The math that Obama supporters ignore

Obama is likely to finish the primary season up between 100-110 pledged delegates if the slate delegate calculator is any guide. All Senator Clinton needs to do though is receive the support of 85-100 more superdelegates than he has to have a good shot. She wins 450 total, he wins 350 total. She wins the nomination.

Watch the superdelegate total. That's the real one to watch. Especially watch the superdelegate total if Obama loses NC, MT, OR, IN and SD.

And no, the superdelegates in my opinion will not have any hesitation to overturn the pledged delegate leader especially if Clinton pulls out a popular vote victory. Hoyer, Dean, etc, say electability is what counts.

You wanna bet that doesn't happen?

He won't lose those races. He'll be fine.

North Carolina and Oregon the SD's will start to defect. Now, tell me how likely you think that is to happen?

If he wins NC and OR by 6-7 points, it's not massive, but it's good enough to help him hold off this late charge by Hillary.

If he loses NC or wins by just 0.5-2 points, I think it's all over for him superdelegate wise.

they don't see a fresh face that has gotten this much support isn't a winner over a Clinton.

She lost Texas, a must win state, and saw huge leads in "made for her states" shrink away. She is not in any kind of charge whatsoever. It is the top of the ninth; Obama is up to bat and yet Hillary is still screaming to the crowds that "he is going down, I'm a gonna turn this round".

and more voters in Texas supported her.

What about the huge slip on Obama's lead in NC?

When pigs fly....

Even if the Split 50% the rest of the pledged delegates and SPLIT 50-50 the Supers He still wins by 59. Basically the pledged race is over she would need such a high number it cant be reached. Essentially with a 50-50 split in pledged he only needs 66 more SD for a win, and thats it. FOr her to win she would need a 230-64 split of the supers. So for everyone one he gets she gets further and further behind. Even a 1 for 1 doesnt help her. And when a guy like Andrew moves to OBAMA she loses one and it gets worse. FOr me the pledged race is over. OBAMA will win Montana, Oregon and NC, and there is your ball game. She could beat him by 70-30 in every state and STILL be 2 delegates short. Dang wake up!!!

Even if HRH HRC wins every state 60-40, Obama will still cross the 1618 line on the 20th.

:evilgrin:

Hillary won't get that many superdelegates, and they sure won't overturn the elected ones.

and her horrible right wing campaign gone.

I got your back!

They're not going to overturn the voting. Clinton supporters just can't seem to get this.

In fact, the pledged delegates will ensure that Obama will end up with more superdelegates than Clinton.

If he wins the pledged delegates and she wins the popular vote with a last minute stellar performance in primaries, it's more than a little interesting.

Too bad the people that actually matter thing otherwise.

You've bought a pile of garbage. None of this is going to happen, and there isn't even such thing as the "popular vote" in a primary campaign.

are slimmer than any of you ae willing to accept. Even if she does win the PV it won't be sizable enough to pass the smell test.

Please stop listening to Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton about the popular vote. Theres no such thing in a primary.

Concentrate. Caucuses prevent an accurate count. It's real easy to comprehend. Barack Obama will be ahead where it counts.......the delegate count. That's what will be looked at. Not some popular vote that doesn't exist for crying out loud.

Throw out the numbers from all the states who have voted. It's the delegate count that comes from those states that matter. Geez.

And on a side note, just want to say hello to the poster known as Jenmito.

And the number DROPS by the day!

AND SDs are SWITCHING from Hillary to Obama.

But nice try.

SDs are smart enough to know that, even if the common man isn't.


Everyone is assuming SDs are as dumb as they are.

If so, you must be happy with the outcome.

But now I do, and put little to no significance on the popular vote of 2000. In fact, the popular vote doesn't even lend credence to arguments of why Gore should have won regardless. Its just a fun fact people pull out of the air as a zinger.

Does this make me happy about the result? No...why would understanding a flawed process and how/why it works make me happy about how that process plays out? Do you understand death? Does that make you happy when people die?

The electoral college is decreed in the Constitution and, last time I checked, that was the law.

It sucks that Gore lost but until the electoral college is abolished, that's how it's done.

Let's see if they perform the function they were meant to do.

Obama gets a couple more new ones. Today he got another one of Hillary's. Andrews former head of the DNC appointed by the Clintons, first a SD for Hillary came over Obama. :-)

What if someone like Gore, Pelosi or Edwards endorses HRC due to electability after June 3 and encourages a huge block of superdelegates or sways a huge bloc of Obama supers to join them.

That's the thing.

And it's not undemocratic. Superdelegates are a known part of the process. They can do whatever they want. It shouldn't cost us votes in the GE.

To Obama.

that just might be the reason why the SDs are not backing Clinton. She is damn lucky they are still being nice to her and not telling her to go home.

that their own chance of winning goes down with Hillary at the top of the ticket. And with Obama at the top of the ticket with his millions of new voters, their wins are more secure.

You people are truly dense if you think that isn't the case - their own campaign goals are every bit as important as the presidency to them.

first said he would support his constituency, but now says he's for the Big O. Well, I'm a member of his constituency. I'm a Hillary supporter.

on a helluva lot more levels than any of you have.

Obama had HAD this race since Super Tuesday. EVERY insider knows this in DC and in the media - that media has kept up with this pretense of the Clintons is only to keep Obama knocked down as much as possible for McCain, just as Clintons are - they've been running their Hillary2012 campaign since shortly after Super Tuesday. Neither TeamClinton or the corporate media has ANY respect for her supporters who they have concluded CAN be fooled into believing there is a chance for her to win.

The supers were giving her the room to go out gracefully and on a high note, like the expected Penn win, but now they see Clintons only hurting the party for McCain - and THAT is why supers are coming out in greater numbers over this next week DESPITE the Clintons' pleas.

Even under the most optimistic predictions (Clinton winning WV and KY by 40%; winning PR by 30%; Oregon, SD, MT, NC, IN splitting 50/50), even if that happens, Clinton STILL needs to win the super-d's at a % greater than 60-40. That's highly unlikely, especially the sooner they start deciding.

And that doesn't mean Clinton wins. It means that neither of them would reach the magic number. Clinton actually would have to garner greater than 70% of the remaining super-d's to reach the magic number.

Sorry, but that's not going to happen.

because it tells caucus state supers that their citizens don't count.

Secondly, if she is 100-110 behind, 85-100 Supers won't cut the mustard unless both numbers actually are 100.

Finally, giving Hillary the benefit of the doubt by your numbers, assuming everything stays static from todays's SD numbers, Hillary has a 21 SD advantage (maybe that is what you were trying to say with your 85-100 numbers?)

That means that of the 285 remaining she would need to win 79 + 103 to break even with him (or 182 of 285) or just under 64%.

In the rose-colored case you present, she still has to somehow reverse the trend of Supers with arguments that have already been tried and found wanting.

What happens if she doesn't win NC, MT, OR, IN, AND SD???

It has been over since WI.

Delegates try to proportionally equalizes inconsistant voting systems and uncontrollable circumstances that can supress or boost states turnout, as to give each state an equal say (proportionally to their population) as to who is to run the country.

Obama currently has a pledged delegate lead of 133.

It is expected that that number will not significantly change because of the way delegates are distributed by proportional distribution.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html

Clinton's lead in superdelegates has declined from 97 to 17.

Obama only needs 137 pledged delegates to get the majority of pledged delegates and he will achieve that number on May 20th.

At that time a large number of "Pelosi Delegates = Super Delegates who have pledged to follow the majority of pledged delegates will endorse Obama. Included in that number are a number of Clinton supporters - which will of course put her even farther behind (which happened today when one of her super delegates switched to Obama.


Obama only needs a total of 283 total delegates to reach 2024 Clinton needs 423






While there are a number of SDs who have either changed from Clinton to Obama or said they will when he gets the pledged majority there is not a single Obama SD that has gone the other way.

On May 20th with his majority in pledged delegates, Pelosi delegates and the continuing rate of Super delegates going his way (80% since super tuesday) He almost certainly will have the 2024 needed for the nomination.

It will be over in Oregon.

Actually no, it's spin: She will win because she will win. Screw math.

It's an All-American condition where the complete abdication of reason meets with the approval of "educators." :eyes:

No Cheerleader Left Behind

Throw all assumptions about this race out of the window. That's all I'm saying.

the swing of delegates in the next 4 primaries will not be more than 15 one way or another.

