Clinton gaining in Oregon, now only down 6. OR once seen as a sure thing for Obama

-snip-

With three weeks until Oregon's Democratic primary, Sen. Barack Obama edges Sen. Hillary Clinton, 50% to 44%, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

Compared to an identical tracking poll three weeks ago, Obama is down 2, Clinton is up 2 -- "small movement to be sure, and within the survey's margin of sampling error, but movement away from Obama and to Clinton nonetheless."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/01/surveyusa_obama_leads_in_oregon.html

She has momentum from her big Pennsylvania win and the momentum increase she should get from winning IN and then a blow out in WV the week before 5/20 (OR and KY vote on 5/20) alone could be enough to slingshot to victory in Oregon. She has a shot at running the table the rest of the way, with the exception of North Carolina. Wow. Oregon. Oregon was always seen as a very pro-Obama state because of the large population of so-called "latte liberals" in Portland. If he can't win Oregon...

The double digit projected win which turned out to be shy of 10%? That big win? :eyes:

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = a "real" win

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech

:headbang:
rocknation

10% was the magic number. As 9% or 11% wouldn't have affected the delegate count substantially, I'm far from sure what was so "magic" about 10%.

It highlights -- as if we needed to once again -- the intellectual poverty and downright laziness of the media herd. They have the analytical rigor of a flock of chickens chasing the evening's scattered feed.

Speaking of magic numbers, what is it for Obama in NC? Two weeks ago he said 9.3% is not truly winning. Now he says 50%+1 is winning in NC. Which is it?

1 vote. Any victories for Obama in any of the upcoming states end this.

Why do you think her numbers moved immediately after her win? When a candidate enjoys a big win the numbers move. Remember the halycon days when Obama used to have big wins and he would enjoy bounces? Seems like forever ago...

Only political junkies care about the difference between 9.3% and 10%. In the real world no one cared about that 0.7%.

You're right about the 9.3% vs 10% being meaningful to only political junkies, and especially Obama supporters, I have to admit.

And to your initial post, yesterday he was up by 4 points -- probably too early today to tell but yes, the difference has tightened considerably, much to our (Obama supporters) dismay.

I've said all along that I'm not counting anyone in or anyone out until it's truly over -- there have been too many "it's a done deal" circumstances that have fallen by the wayside (McCain's demise, for example) to be sure of any outcome.

:hi:

The Hillary rolls out the DLC "we must save the democratic party from the elitist" prepping for her August announcment of her Independant run to take back OUR country from those who don't know any better.

Clinton will lose Oregon and the nomination.

Hill won't win Oregon.

The neighbors went to Obama in big margins.

The Washington caucus (10% turnout) was won by Obama 68-31. The Washington primary, which had more than double the turnout of the caucus, was won by him by only 51-46. Oregon is a primary and all people will have equal access to voting.

Whenever Clinton gets a much needed victory, the superdelegates make up the Obama deficit. Look at what happened after PA. The delegate difference is back at 139 again.

state? Having family involved in politics in each region of the state? She will lose Oregon.

Which is why she is going to lose.

"They are already dead, but they just don't know it..."

Oh, and you might want to actually look at the polls. Oregon was never seen as a sure thing for Obama. He's only had the lead there the last two SUSA polls.

amazed at how many Obama signs are everywhere. I ddn't see one Hillary sign the whole day.

Yet he has been consistently losing lately. :thumbsup:

K&R
:party: :woohoo:
:applause:

:toast: :woohoo:

Oregon is taylor made for Obama.

As a grass rootser, I can tell you with no shame that Hillary is not popular here. Oregon isn't PA or Indiana...

I hope the Obama campaign has the sense to run ads out of Boise...since that is the only media the Whole east side of Oregon gets. We cant even get the Oregonian (main Oregon newspaper out of Portland) over here...and by the way the Oregonian web-site sucks....not readable.

;)

small a word.

for ANY of her wins to actually count.

:headbang:
rocknation

She isn't popular with these folks elsewhere either.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5772036&mesg_id=5772036

I don't believe for one minute Hillary is gaining ground. There has been little movement in her campaign here.

What you posted is actually indicative of how strong she is despite her financial handicap. :thumbsup:

vote for a black man. No in Oregon, probably no in Indiana and no in NC.

:bounce: