Nader, Although Weaker, May Reprise His Spoiler Role

Nader, Although Weaker, May Reprise His Spoiler Role

In what's expected to be a close race, the slightest breeze could tip the balance.

By Charles E. Cook Jr.

FROM: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-cook18jun18,1,1637611.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions
As paradoxical as it seems, though Ralph Nader will probably receive significantly fewer votes in his independent candidacy for president than he received in 2000, he could again easily make the difference in this year's race.

In 2000, the consumer activist got 2,882,955 votes, 2.7% of the 105,405,100 votes cast. This time, even if he were to win just a half, a quarter, even a 10th of the vote he got last time, he could still be the deciding factor. Why will Nader lose votes this year? Although the country was as highly polarized then as it is now — both between Democrats and Republicans, and along pro-Clinton/Gore and anti-Clinton/Gore lines — the George W. Bush of 2000 was a far less polarizing figure than he is today.

And this time, voters perceive significant differences between the candidates. Traveling tens of thousands of miles across the United States, meeting thousands of people in every corner and in most of the 50 states, I have yet to find a single American who didn't believe that George W. Bush and John F. Kerry would be very different presidents, taking the country in different directions. Half believes that it is very important to reelect Bush; the other half believes it equally important to replace him. Some of the latter are enthusiastic about Kerry, but for most in this half, it is "Anybody but Bush."

It is precisely this emotion — and the newfound appreciation for just how close a presidential election can be these days — that tells me that Nader will get significantly fewer votes this time.

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