On May 20th Obama will have the pledged majority. They are not going to overturn the will of the pledged majority period.


Your post was on the math that Obama supporters ignore and now you say you agree with our math but you think some catalismic event will occur that will cause 100 super delegates to radically change.


Super Delegates are deciding - for Obama - If Clinton hadn't gotten 4 from New York today she would have had another day of humiliation.

BTW 7 more Obama super delegates are lined up between now and Monday 3 for IL 2 MD 1 each for SC, LA,


But here is the key thing that Clinton supporters refuse to face. If in the event that Obama vanished from the face of the earth by a UFO then the 55% of the party that does not want Hillary Clinton would find someone else.

She started this campaign at 42% and she has remained at that level the whole time. In one year of campaigning she has convinced virtually no one that was not already in her corner.

If she wins by about 70-30 in every remaining contest I personally would want her to be the nominee. Actually I would want a Democrat to be the nominee, but at least she'll have a hard time vetoing Dem bills if we can take true control of Congress.

But here's a little help for you to make that happen:

She lost Texas, a must win, and it changed nothing. She kept right on going.

feeling that if the situation was reversed, they would all be singing a different tune about Obama........it's useless........

I know one thing....it's not too smart to count your chickens or to count out the Clintons'!!

Popular vote + electability factor + winner of large states/dem strongholds = WINNER!!

**Don't forget Florida/Michigan should be resolved soon!

...we just know it ain't bloody likely.

Hillary could win a majority of the remaining contests with 60% of the vote each, and have the superdelegates break for her 2:1, and Obama would still be the nominee. Outright.

What she needs is to win out with at least 65% of the vote and have the supes break more like 4:1 for her. But she ain't gonna win NC (no matter how hard her supporters pray for such a development). She's not winning OR. She probably won't win MT or SD, either. Hell, IN isn't completely off the table for Obama. Finally, the supes look like they're going to break more like 50:50, which doesn't help Hillary at all.

The problem for Hillary is that under most (if not ALL) realistic scenarios she loses outright. Whereas it'll take a small miracle to give her the nomination.

following the super delegate lead for Hillary, it's shrinking, not growing and will continue to do so:

http://www.swivel.com/graphs/image/27712508

She doesn't have any valid math on her side. Suppositions as to what may or may not happen are complete BS. You hillarybots must really hate reality....

hillry is toast

At 52%-48%, it's a "dead heat" in superdelegates (according to Hillary camp's logic of calling the current delegate situation a dead heat.) And it used to be a 80%/20% landslide for Clinton.

Out of the 795 SDs, 508 have already endorsed. Clinton is ahead by 20. Extrapolate that, and she'll be ahead by 31 superdelegates based on those raw numbers.

But when you actually factor in the real trends in the change in superdelegate endorsements, it can't get any more obvious that they are going for Obama, even after the PA loss. Clinton's lead will shrivel and be gone in a few weeks.

For your math assumption to happen, Senator Clinton would need to win every remaining contest by 20 points, and even though Senator Obama would win the majority of pledged delegates, you assume that Senator Clinton would gain 175 more superdelegates (65%) compared to 94 more superdelegates (35%) for Senator Obama.

Senator Clinton has won only one contest by a 20-point margin or better: Arkansas. Yet you assume it is possible for her campaign to achieve a 20-point margin win the next nine contests straight. :crazy:

Here's a graph of your assumption:

You're right, electibility counts and they know that - which is why they are leaving Clinton in the dust.
As for SD's overturning pledged delegates, you're wrong - that would be the absolute end of the Democratic Party and every SD and Dean know this.

Like Clinton did today?

Just proves what a smart decision I made to keep them out of my line of sight!

What a plan, Hillary, you non-elitist millionaire.

Thanks for playing!

The proper analysis is to calculate how many delegates Obama is away from the nomination, because once he reaches 2025 it doesn't matter if Hillary is 10 behind him or 200 behind him, she's done. Hillary is done because of the proportional seating. Did you know that 3/4s of Obama's wins have been by 16 points or more? When Hillary lost, she lost BIG, and that's why she's so far behind in the delegate count. She should have been able to win Wisconsin, but she didn't even keep it close, losing by 18 points. It's okay to lose a state like VA to Obama, but losing it by 29 points is like 3 landslide victories in 1.