Obama supporters, I have a question for you

Ok I really am curious about this, so let's keep it civil. From what I have observed, many Obama supporters believe the following:

#1) Barack Obama essentially has the nomination wrapped up
#2) By not dropping out, Hillary is hurting the party
#3) Therefore, Hillary Clinton ought to drop, or else Mccain will win.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that both one and two are correct in every single context. My question for you is why don't the remaining super delegates immediately endorse Obama and end this process?

Let's assume Obama gets the nomination & loses in November, which is a real possibility. You realize that is the end of liberal presidential politics as we know.

So once Obama gets to about 1975 delegates, every last one of those superdelegates will think long and hard before gambling on the man with the least amount of military, executive, & competitive campaign experience ever nominated.

If I were Obama & truly wanted to unify the country & solidify an easy future presidency for himself, I'd ask Gore to step in & run & throw my delegates behind him. Then Obama would be seem to be the true conscience of the party, the true statesman, & would probably end up VP, & a two term president without invoking much political risk.

experience than Obama.

And as much as we like Gore, Gore did NOT win the votes this time around - it would be very problematical to just hand him the nomination.

Gore is everything I'd want in a president, but only on occasion do his speeches inspire people to act. That is his one lack that Obama has in abundance. Now if Gore loves the country as much as I think he does, he would step in and offer to be Obama's VP. THAT would be unbeatable.

stronger Internet to support him and counter corporate media slander. I also believe this is precisely why the corporate media were so passionate in trashing Al Gore to the point of brain washing many of the American People regarding his character.

:rofl:

You remember how Bill stayed one jump ahead of the Republicans during his two terms?

You dont do that by being a nice guy to deal with.

The Clintons are somewhat Nixonian in having long memories against perceived enemies.

tied back to the Clintons... It will be all over but the crying at that point.

As many have said, they have made up their mind. Many are just waiting til June 3rd to announce it. Others feel it is harming the party and realize there is no way for her to catch up so they are endorsing Obama.

Most of them are members of congress who don't want to piss off either Obama or Hillary until they can definitely determine who is going to be the winner for fear that choosing the wrong side would hurt their own re-election.

My answer differs slightly from your assumptions.

Obama is likely nominee, but he doesn't have it wrapped up. It isn;t over until the fat lady sings.

Super delegates without a certain degree of backbone are hedging their bets. If Clinton does happen to pull it off, and they went against the Clintons, they fear they would be subjected to the famous Clinton Deep Freeze, enemies list....whatever.

Case in point Bill Richardson.

That's my honest answer.

He's had enough SD's committed to him for some time to take the lead and she knows it. I believe he wants her to withdraw on her terms, for party unity.

will you let us know?

I read somewhere that many freshman Congresspeople who won narrowly in 2006 don't want to declare for fear of dividing their Dem voters and handing their seats right back to the Rape-Publicans.

So - given your assumption that #1 and #2 are correct - it's the Clinton defenders' hysteria that's holding back at least these SDs.

NGU.

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and are fence-sitting to see what their constituents want.

I believe some have also stated that they will not cast their votes until their state/district has voted, and will follow along with the majority, in effect become pledged delegates.

Some are also probably seeing what promises they can extact from a candidate (funds, appointments, etc.) before picking a side.

However, Obama is going to have a very strong showing in the remaining states. There will be no blowouts, so he and Hillary are going to split the remaining pledged delegates about evenly. The fencesitters will also break about evenly, still leaving Hillary with about 150 in the red.

Of course, Hillary can argue that the supers may change their mind between now and the convention, and that's why she'll continue to campaign even after all the elections are held, working to shift those that have come out for Obama and trying to keep hers from defecting. In other words, she can keep campaigning, having meetings and running commercials to try to get citizens to pressure superdelegates to switch sides.

However, it's all highly unlikely. It's also damaging to her credibility, the Democratic Party, the "downticket Dems" (other Democrats on the ballots), and the new voters. It has a high "disgust" factor.


It's almost akin to saying that Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul can still be the GOP nominee because there is a decent chance McCain will have serious health issues between now and the Republican convention.

I do think she's hurt the party by the way she's campaigned. I'll tell you what I think. I think there are a lot of SDs who want to endorse Obama, and prior to the Wrightapalooza, I think they were holding off to not further alienate voters like you. Now I think they have another reason: They want to see if Wright tanks Obama in NC and IN.

