Note: The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Obama's Image Slips, His Lead Over Clinton Disappears

Public Support for Free Trade Declines

Released: May 1, 2008

Summary of Findings

Democratic voters are not as positive about Barack Obama as they were a month ago. Somewhat smaller percentages of Democrats describe Obama in favorable terms, and he has lost his lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Nationally, Democratic voters are about evenly divided between Obama and Clinton; Obama holds a slight 47% to 45% edge. In late March, the Illinois senator held a 49% to 39% lead over his New York rival.



The tightening Democratic race reflects a modest but consistent decline in Obama's personal image rather than improved impressions of Clinton. Fewer Democrats ascribe positive qualities to Obama than did so a month ago, with white working-class Democrats, in particular, expressing more skeptical views of the Illinois senator. Since late February, his unfavorable rating has risen six points among all Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. At the same time, Clinton's unfavorable rating among Democratic voters also has increased by seven points.

Compared with a month ago, race and class are now bigger drivers of preferences in the Democratic contest. Obama has lost ground among whites - especially white working-class voters - who now prefer Clinton by an even larger margin than they did in late March. Her lead among whites who did not attend college has increased from 10 points in March to 40 points today, and her lead among white Democrats who earn less than $50,000 a year has increased from two points to 24 points. Clinton has taken a 10-point lead among white male Democratic voters - erasing Obama's advantage with the group - and she now runs better among Democrats under age 50 than she had previously....

(more at link) <http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=414>

Section 3: The General Election

<http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1294>

While the dynamics of the Democratic primary contest continue to fluctuate, voter preferences in general election matchups between either Obama or Clinton and McCain remain stable. Among registered voters nationwide, Barack Obama holds a six-point edge over McCain (50% to 44%) while Clinton leads McCain by a comparable margin (49% to 45%). Neither race has changed over the past two months, with Clinton and Obama consistently holding slim leads over McCain.

The preferences of independent voters have shifted, particularly in the Obama-McCain matchup. A month ago, 49% of independents favored McCain, while 42% favored Obama. In the current survey, Obama holds a 52% to 41% advantage over McCain among independents. Hillary Clinton, by comparison, continues to struggle to win over independent voters; while Obama currently leads McCain by 11 points, Clinton trails McCain by five (45% to 49%).

While Obama clearly has more appeal than Clinton to independent voters, :hi:this advantage is counterbalanced by his struggles with conservative and moderate Democrats:hi:. Overall, 18% of Democratic voters say they would support McCain over Obama, and the number rises to 23% of conservative and moderate Democrats. By comparison, just 12% of Democrats overall, and 14% of conservative and moderate Democrats, favor McCain over Clinton. Liberal Democrats are equally loyal to the party's nominee whether it is Obama or Clinton.

(Graphic at link) <http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1294>

About the Survey (Pew) <http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1297>

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Abt SRBI, Inc. among a nationwide sample of 1,502 adults, 18 years of age or older, from April 23-27, 2008. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey

Zogby <http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1301>

Survey Methodology 4/30/08 thru 5/1/08

Zogby International commissioned a telephone survey of .

Approximately <30> questions are asked. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.