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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:24 PM
Original message
Latest electoral vote count
Edited on Fri May-28-04 01:29 PM by Nicholas_J
Kerry ahead with 19 states for 253 electoral votes...

Bush 14 states for 129 electoral votes.

Kerry is 17 EV away from electoral college win.

Bush has been dropping over the last month from a high of 203 electoral votes.

These counts are for actual states where candidate has lead.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

The latest projections for November give Kerry an ovwhelming victory in November:

Kerry Electoral votes: 337 52.87 popular vote

Bush Electoral votes 201 45.3 0 popular vote

http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
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Claire Beth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. Cool! thanks for the link too. n/t
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. The good news is
it looks like Kerry is not in danger of losing any blue states (I'm confident he'll win PA, which will give him an electoral majority in that current map) and has a great chance of picking up NH, Ohio, and maybe some other red states.
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Jmeyers130 Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Ohio
so long as fucking Diebold doesn't strike
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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 03:02 PM
Response to Original message
4. Not to be a downer, but
Edited on Fri May-28-04 03:04 PM by Lefty Pragmatist
those polls list Wyoming, Georgia, Nebraska, North Dakota, Mississippi, Alaska, and Virginia as no polls available, and every one of those states is going to go red by a wide margin.

It's a lot closer than that implies.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Eh, so what?
Edited on Fri May-28-04 03:11 PM by Beetwasher
Kerry's lead in the EV count doesn't depend on any of those states going blue. All he needs on that map is PA and that's pretty likely IMO.
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DaveSZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Wow
Edited on Fri May-28-04 03:36 PM by DaveSZ
N Carolina is within the margin of error?

That's amazing.


P.S. Kerry needs to hold Penn. for the Dems and pick up another state like Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Arizona.
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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. The point is
Edited on Fri May-28-04 03:38 PM by Lefty Pragmatist
It isn't some sort of a 50 EV blowout, so keep working.

(And NC being within the margin of error isn't amazing. It indicates that the polls don't mean squat yet. NC is solid red for a generation)

I also think we'll get PA. We damn well better.
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DaveSZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. The election is probably over for us if we lose Pennsylvania, it's true.
;)
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. Hardly
Kerry is sitting on a projected 337 electoral votes. Bush 201. Kerry could lose a hundred electoral votes and still win the electoral college. Whic is not likely to happen. He could lose PA's 21 electoral votes and still win by a significnat margin.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-29-04 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. However
Edited on Sat May-29-04 03:43 PM by fujiyama
some of those 337 aren't exactly as easy to win as PA should be.

There's no reason to lose the state. Gore won it by a small, though respectable margin of some 4-5%. Clinton won it twice, and even Dukakis didn't lose that state by as large a margin as he lost others.

We really do need it.

The 337 implies that we will peel off AZ, NV, MO, as well as FL. While these are all definetely swing states, there is no guarantee we will win all (or any) of them. PA is more likely and reliable to go blue than the others listed above, so it's more important for Kerry to win it than for Bush.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Work as If You're Behind
That's what I always say, and that's what Kerry always does...His lead at this point in the campaign however is AMAZING and HISTORIC. Funny how you don't see any of the media mentioning this fact.
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GreenInNC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. NC may go Dem
especially if Edwards is VP. We have lost a lot of jobs in the last 4 years and not just blue collar. My wife is a computer programmer and her job along with thousands more from Charlotte and the Research Triangle (Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill) are headed to India. Many of my conservative friends refuse to vote for Bush, they won't vote for Kerry either but that is fine.

We have a strong Dem. Governor and Edwards seat will most likely stay Dem.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. Virginia will not go by a margin any larger than Colorado.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. I don't know about Virginia...
a wide margin? You sure?
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
17. Bush could win all of those state
And Kerry would still win the election by the electoral college. If you look at election projections acccessment of what will be the likely final count Kerry still wins by 136 electoral votes with Bush taking all of those states that are likely to go red.
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 04:31 PM
Response to Original message
11. Very encouraging.
Edited on Fri May-28-04 04:32 PM by elperromagico
I was waiting for new California polls which would demonstrate that the Rasmussen 46-45 figure from a few weeks ago was an anomaly.

Seems like Kerry isn't running such a bad campaign after all. Let's not get too cocky though. :)
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
12. Wonderful!! Thanks for the update!
:kick:
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carnival Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 06:13 PM
Response to Original message
14. It Ain't Over
It ain't over 'til it's over. Keep the heat on 'til the last vote is counted!
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-29-04 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Hi carnival!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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marlakay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
18. congress.org go there and vote now!!
Hi. I hope it works that way, we will do all we can! Go to congress.org and vote now. We were ahead for weeks but the bushies must have found the site and they are way ahead. Tell your friends everyone!!
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-29-04 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
20. Give Pennsylvania to Kerry
It too should be light blue. I also think IA should be the same. I'd give the rest to Bush (though I give FL to them only because of the fraud factor..in a fair election we'd win that state too).
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