Nobody is 'in control' of the SD's, certainly not the DNC. There isn't a 'Super Delegate Chalet' where they all hang out together strategize on what to do today or tomorrow. They tend to move just as voters do, in their own sweet time and based on their own perceptions.

I expect a continued movement of SD's to Obama. I expect it to hit some critical mass, at which point the remaining SD's will move en masse. As long as the movement is toward Senator Obama and away from Senator Clinton I think that trajectory is inevitable. If something happens that interrupts that flow then it could change the outcome, otherwise it's just a matter of time.

It doesn't appear that Obama has the nomination wrapped up, yet. I'm not sure that Hillary is hurting the Democratic Party by not dropping out. I don't think that her dropping out or not at this point will have much influence on the outcome of the general election.

I think that the Super Delegates probably feel the same way. They're waiting for the process to play out. Some of them are jumping in now in an effort to influence the outcome. They've obviously been promised something by the campaign they're endorsing. The others are still holding their cards.

Politics involves a lot of swapping. Swapping votes, swapping endorsements, swapping influence. The principals don't hate each other as much as we would like to believe. That's part of the problem, imo. I wish that the Democrats in Congress felt as strongly about Republicans as I do.

Obama needs the seasoning and the angst and dealing with the political fire.
However if he loses in November, his political career is over.
If he throws his support to someone like Clark or Colin Powell or Gore or even Hillary now, he gets all the glory, respect & eventually the presidency when he is ready to run the country.

Let's face facts - the GOP will slaughter Obama with The Wright Stuff all thru next October & will win Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio & even Pennsylvania.

getting started. You guys kill me with this "political career over" business.
Hannity says the same thing, trying to get the credit for ruining the guy. As if, if he doesn't become president, his career is over. Ludicrous.

There are still many, and there are still 8 contests. Out of respect for those who give much time and effort to HIllary's campaign, they do not want to appear to be forcing her out.

Also, the voter registrations are WAY UP! They are allowing the 50 state strategy to continue. I don't think the extended race is doing that much damage. It is hurting the downticket's fundraising, and McDubya is getting a free ride, but that will end when the Primary does.

Their role is awkward. It's easier in a sense if they dribble in and then one of the candidates will win after a primary.

that it's just a matter of timing. This is according to sources at Politico. Both campaigns have been notified and Obama is reported to be happy with the results.

Many of them will have to interact with the Clinton's later on, so it is easier on them if they wait for HRC to drop out.

Also they don't want to appear undemocratic, even though high information voters realize that Obama has wrapped up the nomination, many people genuinely don't understand this b/c they dont' understand the math.

are afraid of losing their own donors if they come out for the "wrong" candidate.

"Some super-dels -- in particular, those who are also current candidates for office -- don't want to pick either Hillary or Obama yet partly because they're reluctant to alienate the major donors who have lined up with the candidate they don't pick. That's because these super-dels are themselves hoping to raise money from those donors for their own campaigns."

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/superdels_reluctant_to_take_si.php

Look at the threats Hillary's big major donors have made to the DNC to get their way. I'm sure that is the type of pressure these SD's would also be under.

1) though probably true, not everybody believes that Obama is a shoe in, and some people are afraid of CLinton's wrath.

2) It would appear as though the supers are mucking with the process (given that lots of people think there's still a chance for Clinton to win a majority of pledged delegates)

First, your point 2 is slightly off. It's not her staying in that's the problem. It's what she's doing WHILE she's staying in that's the problem. If she was just going out and presenting her health care plan, and her foreign policy positions, and arguing that she thinks she is the better qualified of two excellent remaining democratic candidates then go for it, campaign through June. No problem.

She's not doing that.

I watched her tell the electorate that she's has extensive experience, McCain has extensive experience... and Obama "has a speech".

I watched her tell the electorate she meets the threshold for being qualifed to be president, McCain certainly meets the threshold, and that we'd "have to ask Obama" if he did.

