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Quinnipiac POLLS: Obama leads McLame in PA (47/38), within one point in FL (44/43) and OH (43/42).

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 09:57 AM
Original message
Quinnipiac POLLS: Obama leads McLame in PA (47/38), within one point in FL (44/43) and OH (43/42).
From Quinnipiac University:

Florida: Clinton 49, McCain 41; McCain 44, Obama 43
Ohio: Clinton 48, McCain 38; McCain 43, Obama 42
Pennsylvania: Clinton 51, McCain 37; Obama 47, McCain 38
Margins of error: 2.5-2.9 points

http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/01/new-battleground-numbers/
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. The Florida Poll is Surprising
I figured the Dems would be losing FL this year and would have to make it up somewhere else.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Even with all the bullshit smears and the lousy press...He's looking more than competitive.
And his numbers will only improve. So we can put that bugus ("he can't compete in the battlegrounds") talking point to bed.

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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:01 AM
Response to Original message
2.  He also beats McCain by 7 or 8 points in Indiana while Hillary
loses to McCain in that red state.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. I'm willing to bet about $100 we won't win Indiana this year.
That was one poll and I have a hard time believing it. The Republicans have a 14-16 point advantage in identification there. That's hard to overcome.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. I think we can put it in play
I doubt we can win but we might be able to make McCain spend money there. Indiana has been hit hard by the Bush economic policies, and the fact that we picked up 3 seats there in 2006 was encouraging, especially since none of the Republican incumbents we knocked off were scandal-plagued.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #10
16. By the time Indiana is close, we are already over 400 EVs. It doesn't matter.
Indiana is no more competitive to us than Rhode Island is to the Republicans, statistically speaking.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. Exactly.
The only time either candidate will win Indiana is in a blowout. We would have to win the popular vote by close to 10% to win Indiana.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:01 AM
Response to Original message
3. and Clinton wins all 3 easily in case you hadnt noticed
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Who is "Clinton"?
Irrelevant.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. yup as i thought, dumb as rocks.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. The pointt is it seriously undercuts YOUR argument and the argument
of the vast majority of Hill supporters here, that Obama can't beat McCain, that he's unelectable, blah blah blah. And Hill loses to McCain in a red state that Obama beats him in.
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sunonmars Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. yeah, ok, Clinton wins 3 big electoral states, obama wins one, lol
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:09 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. "Clinton" won't have a chance to win any. Fret not...
Obama will win more than enough to be the next POTUS. And we'll all dance and cheer!
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. try applying some logic. I never claimed Clinton is unelectable.
You have claimed Obama is. I pointed out that this poll indicates that he's competitive with McCain in states hillfans claim he can never win. That obviously undercuts YOUR argument that he's not electable.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:02 AM
Response to Original message
4. And Obama hasnt stepped foot in Florida this year.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
8. He's gained ground in PA and FL
Since the last Quinnipiac poll. Healthy lead in PA is encouraging, as is the close race in Florida. But of course, the MSM will focus on the fact that clinton looks stronger in these polls (same as last time), rather than Obama gaining ground.
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Red Zelda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:07 AM
Response to Original message
12. Yeah ... FL and OH
There are two dependable states.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #12
17. We've got to win at least one of them.
It is very difficult to get to the magic number without them. You have to draw an inside straight. Also, if you're not winning Ohio, you sure as shit ain't winning Missouri or Virginia.
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. Yup
:thumbsup:
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. Respectfully -The OP Turns The Poll Findings On It's Head
The findings are , at this time, Hillary puts OH, FL, and PN away... With Obama they are all competitive...

Why would someone do that?

What purpose does it serve?
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:19 AM
Response to Original message
19. ROFL
Edited on Thu May-01-08 10:19 AM by prodn2000
At the responses on this thread...

YES WE CAN! WE ARE WITHIN ONE POINT!

Although...Clinton wins by double digits in the same states...

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

I guess silly season has been extended.
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
22. But, but, but Hillary polls better than McCain.
:sarcasm:
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. I Don't Get It
The polls suggests Hillary puts all three states away... The polls suggests Senator Obama makes all three states competititive...

If your goal is to see a Democrat in the White House why wouldn't that set of facts not have saliency?

Do you know that no candidate since 1960 has won the White House without winning two of the following three states; FL, OH and PN?
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. You can stretch that one back even further.
I think you can go back to the 19th century with that one. Eisenhower won them all. Truman won 2/3. FDR won 2 out of three or more. The Republicans in the 1920s always won 2/3. Wilson won 2/3 and so on.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. I'd Bet My House That The Winner Of PN, FL, And OH Wins The Election
It's hard to see putting together an Electoral College majority without them, especially given the fact that many states aren't really in play ; despite the most fervent wishes of the devotees of either candidate...
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
25. He's gained ground in all those states plus runs better than Hill in states like
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado.
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DemsUnited Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. Agree. Here in VA, it would be tough, but Obama has a chance
and Clinton, well, maybe when a certain fiery terrain freezes over.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. Florida Has Over Twice As Many Delegates As Virginia
And you could ice skate on South Beach before Obama carried the Sunshine State...
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DemsUnited Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. perhaps, but latest poll has him within 1% of McCain. EOM
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. FL and PN Have More Delegates Than All Those States Combined, Never Mind OH
And Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington have went blue the last three elections...

And again, no candidate has won the presidency in the past forty eight years without carrying two of the following three states-FL, PN, and OH...
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