshire and maybe texas georgia and missouri to help jeanne shaheen, ron kirk, max cleland and jean carnahan in their senate races.

Think of it this way: with Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris working against him, Gore STILL won Florida. Bush was certified the "winner" by only 500 votes.

So first of all, do you think there's anybody in FL who voted for Gore in 2000 that would vote for Bush in 2004? And second, do you think Bush has done enough to piss off at least 500 Floridians?

<< ... with Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris working against him, Gore STILL won Florida. Bush was certified the "winner" by only 500 votes ... do you think Bush has done enough to piss off at least 500 Floridians? >>

Trotsky, it wasn't 500 or 537 votes, it was however many ballots Republicans had to tamper with to keep Bush ahead. If Gore had somehow made up those 537 votes, the Republicans would have just fixed more of the punch-card ballots to take that many more votes away from Gore. There was somebody in Florida punch-card counties on election night who was stacking up punch-card ballots and mass-punching them through for Bush, so that the Bush votes remained Bush votes but the Gore votes turned into Bush/Gore overvote ballots. That's why ALL of the Bush/Gore overvote ballots in Florida were in PUNCH-CARD counties. That's the ONLY possible explanation I can think of for this anomaly, which was noted by Washington Post reporter Dan Keating, who participated in the post-election media recount. Sharman Braff wrote a piece about this which is still posted in the archived articles about Florida 2000 over at Democrats.com, and Jackson Thoreau mentions it in his downloadable on-line book about the Florida election fiasco at his Web site.

Ron

P.S. -- Oh, and I almost forgot, getting back to the subject of the original post in this thread, HELL YES Kerry should contend for Florida. As you noted, Trotsky, I can't imagine how anybody who voted for Gore in 2000 could possibly vote for Bush this time, so I don't think Florida will be anywhere near as close as it was last time. Sure, Jeb and company will try again to cheat and steal it, but I don't think it will be close enough TO steal this time.

Not bother with Florida? Jeb was in office last time, and without the butterfly ballot, Gore's win would have been too big to steal.

I think it will be HARDER for the GOP to steal Florida this time after having done it last election. All the tricks are known. The meme is ready. If they try it, it's more likely to be discovered and publicized.

what do you think we post here for?There are a lot of pissed off dems down here.We KNOW KNOW K-N-O-W they're gonna try and steal this state again,that's why we need Bob Grahamn as VP.

Florida.

I have no great confidence that FL will 'go blue', and share your concerns about it. That said, Kerry should still campaign there, if for no other reason than to force * to campaign there.

off voter if Kerry ignored my state because he thought it would be stolen again.

He should go and fight like hell and ensure that eligible voters are not purged again this year.

He should fight like hell for the voters of Florida.

of the state leaders. Kerry should fight to make a difference and team with civil organizations to see that eligible voters are indeed allowed to vote and have their vote counted.

I stand by my assertion that Kerry should fight, not for votes in Florida, but for the voters themselves! Everyone who has the right the vote should be allowed to vote and have their votes counted! It would resonate well with voters in Florida I believe.

but that should not be what he gets. This seems to be a dog fight for all votes and the dog fight should include Florida.

spending money, using up time, speaking to appalled LSU grads. And that's all because no one decided that it was "out of play."

A lot of people there did all they could during October and November 2000 for the good to prevail, and what you suggest is in fact to not honor them and all they did then. Gore never led in sample polling in Florida, they got as close as it was possible. We still owe them.

Kerry actually stands a better than even chance of winning Florida. He consistently leads there by 47-46 or 48-45 or thereabouts. If Florida follows national trend of +3%/Presidential election cycle for Democrats (and there's no reason to imagine it doesn't) Kerry ought to carry it by perhaps 51 to 46. Chances are that the Democratic effort is going to be more competent than the one in 2000, though the Republican one will too.

I think that of the Red swing states, Kerry will win New Hampshire most easily and Ohio is next- and will put him over 269 EVs. But Florida is only slightly more difficult to win than Ohio. Nevada and Arizona seem pretty good chances at pickups after that, with West Virginia about the most Red state with reasonable chance to fall Democratic this go-around.

:shrug:

Not to mention a DEAD HEAT in the polling.

Contend? It's a no brainer.

For FLorida, Kerry gets furtther ahead of Bush. For a while it was close, one point apart, but the most recent polls put a bit more distance between Kerry and Bush. Once recent poll has Kerry ahead of Bush in Florida by 3 points. Florida sould not be ignored, as the majority of late deciding voters in this state tend to be minority voters who tend to be registered democrats rather than Republicans. There is still a democratic majority in registered voters in Florida, though it is small, around 66,000 voters differnce.

on now (Inside Politics)

He has Kerry wining the Electoral Map 300 - 238, with Florida and Ohio going for Kerry