I watched her stand in front of a national television audience in that farce of a debate Gibson and Stephanopolous butchered, and try to create an association between Obama and Hamas... HAMAS!!!!... based on someone from Hamas that had had an editorial printed in the LA times... then the editorials was reprinted in a church newsletter... and Obama had attended that church... and Oh My God! That's pure Rovian smear tactics and no two ways about it, and then people wonder what makes people like Joe Andrews today turn away from her campaign citing an inability to stomach any more of the same old politics.

I've watched her whipping the voters in Michigan and Florida into a frenzy telling them the democratic party was disenfranchising them because of decisions based on rulings members of her own campaign made, and blaming it all on Obama when she knows perfectly well he had NOTHING to do with it... trying as hard as she can to make it impossible for anyone but her to do well in those states in the GE whatever the consequences if she isn't the nominee.

And she did most of it after over 40 states had voted and Obama had won most of them and taken an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. After it was universally acknowledged among pretty much every objective political analyst in the nation that Obama was the hands down favorite to be the nominee that the democrats needed to beat McCain in November and there was almost no chance Clinton could overtake him. And she didn't care, not one damn little bit, if it meant she could knock him down a peg and make people scared of him and maybe edge out another point or two in the polls to justify her continuing to argue that she has a chance then she was delighted to make the attempt using any means necessary, ethics be damned.

THAT is hurting the party. And I don't see how anyone can possibly deny it.

As for why the supers aren't immediately ending it, on an individual basis you'd have to ask them... but to throw out a couple of the general factors that are probably contributing:

1. The Clinton's have a lot of clout and influence in the party machinery and it is very clear they're calling in every chip they own on this one. We've all heard the reports of how hard she has Bayh working in Indiana trying to hold back supers there from endorsing. She's not having him doing it because she thinks they want to endorse HER.

2. Endorsing puts them in the middle of the bloody battleground Hillary is industriously creating and fanning the flames of, which means they end up taking some of the negative fire she's been directing at Obama. See Richardson and what's already beginning to happen to Joe Andrew for examples.

Beyond that... they're still steadily flowing to Obama at a significantly greater rate than Hillary when Hillary needs them to be going to her by at least a 3 or 4 to 1 margin. They ARE ending it, they're just being damn slow and overly cautious about it.

Anything you need cleared up there?

Most people would've been excited until the last state voted just because of the massive amount of new voters being registered which can only be good for us. It's the GE campaign that she's running that's causing the divisions.

Great post. :)

which, in all likelihood, will still show Obama ahead in (1) elected delegates, (2) states won, and (3) popular vote. They can then safely endorse without fear of repercussion as the numbers will be on their side.

An action I wholeheartedly support. I don't *know* why the remaining SD's are waiting to endorse,
but the optimist in me says that it's an action *they* support as well.

Though it's been a slow and painful process, Obama will have received the majority of the pledged delegate vote on May 20th when Oregon and Kentucky go to the polls.

Refresher: there are 3253 pledged delgates, so half + 1 is 1627, which is about 400 shy of the total needed to win, 2024. Current standing is:

Obama: 1490 PD's + 244 SD's = 1734 total to date
Clinton: 1336 PD's + 265 SD's = 1601 total to date

If Obama and Clinton split the remaining pledged delegates in the remaining races, they would each receive 204 more PD's, for new totals of Obama = 1938 and Clinton = 1805. Neither would be at 2024 if no more SD's declared before June 3rd.

BUT

If the SD's declare for one or the other before the last race, it will be the race that is perceived as putting Obama over the top, as opposed to super delegates. Also note that at 1938 Obama would only need 86 of the remaining 285 SD's (30%) to win, whereas Clinton would need 219 of the remaining SD's (77%) to win. By coming in one or two at a time for Obama, the SD's are staying under the news radar, so to speak. If 50 or more endorsed at a time, it would be a huge story with lots of, "Are the super delegates going against the American people?" stories, since the media has obviously forgotten that Obama cleaned Clinton's clock all thru February.

I think the DNC would be happy for the race to continue thru MT and SD, but the negativity that has been used to bloody the nominee has caused them to step things up a bit. Hence Dean telling the SD's to get off their butts and choose.

She is a bitch. If you announce for Obama you are called Judas or accused of counterfeiting your birth certificate or some other bull shit.

Actually, I think the "real" reason is they think all the states should be given a chance to vote before the "end it".

#2 is only true because Hillary is running a gutter campaign an deliberately feeding the RWNM and rightwing talking points to hurt her candidacy.

