Zogby - Kerry leads bush* 57 to 32!!!!

Don't have a link yet. I just heard this on MSNBC! Finally the polls are catching up with reality!

:bounce: :kick:

http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm

This seems to be regarding jobs/economy.

edited for the link
edited again to add an "m" to link!
:argh:

be true .....

oh, I crack myself up...

Anyway, don't just use positive wishing. Act! Suppport the direction that you want to take!

That may be what he meant
I hope you are right, but 32% sounds a little too unrealistic to me.

I thought it meant overall voter preference but I could be wrong. I'll check it out further.

IT IS HAPPENING BABY !!!!!!!!!

having had a double hernia operation on Tuesday, and dealing with the pain - in part - through Percocet. Which is similar to what Rush got addicted to. So I don't know if I hread that headline correctly, but ti looks to me like kerry has a 25 point lead in a poll.

If this isn't just an on-line poll, it would be soooo sweet.

And if you feel sympathy for me - cuase of the operation, visit and buy somebody you like a gift. A percent will come to me, and through me to moveon.org.

and I mentioned drugs and Rush in it. I'm afraid I'll slipping over to the dark side...

There was a link here yesterday to sign up for Zogby's interactive poll. I thought I had, but I never got the confirmation and information to take the poll. On-line polls tend to be overwhelmingly anti-*, so I wonder if that's what this is. If people can sign up voluntarily rather than being chosen systematically to represent the population as a whole, it may not be valid.

I sure hope you heard right, though! :bounce:

similar numbers for Iraq as top issue. Both of which are a good part of the population.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=829

Among Those Who Say “Jobs/Economy” The Top Issues, Kerry Leads Bush 52%-37%;

“War In Iraq”, Kerry Leads Bush 52%-39%;

“War on Terrorism”, Bush Leads Kerry 64%-26%,

New Zogby International Survey Reveals
Nearly one in three (31%) likely voters cite jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country today, followed by the war in Iraq (22%) and the war on terrorism (9%).

Among those who cite jobs and the economy as top issues, John Kerry leads President Bush 52% to 37%, according to a new Zogby International survey.

The nationwide sample of 985 likely voters was taken Monday through Thursday (May 10-13, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points.

Kerry is in the war on terrorism but only 9% of people cite that as the most important issue.

I'm not sure its even. Matter of fact I doubt it. Kerry leads 15 points on the economy issue, 14 (I believe) on Iraq. * is way ahead on the war on terr (about 32), granted, but I don't know how all of this is weighted in the final voter choice numbers, is uncertain. Hopefully, we'll get more soon.

Of course there's a lag time of a few days from conducting the poll to tabulating and releasing results. If this is the most recent poll, and its old, I'd like to know what new means!

That is Zogby's most recent poll, and it has Kerry with 47% and Bush with 42% - margin of error 3.2%.

I agree that the poll you cite is hardly "old." I was merely attempting to clarify what I thought the previous poster meant.

Of course, the Iraq shitstorm has been intensifying since then, so *'s numbers may be even lower.

Which is a lifetime in politics

"The nationwide sample of 985 likely voters was taken Monday through Thursday (May 10-13, 2004)"

Last week.

things are looking good :)

stillonly May. If these numbers were from the first week of November I MIGHT get excited. There are too many variables between now and then, not the least of them being a Diebold enhanced election result.

It should be this: http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm

And unfortunately, those Kerry-Bush numbers don't include the "War on Terra," where Bush still holds a commanding lead over Kerry. Factor that in and things are... still even. :eyes:

.

jobs/economy. Nowhere in the link does Zogby mention the overall matchup numbers.

The 57-32 figure cited in the thread title creates the impression that Bush is 25 points behind Kerry overall. He isn't. He's either even with or a few points from Kerry in almost every poll, and it's his "good job" in the War on Terra which is primarily responsible for it.

If the only issues in this campaign were jobs, the economy, and the war in Iraq, Kerry would win handily. But the American people, thanks in part to the Bush Administration's constant talk of terrorism, have worked themselves into a frenzy about a possible terrorist attack. Bush, by virtue of just "being there" on 9-11, has gained a reputation for being a solid fighter of terrorism. He damn sure didn't get it from anything else.

And by the way: When I refer to "those numbers," I mean the 57-32 figure. I am not referring to the link. If I had meant the link itself, I would have said so. Thanks for your understanding. :hi:

made things even. I was focusing on the percentages of voters who considered each issue to be primary and used them as a weighting factor. Less than 10% considered the WOT as primary.

The last Zogby poll had Kerry with 47% and Bush with 42%. With a MOE of +/- 3.2%, it could just as easily be a dead heat. 91% may regard the War on Terra as less important than other issues, but 42% still prefer Bush over Kerry or any other opponent, even though they seem to find Bush deficient on every issue but the War on Terra.

However, many folks have noted elsewhere the disconnect between the ratings of bush-on-the-issues and election preferences.

31% say Jobs/Economy is the most important issue.
22% say the War in Iraq is the most important issue.
9% say the War on Terrorism is the most important issue.

