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Will Obama gain enough superdelegates before the NC and IN primary to balance out the PA primary?

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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:50 AM
Original message
Will Obama gain enough superdelegates before the NC and IN primary to balance out the PA primary?
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:11 AM by Stop Cornyn
Hillary netted 10 delegates more than Obama from the PA primary.

However, since the PA primary, Obama has netted 5 more superdelegates than Hillary has managed to pick up.

So, as the NC and IN primaries draw nearer, the question on the table is this:

Will Hillary's delegate boomlet from PA be entirely erased before the next round of primaries or will her boomlet only be mostly diminished?

Bonus Question: If PA was Hillary's last best hope to catch up to Obama, and she's only netted 5 total delegates since PA (with that margin dropping almost daily), where is she going to win by margins that would even hypothetically allow her to catch up to Obama?

Sources:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90072094
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. The only way she can possibly win
Now is through defections of either Pledge or Super Delegates. Defections have been rare and one sided so far.
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. She can't
she just enjoys the spotlight and is hoping for a V.P. nomination
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:58 AM
Response to Original message
3. Pssst. It's IN (Indiana) not IA (Iowa)
Take it from a midwesterner. :hi:
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Fixed it. I was just reading about the IN primary and today's IA superdelegate endorsements and got
mixed up.
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. The "M" states are even harder to keep straight
If I hadn't lived in MO (Missouri) for so long, I'd have just assumed MO = Montana. :)
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:08 AM
Response to Original message
4. If Obama wins North Carolina and gets at least 40% of Indiana
I think you'll see the SD boomlet turn into a full-size tremor.

:headbang:
rocknation
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. 40% of Indiana is PATHETIC. It will be spun as a huge lose and rightly so. Obama and his campaign
have dropped the ball and seem unable to get it back.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. 40% of IN won't be a huge loss for anyone--it's a dead heat now
Edited on Thu May-01-08 12:10 PM by rocknation
(link). As for Hillary, she's so far behind that she'll have to win in ALL TEN of the remaining contests with at least 68% of the vote in order to improve her pledged delegate numbers:

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = a "real" win

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech


:headbang:
cocknation
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. this isn't ABOUT the delegates. How dense can Obama supporters be? It's about Obama looking
like a loser headed in the GE.

Yes, Obama gets the nomination, by losing and limping his way there because he and his camp refuse to deal with Hillary.

Fact- she's hurting his brand. Fact- his campaign is doing NOTHING to counter this.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. If Obama's limping, Hillary's in traction.
Edited on Thu May-01-08 12:28 PM by rocknation
Is that reputation Hillary wants--sabotaging him because she couldn't defeat him on merit alone? And since when did John McCain obtain sainthood? He hasn't disowned any of HIS whacko clergymen.

:headbang:
rocknation
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. This is about the damage Hillary is causing and Obama's incompetence in dealing with it.
It will damage him in November. Needlessly.

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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. This is about Hillary CAUSING damage
on the grounds that if she can't win, no other Dem should.

:headbang:
rocknation
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Yes, and it's up to Obama and his campaign to deal with it. And they are failing.
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 05:25 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. New polls tomorrow will show Obama back on the rise
and just in time for the primaries next week...

Hillary has already peaked years ago, and still hiccups.

Hawkeye-X
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. As a matter of fact.. one of the polls today shows Obama
still maintaining at least a 10 point lead over Clinton. The rest are outliers.
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. More reason for Hillary to drop out and endorse Obama
for the sake of unity. You have been an Obama supporter, and now you're acting like NJSecularist....

for shame..

Hawkeye-X
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:50 AM
Response to Original message
7. Who cares? Obama Will LOSE Indiana & Hillary will continue on making him look like a weak
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:51 AM by cryingshame
ineffective loser.

Obama supporters are too dense to realize that even though Obama may limp and lose his way to the nomination he's going to have been branded a loser for the GE.

Either he and his fucked up campaign get off their asses and deal with Hillary or all this is for nothing and he loses in November.

The prize is no longer the nomination. IT"S WINNING IN NOVEMBER. And Obama and his camp have done jackshit to counter any of the swiftboating.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Well..as long
as that bitch doesn't get the nomination I'm okay with it. I will take the chance that people will wake the hell up and realize that Obama is better than McCain. If they can't see that then they better not say shit about losing their home or not having a job because I don't care! If you are stupid enough to vote for McCain over Obama then you deserve what you get!
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #7
16. I've seen college football games where the home team runs up a 42 point unsurmountable first half
lead.

When the away team stops the shut out with a field goal in the closing minutes in the fourth quarter, I'm sure it makes the home team look weak, too.

Everybody on the home team worries whether that field goal is going to make them vulnerable in the bowl game (at least that's what the losers say), but nobody doubts who's going to get the bowl invitation.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
8. Here it is from DemconWatch Obama + 13, Clinton + 5 with latest endorsement 5 min ago
4-23-08 Added Gov. Brad Henry (OK) for Obama.
- Added Rep. John Tanner (TN) for Clinton
- Added DNC Audra Ostergard (NE) for Obama
4-24-08 - Added Rep. David Wu (OR) for Obama
4-26-08 - Added Kathy Sullivan (NH)# new NH add-on, for Clinton.
Added DNC Charlene Fernandez (AZ) new AZ state vice-chair, for Obama.
4-28-08 - Added Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM) for Obama.
- Added Fmr. DNC Chairman Paul Kirk (MA) for Obama. He endorsed a while ago but we never had a valid source.
4-29-08 - Added Gov. Mike Easley (NC) for Clinton
- Added DNC Richard Machacek (IA) for Obama.
- Added Rep. Ben Chandler (KY) for Obama
- Added Rep. Ike Skelton (MO) for Clinton
4-30-08 - Added Rep. Bruce Braley (IA) for Obama
- Added DNC William George (PA) for Clinton
- Added Rep. Baron Hill (IN) for Obama
- Added Rep. Lois Capps (CA) for Obama
- Added DNC Luisette Cabanas (PR) for Clinton
5-1-08 - Moved DNC Joe Andrew (IN) from Clinton to Obama.
- Added DNC John Patrick (TX) for Obama
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jsamuel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. they are missing 4 NY supers that went for Clinton today
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. She's even further down in the current count.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. Real Clear Politics has Clinton's superdelegate lead down even lower to 18 (from 97 two months ago)
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. Clinton's superdelegate lead now down to 17 (from 97 not too long ago)
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
25. Here is Hillary's biggest problem


The one thing she COULD hold over Obama was her superdelegate lead, but it's dropped some seventy-five per cent.

:headbang:
rocknation
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