Thus #3 is wrong too except in the sense that she has shown herself to be either unable or unwilling to run a clean, positive campaign so dropping out would be a better alternative.

But I always thought that she would hurt the party more by winning the nomination because she would energize the Republicans and also continue to blur the distinction between Republicans and Republican-lites.

The cynical explanation:
As previous SD's have taught us, endorsing Barack means that any friendship is OVER with the Clintons and Billary will say NASTY things about them to the media. That'd make me hesitate... especially if I was in politics.

Why can't they accept that an endorsement of Barack might not just be a slam against Hillary? Maybe just MAYBE these people ACTUALLY believe Barack is the better candidate. There's no need to SLANDER people just because they don't think you're the best candidate for President of the United States.


The somewhat less cynical explanation:
Imagine a work colleague. You guys are friends. She's nice to you, but not so much to some others in the office. But, she's still YOUR friend and you respect her.

She is up for a promotion. However, you honestly don't think she is the best person for the job. You wouldn't call an office meeting and announce this to your boss and coworkers HUMILIATING your friend. You'd just say nothing, or perhaps say something to the boss quietly, one-on-one. I think that's what's going on here.

The Clintons' vindictiveness, however ...
:scared:

edit: change their to they're up there

I would still be waiting.
I like both candidates. Let the dirt and punches fly and see who's still standing. To paraphrase Mao, this is not a tea party.
Remember, whoever wins has to face the worst that the Republican slime machine can throw at them and *THEN*, if/when they win deal with folks such as Kim, Putin and the other assorted nasties, crazies and bad-asses of the world.
We are just now beginning to get an idea of how Obama can keep standing and counterpunch- will Wright (despite ANYTHING I've read here on DU defending him, yes, even 20 or 30 words taken "out of context" can hurt him; think how we'd react if McCain had a pastor who used the N=word) sink him? Gotta be able to take shots like that from all sides form months to get the gig, years to do the job of POTUS effectively.

These Super Delegates who have not pledged.. many told the Clintons 6 months ago that they'd pledge to them. The Clinton's in turn promised favors, or already have given them favors in the past.

Now the Super Delegates are in a tough position. They know the "right" thing to do is endorse Obama. They know that due to favors owed they should endorse Clinton. So they're holding out - hoping someone else will make the decision for them. If 95% of the remaining super delegates endorse Obama - they can endorse Clinton and it won't matter. However, if they all endorse her even though she doesn't have the popular vote or the pledged delegates... well, they're going to have some serious explaining to do.

So - that's why, IMO

Superdelegates are turning out for Obama. It looks like the "endorsements" Hillary announced today were panicked confirmations that came out after the Andrews defection, which you know is a big damn deal. An Obama win in NC -- which will be big after all the attacks -- will make the flow a torrent, and if Obama pulls the upset in IN, it's a done deal.

The supers haven't flipped for two reasons: respect for the Clintons (not that it's been reciprocated) and timing. Hillary's two-month slime job has combined with the Wright stuff to string the primary out and delay the inevitable, and it looks to me more and more like most members of the Democratic hierarchy really would like Clinton to get the Hell out.

Anyway, that's my explanation and I think it's correct.

I don't think she needs to drop out. If they remaining contests were about the issues instead of all the sliming like the revelations about Sidney Blumenthal supplying the wing nuts with Obama smears then that would be fine.In a perfect world she would STAY IN and they could tag team on McCain instead of pounding each other. Finally to answer your question; they are scared. I don't mean this as hyperbole. they know as long she has the slightest chance to cross the clintons could be dangerous candidates who aren't well established.

would be crowning Obama prematurely. In a word, it's about perception.

There are still many people who are going to vote...If they ended it now the people might not feel right about it.

Why can't hillary supporters understand this ?

or whatever the buzzphrase is would be harmful.

Note that they HAVE been trickling in for him at about 2 -3x the rate for her.


If they all move tomorrow, Hillary's people get to claim disenfranchisement.

Howard Dean said for the first time tonight that Fla and Mi would both be seated at the convention - on the Jon Stewart show -

I thought they were waiting for the defacto nominee to be chosen so THEY could seat the delegates at the convention...apparently he feels like this is imminent.

YMMV