the end of the Republican Party

I've been thinking about the possible outcomes of this election, and I've found myself convinced that, if Kerry wins, it will mean the complete dissolution of the Republican Party. (Maybe just wishful thinking...)

Here are my points, make of them what you will:

-Historical precedent dictates that incumbents when or lose in landslides and that incumbents with approval ratings below 50% at this point in the campaign go on to lose.

-Looking at the polling numbers, it seems far more likely for Bush to lose in a landslide than for him to win in a landslide.

-The Republican Party is becoming horribly fractured, with the fiscal conservative, social conservative/fundamentalist Christian, free-market libertarian, and neo-conservative wings all expressing disgust with different aspects of this administration. Conversely, the Democratic Party has never been more unified.

-No one in the Republican leadership has come out with criticism of this president (some here and there, yes, but I mean Frist, Santorum, DeLay, etc.), and they seem likely to follow Bush into Hell, if need be. The party members will be extremely angry with the obstinance of the Republican leadership, and they will all blame the leadership--and the other wings-- for refusing to leave a sinking ship because of an overabundance of pride. The libertarians will join the Libertarian Party; the Fundies, the Constitution Party; the neo-cons will hopefully return to Hell; and the fiscal conservatives (ie. true Republicans) will abandon the "Republican" party due to its political radioactivity (kind of like Democrats refusing to accept the label of Liberal).

To recap, Bush will lose in a landslide, taking the fractured Republican Party with him. The leadership will refuse to resign (can anyone really see DeLay resigning over anything?), causing the factions to depart to their more-ideologically aligned third parties.

Does anyone agree with me? or have I just been up too long? :hangover:

edit: spelling

...certainly, the Republicans have dragged their Party through the stinky sewer, but, you know, sometimes America likes the sewer too. Time will tell.

we are only one terrorist attack away from having the elections suspended.

Please explain. There are thousands of candidates,ballot initiatives in play. To cancel the election is not possible. Become better informed. Stop the defeatist attitude. Work for the positive.

But it will have to change and move to the center if it wants to survive.

Republican version of the DLC. Or a similar process within the party.

They just got meaner.

Never 'misunderestimate' them... ever again!

The Party managed to survive because the Republicans of that time realized Nixon was screwed and they couldn't allow him to take down the party, so they turned on him.

These Republicans seem perfectly happy to let Bush take them all down.

The neocons and fundies are not going to give up power quietly under any circumstances. Even if they actually do get kicked out in November, they'll do what they've always done every time the Republicans have lost the WH, which is to lurk quietly in the background and wait to get power back.

And don't assume for a second that we will have a Prez Kerry next year. Bush may be drowning in his own shit right now, but five months is still a pretty significant period of time and it's still quite possible -- even if the odds are increasing against him -- for Chimpy to salvage his presidency.

I am so tired of the defeatists here. GO AWAY REPUBLICANS,YOU SUCK!

My father was thinking the same thing the other day. We love talking politics on the phone.

And we got Ronald Reagan. The Reagan wing of the party looks like it may be losing its grip on power. Look for "moderate" Republicans, the New York, California, basically literate type to get a shot at leadership once again, but I don't think they'll make it. Remember, DeLay and Frist have to be elected by the Republican Caucuses every two years, so they do reflect what the majority of the party wants.

However, Kerry's election, and the possible loss of Republican majorities in the congress, will allow the Republicans to do what they're best at, and that is shooting down and destroying any progress that others may want to pursue. It's been their modus operandi since Teddy Roosevelt left the GOP. If the GOP loses big, look for them to get incredibly nasty and appeal to the fear and hatred that is so deeply ingrained in so many of their supposed constituents while their real constituency, the big money folks, finance their attempts to return to power.

But if shrub gets crushed in the election, the neocons will go more than likely go down. the pubbies don't take beatings very well -- they love to find people to blame.

These people are power hungry and are willing to disavow some of their core beliefs for power.

Also, though the Democratic Party seems unified, this is mostly just anti-Bush unity, which could dissolve (or diminish) when Kerry is elected.

The kind of factionalism found in the Republican Party today pales in comparison with the usual factionalism in the Democratic Party.

They are convinced of their innate moral superiority and they have a vast well- funded media organization which will continue to spew out justifications for their smugness.

Way back in the 1850's, the Whigs disintergrated... The most powerful fraction of the Whigs, the wealthy northern businessmen, would join and eventually take control of the Republican Party. I see something similar happening...

As the Republicans move right, they drag the Democrats with them... The Republicans move too far right and disintergrate into their component parts (Fundie, Libertarian, Wealthy).
Another party will form to fill the gap. It might be one of the current parties (Green, Libertarian, Reform) or a alliance of parties or something entirely new. The question becomes whether the Democrats will continue to move right, becoming the conservative party with a new party on the left, or if the Democrats will move left with a new party forming on the right.

wildly popular Anarcho-Syndicalist Party. ? The republican party was exploiting the workers by hanging on to outdated imperialist dogma which perpetuates the economic and social differences in our society.

;)