31 + 22 + 9 = 62

This gives us a total of 62% for this poll, with 38% unaccounted for. So let's just deal with the 62%. 62 will be our divisor.

Jobs/Economy (31% say "most important")
Kerry gets 52% support here. 52 x 31 = 1612. 1612/62 = 26. 26% for Kerry.
Bush gets 37% support here. 37 x 31 = 1147. 1147/62 = 18.5. 18.5% for Bush.

Iraq War (22% say "most important")
Kerry gets 52% support here. 52 x 22 = 1144. 1144/62 = 18.451612903225806451612903225806. Round that to 18.45% for Kerry.
Bush gets 39% support here. 39 x 22 = 858. 858/62 = 13.838709677419354838709677419355. Round that to 13.84% for Bush.

War on Terrorism (9% say "most important")
Kerry gets 26% support here. 26 x 9 = 234. 234/62 = 3.7741935483870967741935483870968. Round that to 3.77% for Kerry.
Bush gets 64% support here. 64 x 9 = 576. 576/62 = 9.2903225806451612903225806451613. Round that to 9.29% for Bush.

Now let's add those numbers up.
Kerry - 26 + 18.45 + 3.77 = 48.22
Bush - 18.5 + 13.84 + 9.29 = 41.63

Now, let's round the numbers and throw in the Undecided and Other figures. Among the 62% who feel that Jobs/Economy, the War in Iraq, or the War on Terrorism are the most important issues, here is how it comes out:

Kerry - 48%
Bush - 42%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 7%

Now, let's compare that to the most recent Zogby poll (performed 10-13 May, released 16 May), which dealt with 100% of Zogby's sample rather than 62%:

Kerry - 47%
Bush - 42%
Nader - 3%
Undecided - 7%

Somewhere in the 38% that Zogby's Jobs/Economy-War in Iraq-War on Terrorism poll doesn't mention, Kerry loses a point. That's the only major difference.

Thanks for the analysis.

You did geta little carried away with the insignificant decimal places.

So I included every number the calculator spit out at me. ;)

I couldn't find them. Does Zogby weight the areas of highest importance more than those of lesser importance when computing overall preference?

Btw, thanks for the info on my link. I was up too late last night and am acting like a real ditz today! :crazy:

or he didn't do overall matchup numbers for this poll. The nearest thing chronologically I could find to a matchup poll was from a Zogby report dated 16 May, which had the matchups as follows:

Kerry - 47
Bush - 42
Undecided - 8

With Nader added to the mix:

Kerry - 46.6
Bush - 42
Nader - 3.2
Undecided - 7

This poll was performed 10-13 May, about a week after the one Zogby's currently talking about. Here's the link: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826

Edit: Changed "before" to "after" in reference to the time frame for the matchup polls.

Thanks for all the information and wonderfun insight, as usual!

:yourock:

diebold and es&s won't be able to save his punk ass.

(Yes I confess, I'm watching Fox)

Rather than talk about this, they show poll results for how "strongly" Bush supporters support Bush, vs. how strongly Kerry supporters support Kerry. Not surprisingly, Bush supporters support him more strongly. Ooooh, they tell us, that's something Kerry should worry about!! The passion is only about beating Bush! Bad, bad news!

I say, not really! We just got through primaries with *ten* candidates! But more importantly, it doesn't matter how "passionately" people feel, or what they feel passionately about, when they pull that lever (or touch that screen). A vote is a vote, and Kerry is looking good -- which Fox conveniently ignores.

His support is so "strong" he's losing in every single poll to Kerry! :D

If that's true Bush is in a big heap o'trouble!
::headbang:

are predicting a Kerry win,, both in the popular vote and in the electoral college and it has them right upset.

Among Those Who Say “Jobs/Economy” The Top Issues, Kerry Leads Bush 52%-37%; “War In Iraq”, Kerry Leads Bush 52%-39%; “War on Terrorism”, Bush Leads Kerry 64%-26%, New Zogby International Survey Reveals


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=829

I think it came on the 18th and I must have missed it, because the "reminder" I finally responded to was dated the 20th. It was my "last chance"---I don't know if my survey counted....

It was VERY short....only questions about right/wrong track; fav vs. unfav. about Bush and Kerry; and who would you vote for 2 way race and 3 way with Nader.

That was it...the shortest one I've ever seen.....

It's May. Polls are meaningless at this point. Show me the polls in October when most of America will actually be thinking of the election in reality terms.

Is that on many nonscientific, online polls being done by places like MSNBC, and other places, Kerry is leading, running about 59 to 60 percent, Bush with 36- 37 percent, and Nadder eating up the few remaining percentage points.

Scientific or not, these polls are being done with anywhere from 80-100,000 people or more taking part in them, and I think that these polls more than anything areindicative of how the real public is going to vote in November.

In a way the "scientific" nature of organized polling is its major flaw. Pollsters selectively choose whom they will poll, and often give ambiguous or leading questions. These online ones are free for alls and probably represent a greater cross section, due to the magnitude of responders. Plus, people are usually answering one, up or down, question.

.